Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 That’s like a 2015 look. The year decks collapsed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A little off topic. Lemme ask you. How unusual is the pattern we are seeing in the 1-7 day timeframe with a strong Bermuda high in January creating such unusually warm departures +15-25. don’t think I have seen that in a while during what should be the coldest time of the year. High usually stays out by the Azores during the winter months.thank you for the response as always. Helping us learn from the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: time to stock up on firewood and fill the oil tanks.....I hope the snow bullseye sets up about 150ish miles to the west, for personal reasons obviously It's not an exact match but the western ridge axis and theme of +AO/+NAO with the low heights just extending straight down into New England are the same. Obviously we can't expect the historic snowfall to repeat but it should be a favorable pattern for some larger snow threats for our region. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are a bit west of the EPS with the ridge axis...esp GEFS (though they have been trending toward EPS) so we may see a bit of a compromise as we get closer but even that would still be a very good pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Big changes in the weeklies. More inline with the EPS starting week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: A little off topic. Lemme ask you. How unusual is the pattern we are seeing in the 1-7 day timeframe with a strong Bermuda high in January creating such unusually warm departures +15-25. don’t think I have seen that in a while during what should be the coldest time of the year. High usually stays out by the Azores during the winter months.thank you for the response as always. Helping us learn from the best It's definitely anomalous for January but it happens every few years I'd say where we get a huge SE ridge bulging up and sending huge height anomalies into our region along with temps over 60F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) is southern hemisphere....that's their version of the AO. Did you mean AO? How much for Auckland? 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 hours ago, jbenedet said: Sell the big wedge on the GFS. GFS did something similar last “tuck event” (Jan 4/5), while mesos never bought in. Similar story to last big ice event that struggled hugely to get 32F isotherm south of ORH. And this setup is a lot warmer still...Fade climo with ++AO, much less southward movement of cold; eastward trajectory predominates. Completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Fwiw - the ESRL are a 'little' more robust with -EPO ... One thing I'm noticing, the MJO from the NCEP camp is quite powerful and roaring through phase 5 and 6 over the next 10 days, which is a warm signal for eastern N/A at mid latitudes... It may be that the MJO wave its self, along with it's forcing, are in conflict with the attempted(ing) changes of the N arc of the Pacific. The Euro has a robust wave, but about half the magnitude, and collapses it mid way through Phase 6 ...which in total sort of "synergistic" consideration may be allowing it see more of a dominant WPO-EPO modulation on the our side of the Hemisphere .. comparing to the neggie wave interference of the GEFs. As an afterthought ...maybe that explains some of the GEFs/GFS progressive bias at times ...it tends to wave interference at large scales/integrals ... which would tend to send things on more W-E corrections.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's definitely anomalous for January but it happens every few years I'd say where we get a huge SE ridge bulging up and sending huge height anomalies into our region along with temps over 60F. I know it's December, but growing up I seem to recall every few years we'd have a toasty December day. I even recall in my 20s going out in Christmas shopping deliberately in my shorts with temps near 70. I think that day is still my warmest December day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I know it's December, but growing up I seem to recall every few years we'd have a toasty December day. I even recall in my 20s going out in Christmas shopping deliberately in my shorts with temps near 70. I think that day is still my warmest December day. That was Dec 15....60s xmas eve and day Dec 14 was also horribly warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, MetHerb said: I know it's December, but growing up I seem to recall every few years we'd have a toasty December day. I even recall in my 20s going out in Christmas shopping deliberately in my shorts with temps near 70. I think that day is still my warmest December day. 12/29/84 is the warmest December day on record for many sites (in terms of anomalies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12/29/84 is the warmest December day on record for many sites (in terms of anomalies). How about early January 2007? Where it hit 71 in albany on January 6th. Not sure the exact pattern at the time but I remember wearing shorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Period of record for BOS (1873 to present) shows 92 days >= 60 degrees in January. So an average of about 0.6 per year. Max of 5 in 1950, a month which was +7.2, with 64 on the 4th, 61 on the 5th, 63 on the 14th, 72 on the 26th and 62 on the 29th. There was a freeze in between each of these (other than the 4th-5th, obviously) so in a sense five major January thaws that month. The 72 is really most impressive: lows were 24 and 21 the days before and after. (It wasn't a January thaw, but my most memorable thaw is probably the -9 on 14-Feb-16 and 54 on 16-Feb-16. The -9 was the coldest temperature at KBOS in six decades and a -30 anomaly, two days later it was 54 and a +10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 All BOS temp records with 2F anomalies since Fall 2018. It’s a shame. A warm July in every other station turns into warmest ever at BOS. It’s a shame what has happened. And most people don’t know any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS continues to be out of control weenie-ish in the long range. It looks a lot like 2015 Totally unappreciated post. Let's do this. Buckle up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Oh my, whip it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Totally unappreciated post. Let's do this. Buckle up Nice call. I’m strapping it on after the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Feb 15 repeat but a little more inland would be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: LFG!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It's not an exact match but the western ridge axis and theme of +AO/+NAO with the low heights just extending straight down into New England are the same. Obviously we can't expect the historic snowfall to repeat but it should be a favorable pattern for some larger snow threats for our region. GEFS and GGEM ensembles are a bit west of the EPS with the ridge axis...esp GEFS (though they have been trending toward EPS) so we may see a bit of a compromise as we get closer but even that would still be a very good pattern. A lot of "positive" info, but not much talk of what can go wrong, which is what really matters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: A lot of "positive" info, but not much talk of what can go wrong, which is what really matters I dunno...maybe it doesn't verify because it's 11-15 days? I think that's pretty baked into these posts unless one is a total newbie here. I already mentioned it may verify a bit further west if there's a compromise between it and the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: A lot of "positive" info, but not much talk of what can go wrong, which is what really matters Psychologically fascinating response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno...maybe it doesn't verify because it's 11-15 days? I think that's pretty baked into these posts unless one is a total newbie here. I already mentioned it may verify a bit further west if there's a compromise between it and the GEFS. Just don't bother Will. We all know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno...maybe it doesn't verify because it's 11-15 days? I think that's pretty baked into these posts unless one is a total newbie here. I already mentioned it may verify a bit further west if there's a compromise between it and the GEFS. Verify west, you are talking that progged general trough axis? It seems like we need some blocking to get it done (better than transient) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Verify west, you are talking that progged general trough axis? It seems like we need some blocking to get it done (better than transient) Tell that to 2015. Transient in every big event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Verify west, you are talking that progged general trough axis? It seems like we need some blocking to get it done (better than transient) Yes. It could verify a little west if there's a compromise. The western ridge is what locks the trough in place...the PNA/EPO sort of link up and you can have a prolonged pattern where you keep getting reloads. There's a cutter danger if the trough axis is more over, say, Michigan versus the northeast....though you'd still have a lot of winter events even in that scenario (see January/February 2014). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Obviously we can't expect the historic snowfall Speak for yourself . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Tell that to 2015. Transient in every big event I don't disagree, it'll be interesting to see play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh my, whip it out. Maybe this time the EURO and NAM win the battle on the blizzard position. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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