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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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GFS can’t predict a 5 day away cold shot, but this day twelve dumper fire heat wave it showed at 18 z, at 12 days plus!
Get the preemergent ready

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High temperature today in Charleston, WV was 80.  Record high was previously 71.  Normal high for the day is 42.

 

Here's the temperature anomaly map for January to date + the GFS 7 day forecast 

T9T5JpO.png

 

Pattern thus far since Dec 1 has been about as bad as it can be for wintry prospects.  The blues (negative anomalies) are in all the wrong places.

MME2Sc2.png

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Some of you need to find a new hobby because you clearly have no interest in being good at this one.

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Some of you judge a model run based on storms that are ten plus days out. It’s absolutely inane. You would’ve been laughed at and then summarily banned from places like WWBB and probably Eastern. If you give a crap about a snowfall mean 12 days out, you are almost beyond worth salvaging as a contributor here. 
 

meanwhile, 18z GEFS says it’s going to get cold. 

7E789410-722B-4E07-9801-ECEC6C5E8911.png

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

What are you even talking about?

I'm just hoping the OP comes around at some point. I feel like we are losing the cold in the long run. Maybe the 00Z bouces our way.

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Just now, Extreme NEGA said:

I'm just hoping the OP comes around at some point. I feel like we are losing the cold in the long run. Maybe the 00Z bouces our way.

The 18z gefs 500mb  pattern looks really close to the past several runs. 

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I'm just hoping the OP comes around at some point. I feel like we are losing the cold in the long run. Maybe the 00Z bouces our way.
We are not losing the cold, just the fantasy storms that never were gonna happen. I said this the other day: we need the pattern shift FIRST, THEN we need everything else

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

We are not losing the cold, just the fantasy storms that never were gonna happen. I said this the other day: we need the pattern shift FIRST, THEN we need everything else

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I Agree. Maybe then we can chase storms inside 10 days.

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1 minute ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Yea it gets better around the 20th

 

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

This is gonna be interesting...677b5605c17cdc0a7f54b37c1e4f5478.jpg

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I'd bet it gets squashed but that's just the way I like them at this range lol

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

High temperature today in Charleston, WV was 80.  Record high was previously 71.  Normal high for the day is 42.

Wow, a +38 °F anomaly.  That is something special right there.

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Man, you know the pattern is bad when you have to worry about insolation overhead at night. Fromthe RAH AFD (Long Range).

 

Above normal temperatures will continue through much of the period,
especially during the overnight hours thanks to plentiful insolation
remaining overhead.

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