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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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Yeah I know. Just talking junk to Mack. The EPS is beautiful at 500mb.
6z EPS or the one from last night? Cause I nearly cried when I saw that look on the 0z

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8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

6z EPS or the one from last night? Cause I nearly cried when I saw that look on the 0z

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The 0z ensembles. I cant get the image to load for some reason. Has huge -EPO with split flow and even a hint of a -NAO.

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The 0z ensembles. I cant get the image to load for some reason. Has huge -EPO with split flow and even a hint of a -NAO.
This from hr240? Or did it get even better in the 11-15 day range?1e7d53a4934a4e60e1fc81e823bec52e.jpg

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Maps:

1. GEFS mean w/ sleet (Largest since 06z yesterday) 

D11EBB6E-60EA-4C72-8961-E8B54A6B1A1A.thumb.png.a9b0cd52a0ca0f0fd0fb428381869774.png

2. GEFS members w/ sleet

A7925BC6-861F-44F9-A2A0-8C9A954809D3.thumb.png.8d089884c27de40e55c90f09522ef13f.png
3. GEFS Mean without sleet

1F2526F5-0D43-4F1C-B2F6-FFA2E03AF6F1.thumb.png.b35186364605e6a642ba4eaee581417d.png
4. GEFS members without sleet

AC8D2226-F8C0-4D92-8058-4D89169933D9.thumb.png.24a5aceab2308c948392513bd644895e.png

5. EPS Mean (Highest run I’ve seen the entire year)36BE4E98-38A5-40EE-BEE1-F2537BE83D92.thumb.png.d502cb3dacdc7cd339e84c33c290c51f.png

6. EPS Members 1-25

8041D0FF-A996-4936-8730-8904305943E1.thumb.png.8806c85550156aa1d13a3f45eecd2c34.png

7. EPS Members 26-50

0B3E72CE-F386-4223-8078-5418B930145A.thumb.png.75863faa1fe0db823275e382414ff329.png

8. EPS percentages for over an inchA17FEC99-6BEA-40BA-8468-B313FE3FD98F.thumb.png.4a1a9916d752e04b4434aa92b6beccfa.png

9. 24hrs snow Meteogram For GSO2FAD71B2-F142-4750-841C-71E98835114B.thumb.png.54b06d493193f9c242346f98cef139af.png

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Maps:

1. GEFS mean w/ sleet (Largest since 06z yesterday) 

D11EBB6E-60EA-4C72-8961-E8B54A6B1A1A.thumb.png.a9b0cd52a0ca0f0fd0fb428381869774.png

2. GEFS members w/ sleet

A7925BC6-861F-44F9-A2A0-8C9A954809D3.thumb.png.8d089884c27de40e55c90f09522ef13f.png

3. GEFS Mean without sleet

1F2526F5-0D43-4F1C-B2F6-FFA2E03AF6F1.thumb.png.b35186364605e6a642ba4eaee581417d.png

4. GEFS members without sleet

AC8D2226-F8C0-4D92-8058-4D89169933D9.thumb.png.24a5aceab2308c948392513bd644895e.png

5. EPS Mean (Highest run I’ve seen the entire year)36BE4E98-38A5-40EE-BEE1-F2537BE83D92.thumb.png.d502cb3dacdc7cd339e84c33c290c51f.png

6. EPS Members 1-25

8041D0FF-A996-4936-8730-8904305943E1.thumb.png.8806c85550156aa1d13a3f45eecd2c34.png

7. EPS Members 26-50

0B3E72CE-F386-4223-8078-5418B930145A.thumb.png.75863faa1fe0db823275e382414ff329.png

8. EPS percentages for over an inchA17FEC99-6BEA-40BA-8468-B313FE3FD98F.thumb.png.4a1a9916d752e04b4434aa92b6beccfa.png

9. 24hrs snow Meteogram For GSO2FAD71B2-F142-4750-841C-71E98835114B.thumb.png.54b06d493193f9c242346f98cef139af.png

p18 on the GEFS leveling that 73 redux... Holy moly...@mackerel_sky

 

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That's one of the best gefs runs in the long range I've seen.

Eps as always not as enthused but still looks very good at h5. Hopefully it ticks up in the mean. Getting to the point where im afraid to keep looking at the models because im afraid theyre going to fall apart.  I'm a weenie. :weenie:

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Punting this pattern change over what the OP GFS spit out at 240+ hours seems like a bit of an overreaction. 

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All the weather pros say pay attention to ensembles in the long run. It would be our luck for the Operational runs to be correct. I’m sticking with ensembles for now 

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40 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Somebody better post some pretty ensembles, quickly!! 12 z gfs was a bigger dumpster fire than 6z! The rain/snow line is around Chicago on the 23rd! Delayed, but not denied, yadda yadda

Take a plane out of GSP to Chicago. :D 

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Man, you guys gotta be lovin the 12z gefs. Really upped the odds of a SE frozen event. Considering how far out in time the window is it's remarkable how many member solutions drop snow/ice/sleet in the SE. Hurry up and wait for now but at least there's reason for some optimism 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Man, you guys gotta be lovin the 12z gefs. Really upped the odds of a SE frozen event. Considering how far out in time the window is it's remarkable how many member solutions drop snow/ice/sleet in the SE. Hurry up and wait for now but at least there's reason for some optimism 

As I was joking about up in your thread, we are more disturbed by the 12z op than we are enthused by the 12z gefs.  We are like beaten dogs.

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, you guys gotta be lovin the 12z gefs. Really upped the odds of a SE frozen event. Considering how far out in time the window is it's remarkable how many member solutions drop snow/ice/sleet in the SE. Hurry up and wait for now but at least there's reason for some optimism 

I don’t know if you heard but the OP sucked and we have no hope.

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I don’t know if you heard but the OP sucked and we have no hope.

Anyone who frets an op run needs to click on hr 192 panel of the gfs on TT and click previous run 10 times and see what amazing consistency there is run over run. 

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16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I don’t know if you heard but the OP sucked and we have no hope.

Missed you WidreMann

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