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December 2019

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16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well you shoulda been here for 2/6/10, when you only had to go 10 miles down the NJ turnpike to see a foot, and more the further south you went....Boxing Day was also a mostly coastal event; 10 miles or so from the coast there was a huge cutoff. 

Boxing Day actually delivered quite nicely up here in Poughkeepsie and surrounding.  We had 16 inches.  Not as much as the 2-3 foot amounts near the coast, but I was still very happy. 

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50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

4 wintry events this month, 12/1, 12/2, 12/10 and today.    Didn't yield giant totals, but not bad for early season wintry events

It depends on where you're located. In northeast Queens, I've gotten slightly more than bupkis. Around 2 inches total with some white rain mixed in. Heavy salt though so good for the salt lovers 

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55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

back to normal climo at least for the time being.  Hartford CT has approx 30 inches of snow on the season while Bridgeport has 8

Bridgeport has more than me at 5 :()

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53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

typo, I meant to type 20, not 30.   Still, more than double what we have at the coast

Definitely. Always latitude. We have been lucky in the nyc metro this past decade. My parents still live near Hartford so I was like my dad didn’t tell me about any 30 inches! Haha I still love to ski at Ski Sundown up there. My grandparents lives on the CT shore growing up and most Christmases we would have snow in central CT and they never had anything at the shore. We’ll see what this winter brings 

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3 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Sign me up. That was an epic 15 minutes. 

Best part was how it moved under the radar while crossing central Pennsylvania and many posters thought it had dissipated.   That really was crazy.

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41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s one of the biggest misses just to our south of all-time. Probably the most extreme bookend winter for snowfall. Very odd to get a 50” season in NYC with so little between 12-21 and 02-09. Only a few inches  more snowfall than over the same period last year.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Feb 9
Missing Count
2019-02-09 1.1 0
2018-02-09 12.4 0
2017-02-09 17.3 0
2016-02-09 30.5 0
2015-02-09 22.2 0
2014-02-09 32.9 0
2013-02-09 14.1 0
2012-02-09 4.3 0
2011-02-09 57.6 0
2010-02-09 4.6 0

All the storms missed my area to some extent that year, but even the "misses" left me with 8-12...with the exception of that one.

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59 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well you shoulda been here for 2/6/10, when you only had to go 10 miles down the NJ turnpike to see a foot, and more the further south you went....Boxing Day was also a mostly coastal event; 10 miles or so from the coast there was a huge cutoff. 

Agreed - I saw only 3” out here from Boxing Day.  

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Warm and wet storm track followed by cold and dry. But the last true Arctic air mass was over a month ago. Plenty of Pacific modification to the air mass over the CONUS.

We'll get a short taste tomorrow night as a small arctic lobe swings through.

Models actually trending colder as we get closer. Widespread low to mid teens look likely with very gusty winds.

Probably sub-zero wind chills. 

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That season was the Baltimore version of 95-96 in NYC.

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 2010-04-30 77.0 0
2 1996-04-30 62.5 1
3 2003-04-30 58.1 0
4 1964-04-30 51.8 0
5 1899-04-30 51.1 0

NYC did manage a Feb record though....

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50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That season was the Baltimore version of 95-96 in NYC.

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 2010-04-30 77.0 0
2 1996-04-30 62.5 1
3 2003-04-30 58.1 0
4 1964-04-30 51.8 0
5 1899-04-30 51.1 0

Went to business school in DC during this time and lived in Arlington. At one point in February there was about 3-4 ft of snow on the ground for several days after back to back massive storms. Felt like I didn’t have school for a month. Have never seen that much snow on the ground in a metro area for that long a period. 

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2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

4 wintry events this month, 12/1, 12/2, 12/10 and today.    Didn't yield giant totals, but not bad for early season wintry events

Yeah I’m with you on this

Cold month and lots of wintry precipitation

Nice taste of winter...which is more than we can say for 2010s winters in general

People talk about the 2016 el nino blizzard...that was an awful, warm winter with one large snow storm...that melted almost immediately

What was our Dec that year ? + 12? And when was the first freeze? 1/2?

Now we are bitching about 40s on xmas? 

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3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Jan 2016 was the ultimate interior screw job.  I literally felt sick to my stomach seeing a dusting while 90 miles south had an ultimate 2 feet blizzard.  This will be very hard to make up for. 

Kind of like how March 2001 feels for so many around NYC and New Jersey, although that feeling was worse for them since the bullseye was initially there.  We interior folks were never in the game to begin with in Jan 16. 

With perhaps one or two exceptions, all the large storms have targeted areas further south and east of the interior since January 2015.

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14 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

With perhaps one or two exceptions, all the large storms have targeted areas further south and east of the interior since January 2015.

Yeah but they get more regular 8-10 events than we typically see. You really need to be prepared for snow in those regions.

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25 minutes ago, Minenfeld! said:

With perhaps one or two exceptions, all the large storms have targeted areas further south and east of the interior since January 2015.

Closer to the storm track, makes sense.  But it seemed to be at a higher frequency than usual. 

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A widespread 0.10"-0.25" freezing rain event affected areas just to the north and west of New York City earlier today. Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, New York State, and Connecticut picked up 0.30" or more freezing rain.

Some freezing rain totals included: Allentown: 0.29"; Bridgeport: 0.39"; Center Valley, PA: 0.50"; Highland Lakes, NJ: 0.30"; Islip: 0.19"; Monroe, NY: 0.44"; Stockholm (1 WNW), NJ: 0.40"; and, Westhampton: 0.19".

In the wake of the departing ice storm, a short but sharp shot of cold will push into the region tomorrow, possibly accompanied by snow showers and even a snow squall. Tomorrow night, parts of the region could experience the lowest temperatures so far this season. New York City will likely see the temperature fall into the middle or upper teens Thursday morning with a high temperature only in the middle 20s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -13.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.370.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 26, but some warming above 2 mb could develop near the end of the forecast period. Moderate Wave 2 activity could occur after December 20, likely leading to some upper stratosphere warming. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold into the middle of the fourth week of December on the EPS.

On December 16, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.849 (RMM). The December 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.127.

For the December 20-27 period overall, the temperature in such cities as Washington, Philadelphia, and New York could average somewhat above normal despite the cold start to the period. There is a chance that colder air could return near the end of December. The potential for a full-fledged Arctic outbreak could be available during the first week in January if some of the guidance has correctly forecast the pattern evolution heading into January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that December will wind up colder than normal in New York City.

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5 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Jan 2016 was the ultimate interior screw job.  I literally felt sick to my stomach seeing a dusting while 90 miles south had an ultimate 2 feet blizzard.  This will be very hard to make up for. 

Kind of like how March 2001 feels for so many around NYC and New Jersey, although that feeling was worse for them since the bullseye was initially there.  We interior folks were never in the game to begin with in Jan 16. 

I still carry the scars from that storm.

The only time in my life I ever received a foot of snow and was pissed off for days. 30 miles north of me received 0 as you stated and 40-50 mile south in parts of NNJ and NYC 30 inches.

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13 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I still carry the scars from that storm.

The only time in my life I ever received a foot of snow and was pissed off for days. 30 miles north of me received 0 as you stated and 40-50 mile south in parts of NNJ and NYC 30 inches.

Funnily enough, that's probably the whiff that gives me the least indigestion out of all of them in the new millennium. I think it's because I got nothing – not a trace, not a single flake – so the blizzard to the south may as well have been in Alaska. There was no tease, just a snowstorm that hit somewhere else (which happens every day of the year). It hurts much worse when there's some snow to provide a taste of what is transpiring just miles away. 5" in Feb 2006, 4" Feb '10, 10" Feb '13... that sort of thing.

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2 hours ago, Minenfeld! said:

With perhaps one or two exceptions, all the large storms have targeted areas further south and east of the interior since January 2015.

Not really true. The January 23, 2016 was the big miss for the interior, since then the 1-2 foot storms have been favoring the inland locations.

February 9, 2017 14.1 inches Monroe in Orange County NY,  NYC 9.4, call that one a draw for climo differences.

March 14, 2017 20.8 inches in Orange County Monroe,  NYC 7.6

March 7, 2018  24.2 inches Orange county, Central Park 3.2 inches

December 1-3 2019  12.0 inches vs. 1.6 in the Park.

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23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Funnily enough, that's probably the whiff that gives me the least indigestion out of all of them in the new millennium. I think it's because I got nothing – not a trace, not a single flake – so the blizzard to the south may as well have been in Alaska. There was no tease, just a snowstorm that hit somewhere else (which happens every day of the year). It hurts much worse when there's some snow to provide a taste of what is transpiring just miles away. 5" in Feb 2006, 4" Feb '10, 10" Feb '13... that sort of thing.

Seems like the tables have turned, at least since 2017 in Southern CT. Those storms you mentioned we did extremely well (30” 2006 / 42” 2013) but we are starting to go back to coastal winters I remember growing up with lots of mixed/cold rain events in the 90s but we still had some good storms just much less frequent than we have become accustomed to over the last 10-20 years. Everything in life is cyclical including weather. I believe the 20s will be more docile regarding all snow events at the coast. We are due but are we really? Tons of moisture this year and into the early parts of this winter but unfortunately it hasn’t clashed with cold enough air. Frustrating. Another “normal” inland jack and coastal screw season in the works!

BTW 

.56 of ice on everything

North side of town will have damage from weight of ice.

Fairfield, CT

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7 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Jan 2016 was the ultimate interior screw job.  I literally felt sick to my stomach seeing a dusting while 90 miles south had an ultimate 2 feet blizzard.  This will be very hard to make up for. 

Kind of like how March 2001 feels for so many around NYC and New Jersey, although that feeling was worse for them since the bullseye was initially there.  We interior folks were never in the game to begin with in Jan 16. 

Unfortunately I remember that like it was yesterday. Dusting is being generous, I had 3 flakes. I had 6 inches all winter. Brutal.  

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Next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or about 0.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -1.1[38.5].       Should be about  -0.9[37.4] by the 26th.

33* here at 6am.    32* at 7am.      36* by 10am.      38* by Noon.

Our main models have little of interest for the remainder of the year it seems.      Some snow showers is the most we can hope for in conjunction with one Arctic like day.

Well, if one can wait till Jan. 08, the CFS has a Miller A going.

For reference:     A 400m  rise,  but only a 150m drop afterward, plus this wastes two weeks.

2019121812_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

It is Christmas AM and there is SE RIDGE under my tree:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f168_ussm.gif

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12 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Jan 2016 was the ultimate interior screw job.  I literally felt sick to my stomach seeing a dusting while 90 miles south had an ultimate 2 feet blizzard.  This will be very hard to make up for. 

Kind of like how March 2001 feels for so many around NYC and New Jersey, although that feeling was worse for them since the bullseye was initially there.  We interior folks were never in the game to begin with in Jan 16. 

I was in TX for the Jan 2016 event. My town had 25” or maybe more. Yup, sickening. That was maybe once in a lifetime where I’m from. 

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20 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 35degs., or about 0.5degs. BN.

Month to date is  -1.1[38.5].       Should be about  -0.9[37.4] by the 26th.

33* here at 6am.

Our main models have little of interest for the remainder of the year it seems.      Some snow showers is the most we can hope for in conjunction with one Arctic like day.

Today
Scattered snow showers, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. West wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tonight
Scattered snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming clear, with a low around 15. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 28. Wind chill values between zero and 10. Northwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 22. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 34. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 24.
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 37.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 47.
Monday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 39.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.
I would really love to know where you get your data from I have to assume that you pick the warmest guidance and post it  here. If you take the average of the official National Weather Service forecast for the next 7 days it's slightly under 32 degrees which is about 4 degrees below normal which means we will be -1.9 through the 24th of December. Consequently we will have to finish the last 7 days averaging + 7 just to get to normal. The probability of that happening is highly unlikely. December will  finish with a negative departure. 
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Quick Arctic shot coming up next few days.  Then we get our annual warm up potential before Christmas. The monthly departures will be decided by the temperatures during the last week of the month. The average NYC high and low for the last week of December is 40/29. So anything above 40 degrees is considered mild.

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/18/2019  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO
 X/N  37| 17  25| 21  34| 26  36| 31  45| 36  51| 44  53| 38  46 28 41
 TMP  29| 18  24| 23  32| 27  35| 33  43| 38  48| 45  48| 39  43      
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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Christmas day high temps on the EURO. 

download.thumb.png.525c7c42c79d717170f1851f2f3f7b6b.png

 

 

People have been saying torch? Seems reasonable to me for Christmas

 

One thing is for sure, whatever is going on in the atmosphere the models keep flip flopping, hey at least its still fall, long way to go...I wont take what the models say serious at this point

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EURO is colder on Christmas, but real fun starts later into Jan.    GFS looks like it is climbing a ladder T-wise after tomorrow.

Let's not forget the EURO did have a run last [Thurs. AM] week where it showed  a low of 4 and a high of 7 for the 22nd, I believe.        The next run was 30 degrees higher here and 50 degrees higher upstate, where the major negative anomaly was located.     It is a mortal model like the others.

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