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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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GFS throws out the tease again for a couple days after the Dec 2'nd storm. Starting to get some somewhat promising looks on the models now for that period of time. Big player at that time is what we see the Dec 2nd storm do. If we can see a legit 50/50 from that system then it could possibly be game on.

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^nearly all the accumulation south of Mason-Dixon comes from the ULL.  Historically, we lose 9.9/10 times this way south of Mason-Dixon.

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Certainly not an impossible solution. Maybe some similarities to December 82 storm. If memory serves I think the first part of the storm was a cold rain with a little mix then the coastal took over and most of the forum got thumped. 

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Traditionally, the center of the ULL going west to east along the I-64 corridor works for DCA and points north.  The evolution depicted above is okay for jackpotville and the hills, but not for the majority of us, too far north.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Traditionally, the center of the ULL going west to east along the I-64 corridor works for DCA and points north.  The evolution depicted above is okay for jackpotville and the hills, but not for the majority of us, too far north.

Yeah but where was the center two days ago...or yesterday? Its not like the potential is hitting tonight 

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The FV3 is still the Oprah of snowstorms.. we have to see. The 500MB track shifting south on the GEFS is much more exciting to see. Can this be like 13/14 when storms looked north and came south? I know they did for so many other reasons that year, I just want snow!

 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Give me the GEFS hr132-138 at peak climo and I would be FULLY...um...ready for snow? 990mb off OC? Drool. 

Hoco/Moco death band is evident on this panel. 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19.png

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I guess this is a good time to remind myself that 21/21 of GEFS members showing >1" of snow for College Park does not equate with a 100% chance of >1". 

 

Fractions below depend on end point 

>12" 4/21

> 6" 6/21

>3" 12/21

"1" 21/22

Unknown.png

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Give me the GEFS hr132-138 at peak climo and I would be FULLY...um...ready for snow? 990mb off OC? Drool. 

If we can just get a pattern repeat of basically the last few weeks and the next week sometime between Dec 15 and Feb 15th I think most of us will be happy.  

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45 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Yeah but where was the center two days ago...or yesterday? Its not like the potential is hitting tonight 

agreed.  this one is worth watching

#1 cause its the first of the year for many of us (i had my surprise first 1'' on Sunday)

#2 cause many of us are off and will not have much else to do, other than walk off Turkey/stuffing.

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GFS has 3 sub 990 coastal storms during the forecast cycle....and a 4th that is just too far off shore to count.  Lets keep this repetition going....

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I hope nobody takes my posts the wrong way. Anyone who is used to my posts knows that I’m a very optimistic person when it comes to our chances, sometimes stupidly so. But seriously, have you ever seen us get s winter storm from a wrapped up low in Nebraska?

I won’t even be here this weekend but I still hope for snow. I want everyone to get some fun. So can anybody give me some hope and a rationale that could support it for this event?

Ummm...weather will do what weather wants to do? :weenie:

Given the GFS cold bias I'd like to see a couple other models get on board pretty soon.....otherwise cold rain is the better bet. 

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Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

Euro Vort Map.png

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23 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Expected to see a better surface depiction after seeing this at 500.  Does it have to do with the angle of approach of the ULL?  I know most of out storms have it trek through the VA/NC boarder but this is moving more NW to SE as it crosses the area.

 

if the trend at 500 continues, i think the surface depiction will latch onto what is happening above and we would see a correction at lower levels.  

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if the trend at 500 continues, i think the surface depiction will latch onto what is happening above and we would see a correction at lower levels.  

I've always had this question - do models actually suffer from this? I'd assume that each run has no "recollection" of what the prior ran show. Therefore, shouldn't it just show what is modeled regardless of the prior run? 

Mods and shadow mods - this was not intended to be OT. 

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