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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out.  The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out.  The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

If the day 8-10 deal doesn't work out, looks like day 12 or day 15 has a chance undercutting that ridge out west :weenie:

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Just now, LP08 said:

If the day 8-10 deal doesn't work out, looks like day 12 or day 15 has a chance undercutting that ridge out west :weenie:

Yea, now we have the big 3 globals looking the same at d10 and all ens support the idea of how/when things turn for the better. The GFS/CMC/Euro have a storm approaching from the SW d8. The Atl can make this happen with well placed confluence. Even with a west track we can do our CAD thing. 

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Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out.  The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 

Bob, would you say when you look at  Canada and the HL the progression resembles the GEFS for this time period. To me it looks close in certain areas.  

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I would speculate these storms off the NE coast continue to possibly add wave breaks to the NW Atlantic reinforcing the good vibes there while various S/W traverse under the block way out in fantasy land.  Maybe the EPS will show this.   

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Just now, frd said:

Bob, would you say when you look at  Canada and the HL the progression resembles the GEFS for this time period. To me it looks close in certain areas.  

I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. 

The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

I would speculate these storms off the NE coast continue to possibly add wave breaks to the NW Atlantic reinforcing the good vibes there while various S/W traverse under the block way out in fantasy land.  Maybe the EPS will show this.   

Ideally that is how it works...creating a feedback loop in our favor.  

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think all guidance looks the same now in general (including the CMC/GEPS). Ridge in the EPac splits flow and the blocking ridge in Canada forces the northern stream underneath as the Atlantic carves out a 50/50. All models are showing a similar progression with just minor differences in speed/placement of features. 

The most important thing to root for is the altantic carving out confluence as soon as possible. We'll be in the sweet climo window where normal temps are good enough by the time things improve. 

Agreed...and a very interesting look.  Bob (and anyone else), looking at the 216h and 240h plots above...I can see how that ridging in the intermountain west and up in to Canada results in what could be a more favorable split-flow potential.  However, looking outside that, would we also perhaps ideally want that E-W oriented ridge that's "pointing" toward the Gulf of AK to eventually be a bit farther east and orient more N-S in time?  Curious what that might do, hypothetically.  Could it be a hint of re-generating a more favorable -EPO?

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Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd.  One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. 

ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. 

Another kudo to HM for stating this upcoming period would bring model uncertainty along with significant run over run changes.  

Having the EPS, CFS, GEFS, analogs etc all pointing in the same direction for once is a huge morale booster.  

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43 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has that strong ridge pushing into the Pac northwest just like GEFS by D10. That ridge is what shuffles things in our favor on the GEFS. 

What a difference a day makes. 

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

D9-10 deal on the euro was pretty close to working out.  The atlantic is asserting itself nicely and it's within the realm for it to become a legit threat (of some sort). 0z EPS had a cluster of maybe 12 solutions that had at least a trace of snow. Will be interesting to see if 12z EPS ups the ante. It's probably waaay too fast to expect things to get right before Jan but it is something (the only thing) worth watching over the next 10 days. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

 

I mentioned that day 9-10 system this morning. It was an interesting look on the gfs ens members at 6z. Haven’t looked at anything since but you’re post caught my attention.

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very nice shift on the EPS towards a colder regime beginning just after NYE with a much more defined eastern conus trough in place by Jan 2nd.  One of the larger run over run jumps (in the good direction) I've seen recently. 

ETA: h5 pattern looks good but oddly there isn't much going on in the snowfall dept. 

Looking at the individual members, there is agreement on a big cutter day 9-11 and then most of the members that cause the "trough" look in the east after that are just cold and dry with a big high parked over the east.  There are some wet members...but they differ on things and take another cutter over after that.  There really is no support among either camp for a frozen event despite the h5 look.  Its split between cold/dry and warm/wet.  

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No one mentioned it, probably because its worthless...but the euro weeklies did have a nice NAO signature straight through the whole run.  Pacific is mediocre at best the whole time though.  

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

HH GFS interesting look at 180. Get that NS ull to plow ESE and flatten the top of that ridge down into the Mid Atl and not phase with the stj ull and have the stj wave follow behind and yeah. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_31.png

Something to look at

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Those two shortwaves move in perfect tandem across the continent. Get the ns ahead of the southern and that storm might take on a completely different look.

ie timing is the key. Pretty much what Ralph was saying lol

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We can dream while the blinds are closed. I'm creepily peeking thru the slits stalking the pattern change. :devilsmiley:

I do like seeing guidance lock in to a return to more favorable conditions before the end of the year. Important step #1 is to not have the 850 0c line north of the great lakes. That should be fixed before 2020. But like with all large pattern flips... they generally don't hit the ground running so patience required (as always....)

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Those two shortwaves move in perfect tandem across the continent. Get the ns ahead of the southern and that storm might take on a completely different look.

ie timing is the key. Pretty much what Ralph was saying lol

There's a parade of closed ULLs tracking through the southwest on all ops right now. Get the atlantic right and keep the parade going and one of them is going to hit us flush. One of the most persistent LW features since mid Nov has been 50/50s.

I haven't seen the atlantic look this good since Jan 2011. There's nothing more fun than a classic coastal that hits everyone relatively equally. I liked seeing the Jan 87 analogs showing up on cpc.  The only thing more fun than a flush hit coastal is a second one shortly after...

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Here's the mslp anomaly for the last 30 days or so. Confirms my thoughts about a persistent low pressure near the maritimes. I'm good with that continuing through the end of March

NmJlqwj.png

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This looks freekin good. I'm good with every member height plot on this panel and it's 15 days out in time. Not a bad one in the bunch. The ones that are warm have winter on the heels. 

f360.gif

 

Can't predict snow this far out in time but it def looks like we're getting some cold shots in early Jan. 

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