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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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I'd say, with the usual caveats of long lead times, that our first window of potentiallly having something to track soon is showing up anywhere from the 20th-24th. Lots of GEFS members with a trailing wave behind the weekend storm, varying in timing but all with some degree of wintry precip on the northern periphery. 

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

latest MJO on the EURO... Phase 7 inbound 29cd6e28ff50579e3e05986029bb4af7.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

It looks like that curves back into the circle, then probably back into phases 3 and 4, completely bypassing the colder phases of 8,1, and 2 no? That's not at all what we want to see going into Feb. Just a couple days ago we saw it modeled with a much wider arc into 7 looking to go into 8. If this is correct well have a very short window and that could be it.

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It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. 

Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days.    

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It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. 
Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days.    
This is the GEFSf70eb703bb598c1496c14517ecc5a24f.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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