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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

32 at the tip of Florida...

587fb21d91986e013a036b9440ba4a04.jpg

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That is one hell of a polar vortex. Highly doubtful it will verify but would be amazing if it did.

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27 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Can I just point out how far south the freezing temps go in Mexico?... 20°N (same latitude as Hawaii)b6067831b32f64dd1f08462b706000d9.jpg

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That's high elevation also.

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2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

32 at the tip of Florida...

587fb21d91986e013a036b9440ba4a04.jpg

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If this "materializes" should be great getting rid of iguanas ..

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2 hours ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Is it a block? 

gfs_mslpa_nhem_37.png

 

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think the low N of Maine, is acting as a temporary block, or temporary-NAO, by it bombing out, slowing things down. That could make the storm go more S in future runs , if it’s stronger or furthe S

I think the high North of that would be your blocking high with the low you're ralking about acting as the 50/50 low, though it would be better a bit South of there. The high over Maine is the cold air source. One would think the Missouri low would be a bit South of there, or at least push SE from there with the high, though I think we want a high in the 1040 range and the low over LA instead. That particular look (though obviously fantasy at this range) looks to put most of us in the warm sector looking for ZR if anything. IDK, maybe Grit or Wow or someone better than me could chime in? 

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3 hours ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Is it a block? 

gfs_mslpa_nhem_37.png

It's best to look at H5 here.  This is not a "keep the storm to the south" look.  Dont let the surface pressure map fool you.  High pressure can look good, but if it's not being anchored or reinforced, it will move out as a storm moves in, giving the illusion that the storm is plowing into a block.  If I had a nickel for every time I've heard how a storm can't plow into a high pressure area....

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_37.thumb.png.bcb4e714785fe49fd1e01006464b9ad2.png

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I know a lot of us will be watching ahead looking for the possible pattern change,  but man, oh man,  at the coming setup. NWS has my low over the next 7 days at 51! Not sure I've ever seen a week like this in January before, at least not for that long of a stretch. Highs 15-20 above normal and lows 20-25 above! Severe weather and possible tornadoes for much of the SE, rain and storms all the way from upper midwest through New England. This is totally nuts. 

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2 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Grit, you feeling like something like that could happen or pure weenie run? 

With the MJO making it's run out into the Pacific (phase 7-8), it does make sense that we would see better chances at western ridging.  So, that's step 1.  These last 2 runs are on the extreme side, so hard to count on that...but it shows the potential

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With the MJO making it's run out into the Pacific (phase 7-8), it does make sense that we would see better chances at western ridging.  So, that's step 1.  These last 2 runs are on the extreme side, so hard to count on that...but it shows the potential
hr384, Miller A possibly brewing360246b78c731eed727e2537a1a778dd.jpg

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