Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: where? All of SNE if euro is right. It takes it up onto CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Patience will be a virtue this week. The PNA doesn't really shift until almost as that 1/18-19 event is happening. So anything up to that point including the 1/18 threat is very susceptible to westward solutions. The good news for 1/18 tough is that the antecedent airmass is good and there's like a 1040 high preceding it so that is a decent setup for a good thump even on a somewhat ugly track. Didn’t like Scooters post thought about EPS shifting milder each successive run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 TWC app has me getting 4 to 8 by Saturday morning. Whoo hoo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Didn’t like Scooters post thought about EPS shifting milder each successive run Previous runs were redeveloping the low well south of us. Didn't seem very likely based on the pattern. I think the front ender triple point over the cape scenario is more realistic. But there's a long way to go for that one. Still 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All of SNE if euro is right. It takes it up onto CNE which event are we talking about? the 18/19 is not all rain on EPS, OP yeah not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Previous runs were redeveloping the low well south of us. Didn't seem very likely based on the pattern. I think the front ender triple point over the cape scenario is more realistic. But there's a long way to go for that one. Still 7+ days out. Either way though no? We have said a cutter is not off the table for this window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Not sold on anything cold here in SE New England coastline before the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Jesus I could not be more careful with my words and people still jump. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Either way though no? We have said a cutter is not off the table for this window... Yeah but kevin doesn't really listen to us when we say that. Tends to block it out...though it looks like he's back on the reverse psychology train talking about rains to Maine. I'll just say that 1/18 has more going for it than just about any storm recently. Not exactly a high bar to clear but there's a good high out ahead of it so t wouldn't take much to get some good snows....it could still redevelop south of us off NJ too...I just wouldn't bet on that at the moment. I'd be more on the SWFE front ender train. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Words like “lots of time left” and “ not sure I’d be all in” aren’t exactly ones to instill confidence. The point was that it’s not a lock to be a widespread snow. I’m not sure what else I could have said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 It’s very SWFE looking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus I could not be more careful with my words and people still jump. 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Words like “lots of time left” and “ not sure I’d be all in” aren’t exactly ones to instill confidence. The point was that it’s not a lock to be a widespread snow. I’m not sure what else I could have said. What you said was fine..it was perfectly understood by most everyone except one guy from Tolland, that always needs to be reassure that it’s a “Snower” 7-8 days out. It’s just incredibly poor reading comprehension on his part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12z EPS in the next 8 days has a average of 17.2 here I think we get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: What you said was fine..it was perfectly understood by most everyone except one guy from Tolland, that always needs to be reassure that it’s a “Snower” 7-8 days out. It’s just incredibly poor reading comprehension on his part. And maybe it goes East again. Chicago is the latest in the last minute East shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s very SWFE looking right now. KFS interpretation: southern water fooks everyone. = rains to Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EPS in the next 8 days has a average of 17.2 here I think we get something Wut? Where do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Wut? Where do you see that? Ineedglasses? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: 12z EPS in the next 8 days has a average of 17.2 here I think we get something Low temp average...sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Low temp average...sure. Yes. It certainly can’t be snow accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Not that it means much, but CFS monthlies just flipped March from warm to cold I'd be stunned if March was anything but cold & snowy. Really think the -EPO/+PNA will do a hand-off to the -NAO/AO sometime in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be stunned if March was anything but cold & snowy. Really think the -EPO/+PNA will do a hand-off to the -NAO/AO sometime in February. Agree.. at least first half of March. Some signs the NAO may not take that long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree.. at least first half of March. Some signs the NAO may not take that long. Take a look at the 12z operational Euro ... and note days 7 - 10 on that run, from SE of Hawaii all the way around to S of Bermuda off the U.S. SE Coast along/within that lower latitude belt. Notice the heights are falling ( finally) ..shedding some +4 + +6 dm anomalies ? That is a recession of the Hadely Cell modeled in the dailies right there... and I suggest the NAO starts to show some signs of switching modes ( or more sustainably/chances in doing so..) if/when that happens, because that in the deep south, in a transitive sense, will couple with a the AO and begin to pull that index down, with relaxing(er) mid latitude flows, and the onset of blocking also over Kamch., Alaska across the polar arc to Scandinavia et al actually... That's the integral. The AO having wended it's way demonstratively positive the way it has, is purely a function of the previous HC invading the lower Ferrel Cell... and guess what, we now see a very robust phase 7-8-1-2 in the MJO from all agency. These phases tend to correlate with the -AO, as they lend to storm/cyclone field activation along the interface of the HC/Ferrel cell latitudes... basically, 40th parallel ( ) ... and that means the Ferrel trade/Easterlies along 60 N are enhanced... and that's also concomitant with -AO. Starting to see the puzzle come together, and when I saw that balloon pop and deflate on the 12z Euro...that was like canary in the coal mine I was looking for - Yeah, February is a whole 'nother paradigm if these signals continue to emerge - they'll parlay into very interesting verifications. And it may happen before the end of this month, too. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Wut? Where do you see that? Was definitely looking at something else lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 18z GFS big hit next weekend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Of course ...the Euro tried to signal that a month ago and it didn't happen. So... I think in this case though, there are attendant clues that may lend credence to the broader -scoped paradigm shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Well done Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GFS big hit next weekend The cold biased op GFS at day 7, what could possibly go wrong??..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well done Maine. They are going to get blasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The cold biased op GFS at day 7, what could possibly go wrong??..... What? Every model shows a front end. Euro has been way too amped all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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