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nj2va

January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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12z GFS Slower but also further south with the track of the low.  High in a great place.  Better than 6z.

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No one touched on the Hi Res Euro from last night. But it is an all frozen event out here in the 81 corridor. Snow to ice to dry slot. That is encouraging to see and really matches climo for these type of storms.

Edit: And the 12z GFS matches it almost exactly. Decent thump for everyone on this run. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

12z GFS Slower but also further south with the track of the low.  High in a great place.  Better than 6z.

850's still south of Fredericksburg at 18z Sat.  Can't see the other levels but its definitely frozen.

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We continue to see the run over run changes that we want. Snapshot at 105 hr on the changes from 12Z compared to the 06Z. Note we continue to see an increase of the pressures over top of our system. We are also seeing the confluence lag even farther behind in the NE. And we are also seeing a slightly deeper dig of the trough in the west.

 

gfschanges.gif.62100c8a113db825f3ce4a5074027bd0.gif

 

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GFS even keeps the surface below freezing in DC this run. All frozen event from DC north and west.

Would be a sleet bomb after a couple of inches I think as depicted.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS markedly better 

This is slowly morphing into a bread and butter west track with 2-6" of snow before ice/dryslot. It's looked like that general setup since d10. Nice to see us better off today than the past couple. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This is slowly morphing into a bread and butter west track with 2-6" of snow before ice/dryslot. It's looked like that general setup since d10. Nice to see us better off today than the past couple. 

I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it.  

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Weaker low into the GL @showmethesnow

Jump to the coast???

I'm not showme, but the primary holds on until well north of us before beginning to transfer south of Boston.  But again as everyone else said, much better run.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I think we can still improve, although I’d take this and run with it.  

Agreed, this as is, is pretty nice, but there is definitely room to improve further......hopefully.

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Just now, LP08 said:

I'm not showme, but the primary holds on until well north of us before beginning to transfer south of Boston.  But again as everyone else said, much better run.

I'm reaching, but hoping for enough improvements over the next few days.  The panels after 132 say probably not, but definitely better, as you and others said.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

SZ8CFl0.png

For comparison, this is EZF at the same time frame. Still not much of a warm nose at there at 18z, it's probably sleet in EZF

image.thumb.png.66697da8e55334a8c0ee529157d26d73.png

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

SZ8CFl0.png

Think you are right. Probably bombing flakes at this point. If you note the good lift through and just above the warm nose I would think those warmer temps would be getting mixed out upwards somewhat.

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this will continue to get colder with each run in my opinion.....how often have we seen this with CAD events.  Always colder than modeled. 

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7 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Weaker low into the GL @showmethesnow

Jump to the coast???

eta:  :weenie:

Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea.

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Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling.

 

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-9521600.png

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Can we start a thread for this?  It'd be helpful to separate this threat from the LR discussion.

Bob suggested earlier to wait a little bit longer. I have to agree. 

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Let's see where we are in a day or two. But as of right now with what is being depicted I wouldn't expect to see any transfer to off our general coast as the primary is still gaining too much latitude. See stronger heights in Canada on future runs with less latitude gain and/or a deeper dropping trough then we can probably start considering the idea.

We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now.

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not even sure this is an ice sounding. That's not much of a warm nose at all honestly...

SZ8CFl0.png

That is a snow sounding with any decent rates.  Although the best lift is below the DGZ and in the warm layer...so it likely would be an icy rimed messy low ratio 5-1 type snow....but still.  

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Oh boy...taking the family to Disney for the first time this Sunday (out of BWI).  I will never root against snow, but hoping for an earlier onset Saturday morning and clearing out by the evening.

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Very interesting snowfall distribution, ( NW to SE ) might be looking at an event that is a little out of the norm. The Euro will be telling.

 

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-9521600.png

That is quite a harsh cut off for frozen.  0.5” in Fairfax/Loudoun and over 10” just an hour to the NW or NE? 

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Fringed - Jumped over - missed in Purcellville/Loudoun @Ji - #WhatTheHeck 

GFS has a dryslot, probably due to down-sloping, across VA but I would have to look at the exact wind flow to see.  But that kind of dryslot, while possible, is dependent on the exact wind trajectory to be correct.   The lighter precip rates also negatively impact the thermal profile as less mixing out of the warm layer.  The result is ugly there...but that is not the kind of meso scale feature the GFS is going to get right at this range so don't worry, the larger more important factors all broke our way this run.  

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It would be nice to put down a snowpack at the start of the pattern change because whatever happens it is likely to stay cold a while after with a 1040 high dropping into the midwest behind the system and the epo ridge going ape in the longer range.  We could have a rare situation with extended snowcover "IF" this threat works out.  Especially if we can get some appreciable ice on top of a few inches of snow.  

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