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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The trend for the LR to look far from catastrophic continues on the 12z GEFS. The super positive AO is gone, with it probably neutral or weakly positive by the 3rd or so. Still looks to me like there’s a lot of spread after the 3rd or 4th.

Looks familiar... kinda like the base state in 13-14. lol.  -EPO/+AO/WAR showing up. If that's as "bad" as it gets then at least we're not in a shutout pattern. Checking through the GEFS it seems like there's 2 camps down the line. One camp has a GOA trough, +AO, pac air regime and the other camp keeps things more amplified with a +PNA/-EPO/trough in the east.

All members agree on progressive flow down the line. My total WAG is we end up seeing both camps. As the AO goes positive we'll have a period of zonal pac air mild followed by the PNA ridge going up and trough returning to the east. 

I'm totally good with a mild/crap period as long as it's short and morphs into something that can at least keep us in the game. GEFS/EPS are both trending away from epic disaster. 

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Snow on the euro!! :o:weenie::snowman:

hr132 has snow for points N and E of DC and continues at 138!  Weenie maps have 4” for Baltimore! Lol

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's all about ridging above the closed ULL and the spacing with the 50/50. It's certainly possible for a further south track but even as is the track is defying the atmosphere. Closed ULLs that track over Des Moines rarely work out here and the typical trend is north for these features as leads shorten. This is d5 so plenty can change. Just root for the bowling ball to be weaker and further south through the midwest. Faster would be better too. 

gfs_z500a_namer_24.png

 

It's an interesting setup for sure and I'm def watching it. I just don't like the odds here. The ULL is very strong in the midwest and it's going to try it's hardest to push against ridging and confluence. I remember the Feb 2015 storm (superbowl weekend?) that models all had a good track in the med range but guidance kept ticking north as leads shortened and it ended up being a whiff. IIRC, that ULL tracked right over Indianapolis. This one is further north as is. But there's also a blocking ridge to the north and pretty strong confluence to the east. The faster the ull tracks across the conus the better. 

 

 

If one looks at the potential weekend event on the GFS, there's more than a little bouncing around on the surface low evolution, and it seems plausable that as we near and see a better track that the potential for the ULL to catch the surface as it really slows once it hits the coast.  Get that surface low to ride a little further south and it could be a nice little surprise IMO.

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks familiar... kinda like the base state in 13-14. lol.  -EPO/+AO/WAR showing up. If that's as "bad" as it gets then at least we're not in a shutout pattern. Checking through the GEFS it seems like there's 2 camps down the line. One camp has a GOA trough, +AO, pac air regime and the other camp keeps things more amplified with a +PNA/-EPO/trough in the east.

All members agree on progressive flow down the line. My total WAG is we end up seeing both camps. As the AO goes positive we'll have a period of zonal pac air mild followed by the PNA ridge going up and trough returning to the east. 

I'm totally good with a mild/crap period as long as it's short and morphs into something that can at least keep us in the game. GEFS/EPS are both trending away from epic disaster. 

13/14 had another wild pattern as I remember the best snow track shifting south. That was such a strange memory for that year. I think I remember one time the track went from Maine to south of us delivering central VA the goods. That was such a wild year, as many were good for our backyard. 

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs looks less awful heading into mid December. 

Yeah it looks once beyond the 12/6 timeframe that the PAC ridge/ trough East seems to stay their right through the end.  Doesn't appear crazy cold, but if timed right, cold enough to get a festive feel in the air.  Tellies really dont really support what the GEFS is showing (in my mind anyway - mostly PNA), but enough neutrals to say....ok...maybe.

 

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Euro gets it done just by slightly strengthening that high to our north and also starting the coastal transfer earlier to our south. Like the gfs, euro takes the ULL basically overhead and takes the precip with it through central VA.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro gets it done just by slightly strengthening that high to our north and also starting the coastal transfer earlier to our south. Like the gfs, euro takes the ULL basically overhead and takes the precip with it through central VA.

Im impressed that a monster bowling ball actually loses latitude between the plains and the east coast. Think of what could have been if it started weaker and further south.

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Im impressed that a monster bowling ball actually loses latitude between the plains and the east coast. Think of what could have been if it started weaker and further south.

It still might. This is still a good distance into the future.

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12Z Euro starts the weekend event as some snow in my yard, transitioning to a prolonged period of 31-32 degree FZRA,  A few degrees colder than progged could make a much bigger impact.

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45 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It still might. This is still a good distance into the future.

Looking at last 6 runs of MSLP, yeah i guess it has trended somewhat S and E, but Id think it a bit of a stretch to get it under us.

 

edit....as i keep watching, it may not bee too far off from doable.

2c8e8211-2479-42ce-b028-7eea076973d4.gif

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Fwiw ...Looking at Gefs h5 plots on Ewall there's more chances down the pipe after the Dec 1/2 storm . Day 9/10 ... which the op Euro hinted at...and around day 12/13 . I know it's way out there but good to see nonetheless. 

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Wow, so how early do the " big spenders " get to see the Euro weeklies.  Out already, normally I look for 6:00 PM. release. 

And yes, the trend is your friend !    Looking forward to seeing the progression.  

 

 

 

 

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12z EPS is an improvement in the sense that it want from nothin' to something for the weekend threat, but not a ton of members that look like the OP.

I'd say there are about 13 members that are (somewhat?) interesting for our subforum, and that is a pretty low bar.

1575266400-Kd4MQQzdSo0.png

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Well now, liking the looks of this. All I ask for is putting pressure on the vortex. 

Following your "good vibes " post there @showmethesnow Things look interesting again.  Hoping we follow up with wave 2. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, frd said:

Wow, so how early do the " big spenders " get to see the Euro weeklies.  Out already, normally I look for 6:00 PM. release. 

And yes, the trend is your friend !    Looking forward to seeing the progression.  

 

 

 

 

It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things.  The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern.

Euro Weekly.png

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Euro/EPS both agree on speeding up the ULL next week and that's prob the main reason the op had waa snow working out. There will be a half decent airmass in front on the ULL and the 50/50 is going to try pretty hard to not allow it to run east out to sea. To get "easy snow" just root for the fastest track possible of the waa shield. The "complicated snow" with the ULL isn't nearly as clear cut. Calendar and gut instinct tell me that we're chasing a phantom with the WAA snow let alone an ULL tracking SE across our area but I can't remember the last time I've seen such a beast of a 50/50. Maybe being uber conservative isn't warranted. At the very least... we are still in the game for something. An inch or 2 of snow during the first week of Dec would calm a few weenies down (like me in particular). 

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13 minutes ago, LP08 said:

It' moves to a +PNA, -EPO pattern without much help on the Atlantic side of things.  The "nice" thing is it keeps pushing back that crap pattern.

Euro Weekly.png

It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving  away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that. 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's a logical continuation from the 0z run which was already moving  away from the +AO look. Not worth much more than that. 

Exactly. 0z Eps brings back -EPO/+PNA at the end, so it shows it also for week 3. 

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I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I posted this in my home forum but I am thinking (maybe already said here haven't read) that the spike in the AO some guidance is seeing will be short-lived. The reason for the spike imo is the stretching/splitting of the TPV across the AO region and eventually into SE Canada. Once the PV splits or moves chances are the ao returns to negative....neutral at worst. I dont think what we are seeing irt that spike is a pattern flip or something that is permanent. Sure it will fluctuate + and - all winter but I think the panic over a sustained +ao in dec may not be totally warranted. 

Did ya hear? Prince died. Bowie too.

 

 

Lol jk. Yes, all of that has been discussed here, obviously.

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23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro/EPS both agree on speeding up the ULL next week and that's prob the main reason the op had waa snow working out. There will be a half decent airmass in front on the ULL and the 50/50 is going to try pretty hard to not allow it to run east out to sea. To get "easy snow" just root for the fastest track possible of the waa shield. The "complicated snow" with the ULL isn't nearly as clear cut. Calendar and gut instinct tell me that we're chasing a phantom with the WAA snow let alone an ULL tracking SE across our area but I can't remember the last time I've seen such a beast of a 50/50. Maybe being uber conservative isn't warranted. At the very least... we are still in the game for something. An inch or 2 of snow during the first week of Dec would calm a few weenies down (like me in particular). 

Yea...the ull definitely has sped up looking at the Eps as u mentioned but also I've noticed the 50/50 low has been migrating west each and every run . Pretty decent trends ...hopefully it continues. 

Man...your not kidding with the 50/50 on roids lol

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34 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Happy Hour GFS NY/NE blizzard is just dispiriting to look 

Not to me ....I'd much prefer tracking a coastal then the alternative warm and dry or cold and dry .:D . One thing is a lock and that's 7 days from now this solution verbatim will be different. The op Gfs actually has bumped south the last several runs. 

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I think it was a month or so ago when I posted about the PDO potentially shifting towards the positive phase if the pattern of troughs in the NE pac verifies. It wasn't as much of a shift as I had hoped but the PDO did move positive. I haven't checked the numerical index yet but visually it's no doubt better than a month ago. 

anomnight.11.25.2019.gif

If the trend holds up for another month we'll have a legit +PDO and that's always a good thing. We'll see how it goes as Isotherm specifically included a -PDO as part of his winter forecast and one of the reasons he went warm in the east. It was one of the few things I saw potential problems with when I first read his forecast. 

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Comparing 18z to 12z, seems the redeveloping LP is further sw and somewhat larger at 18z . Am I reading this correctly  and if so, does it mean anything significant as to its evolution?

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