NYCweatherNOW

December 2019

Recommended Posts

NYC has done better this decade with snow in November than during the first week of December.This is a big reversal from last decade.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7
Missing Count
2019-12-07 1.6 4
2018-12-07 0.0 0
2017-12-07 0.0 0
2016-12-07 0.0 0
2015-12-07 0.0 0
2014-12-07 0.0 0
2013-12-07 T 0
2012-12-07 0.0 0
2011-12-07 0.0 0
2010-12-07 T 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Total Snowfall
Missing Count
2019 0.0 1
2018 6.4 0
2017 T 0
2016 T 0
2015 0.0 0
2014 0.2 0
2013 T 0
2012 4.7 0
2011 0.0 0
2010 T 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 7
Missing Count
2009-12-07 T 0
2008-12-07 T 0
2007-12-07 1.7 0
2006-12-07 0.0 0
2005-12-07 3.5 0
2004-12-07 0.0 0
2003-12-07 14.0 0
2002-12-07 6.0 0
2001-12-07 0.0 0
2000-12-07 0.0 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Total Snowfall 
Missing Count
2009 0.0 0
2008 T 0
2007 T 0
2006 0.0 0
2005 T 0
2004 T 0
2003 0.0 0
2002 T 0
2001 0.0 0
2000 0.0 0

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the MJO stalling in 2 and going into the COD. Not a warm pattern at all.

649E3AC0-5004-4055-8BF4-5F4D527CA01E.jpeg.b1f36fd1f8573ee5740a72e9f79baeca.jpeg

Even if it DID go into the bad phases, we have scored many times in horrible patterns like the Feb 18 storm.

This year we have seen a pre March negative NAO, an MJO that slows in the good phases and an Arctic outbreak in Nov (which seems annual).

All good things. 2.5 inches from last storm. Feel somewhat good about this winter being average to slightly above average snowfall.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Boston ended up with 5.9 inches for the three days, still within your range.

Albany ended up with 22.6 inches which is their 8th largest storm of all time.

I saw that the figure was reduced from the 7.1” (preliminary data summary) to 5.9”. The storm was really impressive around the Albany area.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the Mid Atlantic  forum 

 

Meteorologist Wxusaf

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

From the Mid Atlatic  forum 

 

Meteorologist Wxusaf

Holy cow is the GEFS ever ripe D8-10. Confluence in New England from the TPV in Labrador, coupled PNA/EPO ridging out west and a gorgeous deep s/w moving through the southern plains. Precip panels look lovely. 

 

88 or anyone else = Still learning here so bear with my ignorance but D8 and D10 is that DAY 8 thru Day 10 ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 or anyone else = Still learning here so bear with my ignorance but D8 and D10 is that DAY 8 thru Day 10 ?

Yes

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under cloudy skies readings remained in the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the Mid-Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -3.95 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.722.

Stratospheric temperatures remain below normal at both 10 mb and 30 mb in the Arctic region. No significant warming event is likely through at least December 13.

Daily MJO data has continued to be unavailable. Model initializations can provide a general idea of the MJO's progression and amplitude.

After a generally cold first week of December, warmer conditions will likely return. There is a chance that the second week of December could see one or more days with much above normal readings topping out in the 50s and perhaps even near 60° in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. However, the third week of the month could turn colder. There has been growing consensus toward a return of colder air on the guidance.

It remains uncertain whether the cold will be transient or sustained for a period of time. Should the AO stay mainly positive or strongly positive, such cold shots would have an increased likelihood of proving relatively short-lived.

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It's flurrying but you have to look towards a light just right and be patient :mellow:

yes indeed...looks like snow in the light, feels like rain on my forehead. LGA reporting rain and snow, 40

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 1deg. AN.

37* here at 6am.      41* by 11am.     42* by 1pm (high)

Get ready for about 3 '50 degree days' over the next 10 days, before any sensible winter action returns, mid-month.     GFS has 15" in Atlanta Ga., mid-month---but less here on current setup.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Classic December -EPO +NAO pattern. This sets up a duel between the the -EPO ridge and the SE ridge. So we get alternating warm ups and cool downs. Amplified systems cut to the Great Lakes in this pattern. Root for a perfectly timed SWFE if you want to get a nice front end thump.

5EBE5EE9-F454-4019-B24A-DA77BB208EF5.thumb.png.501a333cd73a02fe4a1d05e07c6172a3.png
4479822A-9A59-4D27-9013-7BBA63DD8382.thumb.png.b1b81fae088d9d890355a9945344e4c7.png

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic December -EPO +NAO pattern. This sets up a duel between the the -EPO ridge and the SE ridge. So we get alternating warm ups and cool downs. Amplified systems cut to the Great Lakes in this pattern. Root for a perfectly timed SWFE if you want to get a nice front end thump.

5EBE5EE9-F454-4019-B24A-DA77BB208EF5.thumb.png.501a333cd73a02fe4a1d05e07c6172a3.png
4479822A-9A59-4D27-9013-7BBA63DD8382.thumb.png.b1b81fae088d9d890355a9945344e4c7.png

07526FFE-565A-415C-9EE0-6F5AEC4B316C.thumb.png.0161ca28f14f2ddad6b9e36905db1e45.png

Eps has been too warm this season and trended towards the gefs the last time we had a cold shot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Been above freezing for 24 hours straight.

Temps seem to be coming in warmer than expected this week as well.

After we receive the snow I thought we would have it around through Saturday

Disappointing end to our first snowstorm; but it is the norm for the 2010s.

We have had plenty of snow, but we just don’t seem to keep the cold air in place and keep snow cover in place for extended periods of time unless it is a massive storm

 

34F at 7am

  • Confused 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has been too warm this season and trended towards the gefs the last time we had a cold shot.

None of the models have shown much skill day 11-15 last few weeks. But this -EPO +NAO pattern has been a familiar one in December since 2013. One of the main characteristics has been big temperature swings. Where we alternate between +10’s departure days or higher and -10’s or lower. 
 

273A1AA2-E410-4045-A86E-D133FB86D64E.png.de9f7a39673d5840110b221c8996411b.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Been above freezing for 24 hours straight.

Temps seem to be coming in warmer than expected this week as well.

After we receive the snow I thought we would have it around through Saturday

Disappointing end to our first snowstorm; but it is the norm for the 2010s.

We have had plenty of snow, but we just don’t seem to keep the cold air in place and keep snow cover in place for extended periods of time unless it is a massive storm

 

34F at 7am

Not the case in the HV, it hasn't even fallen off the trees yet. Even with the cutter Monday and Tuesday, what we have on the ground now and the concentrated qpf in the foot that fell  should be able to stand up to it.

We shall see.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Same out this way. Trees, including white pines, still have snow. Not to mention the 4" compacted on the ground. 

I understand the city and points east have limited snow retention ability, but that was a rather broad statement to be made. 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The timing of that Arctic high will mean everything for the correct SWFE front end thump potential in mid-December. Need the high to hold on longer like the GFS has. The Euro scooting the high east faster wouldn’t work out.

08DFDF4B-B977-4081-9C47-D9F19657FB83.thumb.png.405553f8384c3c260881dcbb6ec22626.png

4FC952F2-8405-4922-B23F-970B612FE7A6.thumb.png.8159fb0ddcffe83beacebef8ecba41f7.png

 

 

Both solutions are too amped to be SWFE. I know what you’re saying about a SWFE, but to me the latest guidance is saying this is either a cutter or a Miller A. I lean towards the latter but with very little confidence. Also climo still not favorable for a sig snowfall from a SWFE outside of NNE...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Been above freezing for 24 hours straight.

Temps seem to be coming in warmer than expected this week as well.

After we receive the snow I thought we would have it around through Saturday

Disappointing end to our first snowstorm; but it is the norm for the 2010s.

We have had plenty of snow, but we just don’t seem to keep the cold air in place and keep snow cover in place for extended periods of time unless it is a massive storm

 

34F at 7am

 

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not the case in the HV, it hasn't even fallen off the trees yet. Even with the cutter Monday and Tuesday, what we have on the ground now and the concentrated qpf in the foot that fell  should be able to stand up to it.

We shall see.

While it has been warmish the last few afternoons and is headed there again quickly today it's still decidedly winter here. This morning was the second in a row with more fresh snow, not much either day but a nice little whitener. I also still have lots of ice on branches and bushes but I expect that to mostly go away today if the sun stays out. I surely won't retain anything of the 4" of frozen stuff with any kind of warmup but we're deep into stick season and this storm was enough to send everything into full on winter mode.

Re: this mornings snow - While yesterday was really just a dusting today it would have been measurable had I gone out and done so. .3" would be a fair eyeball call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not the case in the HV, it hasn't even fallen off the trees yet. Even with the cutter Monday and Tuesday, what we have on the ground now and the concentrated qpf in the foot that fell  should be able to stand up to it.

We shall see.

To your point, 1.85" of LE for me from the storm, 9" at the stake this morning.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Not the case in the HV, it hasn't even fallen off the trees yet. Even with the cutter Monday and Tuesday, what we have on the ground now and the concentrated qpf in the foot that fell  should be able to stand up to it.

We shall see.

the weather coming monday-tuesday will melt snow in a lot of the northeast. dewpoints are forecast well into the 50s with this airmass, likely for over 24 hours. classic snow eater.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

It is a long way off, but I would love to see a pattern more conducive for snow around Christmas time.  

Annual tradition for all of us. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

the weather coming monday-tuesday will melt snow in a lot of the northeast. dewpoints are forecast well into the 50s with this airmass, likely for over 24 hours. classic snow eater.

Along with a lot of denial and meltdowns in the SNE sub forum.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Usually it turns out mild and rainy at the solstice. 

C'est la via. I've always wanted a true White Christmas once, but you can't control the weather. 

Cant Control The Weather Damn Jackie GIF - CantControlTheWeather DamnJackie Well GIFs

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.