January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

[frd]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But the majority that come up are perfect track rain storms according to the members. Odd. I guess a 36 degree rainstorm would still show up as a “below normal day” becauss we suck that much.  Just not the profile of a rainstorm. 

Seriously this is a rain look now...I have a hard time buying that  

Cold and snowy forecasts draw you in and then it goes warmer, less snow, then the winter cancel weenies come out and right on cue you see the colder forecast with snow potential,  then the cold arrives, in shorter duration than what was expected , snow threats don't live up to expectations, rinse and repeat,  Almost seems to happen on a pre-planned schedule. I know our climo is not snow friendly but even HM has made several posts over the past 3 months regarding a trace phenomena.  

That snowy post I did this morning about the MJO,  I did without much concern,  but since then things have degraded.  Whether he is correct or not remains to be seen.  

I  am waiting on the NAM  change at some point. I am still not enthused over the snow prospects down the road. However, Don S came up with some interesting stats regarding the AO.  And holly cow was the AO really + 4.36........ but Judah ?

Here is Don's recent post:

<<

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.368.

　

The AO will average above +3.000 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000.

>>>

　

[frd]

 

@psuhoffman there is your dry trending to normal precip  between the 22 nd  and the 28th. Whether the normal precip is wet or white , well who knows. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

@frd still no idea what he meant wrt the IO standing wave in 2/3. That’s a cold look in February. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

?

#FalseHope?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

 

This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

#FalseHope?

Dont look  at the eps 

[Chris78]

Maybe its the weekend after the weekend storm.

[Weather Will]

0z EPS WB Probability of 3 inches or more....pretty bad and the crumbs are Day 11-15.

[CAPE]

50 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Maybe its the weekend after the weekend storm.

 

More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.

[Weather Will]

GEFS WB 6Z Probabilities of snowfall 3 inches or more.  Small percentages for this weekend and more optimistic next weekend and beyond compared to  EPS.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember when the LR ens and weeklies had locked in on a much better pattern thru their respective ranges? 

The longwave pattern still looks as advertised. Problems are with details that cannot be seen in long range. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Mersky said:

Yes we do but apparently you forgot it was all happening after January 20th. Today is January 15th, at least on my calendar. Perhaps a therapy dog is in your future??? 

You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

You're not getting it. Where once we had solid agreement going forward now we need to cherry pick to find the best looks. I never said we wouldn't or couldn't score. Just referring to how the unanimous looks are backing off now and not so unanimous anymore. 

We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the  EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.

I am legitimately perplexed by the lack of hits day 10-15 on the eps and gefs given the h5 look. Even when you examine the mslp and precip...it’s a coastal track. Not cutters. And it’s not warm. Not really cold but below normal the whole period.  It looks great.  Then you look at the individual member output and it’s a bunch of 36 degree rainstorms from a perfect track miller A storm!  

Now I see the “wart”. The ridging in Canada gets centered too Far East which cuts off the cross polar flow so we end up with stale cold across the conus after the initial dump next week. But that setup (ridge bear or just west of Hudson Bay) has been a staple of mid winter snows here. In my study it was the second most frequent feature to an NAO block to signal snow.  Like an NAO pattern it’s not an arctic cold look but it’s January. Prime climo. Stale cold air should be good enough. It was in Feb 2010. That was the same general airmass, leftover cold from the dump late January that was cut off under blocking across Canada. It was a garbage airmass by Feb 5. Would have been 45-50 degrees if it was sunny with no snowcover. But it worked with storms tracking under us. 

I know I’m ranting but my god that pattern should work. Maybe it will and guidance is off by a few degrees at range. I hate to bring you know what up with you know who around but seeing a pattern that has been bread and butter for us in the past look “just a couple degrees too warm” in prime climo (literally this is the coldest/snowiest part of the year) really is frustrating.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

We can all agree after the 20th the pattern is much better than what we have had this winter. It's going to be cold during our peak climo for snow.  Nothing has backed off despite what BAMWX tried to sell yesterday. 

Split out West should continue with little to no Atl blocking. Not a big dog (that's my therapy dog btw) look but I could see us score overrunning chances coming from energy undercutting the SW moving across and thru the bottom of the PV flow. But trying to nail the NS down specifically and spot something in the LR probably.wont work for us. Going to be a waiting game most likely and picking up on something under 5 days.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am legitimately perplexed by the lack of hits day 10-15 on the eps and gefs given the h5 look. Even when you examine the mslp and precip...it’s a coastal track. Not cutters. And it’s not warm. Not really cold but below normal the whole period.  It looks great.  Then you look at the individual member output and it’s a bunch of 36 degree rainstorms from a perfect track miller A storm!  

Now I see the “wart”. The ridging in Canada gets centered too Far East which cuts off the cross polar flow so we end up with stale cold across the conus after the initial dump next week. But that setup (ridge bear or just west of Hudson Bay) has been a staple of mid winter snows here. In my study it was the second most frequent feature to an NAO block to signal snow.  Like an NAO pattern it’s not an arctic cold look but it’s January. Prime climo. Stale cold air should be good enough. It was in Feb 2010. That was the same general airmass, leftover cold from the dump late January that was cut off under blocking across Canada. It was a garbage airmass by Feb 5. Would have been 45-50 degrees if it was sunny with no snowcover. But it worked with storms tracking under us. 

I know I’m ranting but my god that pattern should work. Maybe it will and guidance is off by a few degrees at range. I hate to bring you know what up with you know who around but seeing a pattern that has been bread and butter for us in the past look “just a couple degrees too warm” in prime climo (literally this is the coldest/snowiest part of the year) really is frustrating.  

Key features are displaced just enough that the systems are either just off the coast, squashed to the S, or like this weekend system during the brief relaxes in the cold flow. That's my take from analyzing the LR. We might benefit from returning to focusing under 240 in this pattern.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Key features are displaced just enough that the systems are either just off the coast, squashed to the S, or like this weekend system during the brief relaxes in the cold flow. That's my take from analyzing the LR. We might benefit from returning to focusing under 240 in this pattern.

I thought that too (and there is some of that) but even some of the members with 990 lows off the coast that bomb us with precip are just rain. 

You see anything under 240 worth focusing on?

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am legitimately perplexed by the lack of hits day 10-15 on the eps and gefs given the h5 look. Even when you examine the mslp and precip...it’s a coastal track. Not cutters. And it’s not warm. Not really cold but below normal the whole period.  It looks great.  Then you look at the individual member output and it’s a bunch of 36 degree rainstorms from a perfect track miller A storm!  

Now I see the “wart”. The ridging in Canada gets centered too Far East which cuts off the cross polar flow so we end up with stale cold across the conus after the initial dump next week. But that setup (ridge bear or just west of Hudson Bay) has been a staple of mid winter snows here. In my study it was the second most frequent feature to an NAO block to signal snow.  Like an NAO pattern it’s not an arctic cold look but it’s January. Prime climo. Stale cold air should be good enough. It was in Feb 2010. That was the same general airmass, leftover cold from the dump late January that was cut off under blocking across Canada. It was a garbage airmass by Feb 5. Would have been 45-50 degrees if it was sunny with no snowcover. But it worked with storms tracking under us. 

I know I’m ranting but my god that pattern should work. Maybe it will and guidance is off by a few degrees at range. I hate to bring you know what up with you know who around but seeing a pattern that has been bread and butter for us in the past look “just a couple degrees too warm” in prime climo (literally this is the coldest/snowiest part of the year) really is frustrating.  

I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought that too (and there is some of that) but even some of the members with 990 lows off the coast that bomb us with precip are just rain. 

You see anything under 240 worth focusing on?

Clipper type system around day 6/7 then of course the stj wave day 10ish. Surface reflection of day 6/7 is meh tho we know clippers are lighter precip and also we sometimes dont see better reflection until under 4 days. 

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Clipper type system around day 6/7 then of course the stj wave day 10ish. Surface reflection of day 6/7 is meh tho we know clippers are lighter precip and also we sometimes dont see better reflection until under 4 days. 

 

Good luck analyzing a clipper at 150 hours. The day 10 stj thing is what I’m talking about.  You’re right about discreet things not showing until inside 4/5 days...but the problem is it’s hard to spend a lot of time analyzing something that hasn’t shown itself yet.  Could an unseen vort pop up in the cold window next week?  Sure. It’s a pretty suppressive flow though. But maybe that relaxes some. Problem is that’s all pure speculation with no meat to analyze.  

[frd]

I will ride the -AO in the future. I just hope we can improve the NAM state towards the end of the month and early Feb. Would be so awesome to enter a period of blocking at the HL that sticks for while. Not expecting a SSWE but a weakening is certainly possible. 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

There has been a few of these the last several months.  This one looks very impressive.

 

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

@psuhoffman

You asked (maybe sarcastically?) if I thought there was anything worth discussing under 240. I mentioned the one stronger NS vort some models are picking up on around 132-144 hours. Going to be a challenge until under 4 days and may end up being nothing, but since you posed the question and there really isnt much else going on.

Maybe we can get this under us in some way, shape, or form tbd.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.

I will say this...if we do get a miller a storm with a perfect track (barring bad luck with a NS vort like the HH gfs run) I don’t buy the rain idea. I said the same thing when the Jan 2016 storm first showed up around day 12 and was warm on guidance. Euro was showing a perfect track gulf low rain storm when it first came into day 10 range. And I said BS. If it goes down like that in January stale cold will be good enough. Feb 5 2010 also was warm at really long range. Same reason. Same result. History/climo says stale cold stuck under a Canadian ridge is good enough with a good storm track in January and February. Climo for an advertised pattern beats nwp output range most times. We need the nwp to help with pattern recognition but I’ll take what history says should happen with the details. 

[psuhoffman]

Before I start a weenie stampede  I should clarify that this setup does not have the upside those other storms I referenced did. I was purely using the airmass similarities. Without Atlantic blocking this storm would be more progressive. If it rides the coast it would likely blast up the coast not stall and dump on the mid Atlantic. But those can still be very good snowstorms. Just usually not 2 foot HECS ones. And it would have a higher chance of cutting. And if it did stale cold won’t work. I was simply saying if we get a 990 low up the coast with a perfect track I do not buy the rain scenario. 

[Ji]

I will say this...if we do get a miller a storm with a perfect track (barring bad luck with a NS vort like the HH gfs run) I don’t buy the rain idea. I said the same thing when the Jan 2016 storm first showed up around day 12 and was warm on guidance. Euro was showing a perfect track gulf low rain storm when it first came into day 10 range. And I said BS. If it goes down like that in January stale cold will be good enough. Feb 5 2010 also was warm at really long range. Same reason. Same result. History/climo says stale cold stuck under a Canadian ridge is good enough with a good storm track in January and February. Climo for an advertised pattern beats nwp output range most times. We need the nwp to help with pattern recognition but I’ll take what history says should happen with the details. 

I remember pd2003 was also modeled as a rain storm initially and that is what howard(weather53) and keith allen had predicted. Maybe that's why howie hates models so much

 

[Ji]

Mjo somehow just dies right before the promised land. The cards are lining up for one of those winters that just wont snow

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the  EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10. 

Yeah, peeps need to forget the unicorn run that shows mega hits and realize that it's a shift in the regime that we can only chase in LR guidance. 

The shift is real, and that's all we can ask for at this juncture.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Mjo somehow just dies right before the promised land. The cards are lining up for one of those winters that just wont snow

Each day it makes it closer to 8 before it starts to try and loop. Get it all the way in 8 and then loop back through 7 probably would be ok.