• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WXMal4
    Newest Member
    WXMal4
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS with a more wintry initial thump at 108. NW areas holding on at 114.

Liking the continuing trends on guidance so far with more ridging/blocking up top forcing things S.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More than a southward trend on the path of the ULL, the GFS has clearly trended to a weaker one. That reduces the ridging out ahead of it and makes for a bit less warm push aloft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Liking the continuing trends on guidance so far with more ridging/blocking up top forcing things S.

My thoughts exactly...baby steps each run with that ridge near Hudson Bay.  Keeps nosing east and holding longer each run...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxUSAF said:

More than a southward trend on the path of the ULL, the GFS has clearly trended to a weaker one. That reduces the ridging out ahead of it and makes for a bit less warm push aloft.

Yeah i'm just looking over the 500 panels and it does seem to thwart the warm nose a bit.  still needs to go about 100 miles south to make this really interesting.  Plenty of time i guess.  540's are backing into NE Pa, and still may be able to collapse the column further in the coming days if we keep with the trends.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS gets us into some of the coastal action but just too warm at the surface for DC metro.  Looks better for Jackpotville.  

Delmarva gets pummeled at 144, NE Maryland gets snow.

Getting much closer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Darn close to a CMD pummeling...

lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WxUSAF said:

lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted. 

now that i hit refesh...well i'll be darned.  Time to limit Turkey intake, as ya'll dont wanna be sleepy this weekend.  Lots of model watching to be had. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted. 

that's good. i could use some snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sober reminder here that everyone should have very low/no expectations for this storm. It’s way too goofy of a setup. Plus the gfs long range cold bias.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted. 

Dude it's the ultimate mid range tease... lol. Is the entire progression really going to be lateral like that? It's possible but I'm not placing any bets. 

I do like the closed ULL track. Even without CCB stuff we're on the good side of dynamics/instability as the ULL exits stage right. 

This whole thing should keep me occupied while my sister drives me nutz in CT over the holiday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol gfs is such a tease. ULL captures the surface low just in right spot, temps crash, and @mappy gets pasted. 

GEFS mean and its members should be fun to see then

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, yoda said:

GEFS mean and its members should be fun to see then

I think there’s going to be some bizarre divergence this winter between the gfs and GEFS because of the dynamical core differences. We’ve already seen that a bit and we’re continuing to see it in the strat. I’m really not sure how to interpret any differences either. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I circled the most important change on the GFS. There's defined separation with the trough north of the closed ULL. The cuts off the destructive mid level return flow that will easily wreck the column overhead and north of us. Since the features are separated it allows the dynamics of the ULL to stay consolidated and draw in colder air and not allow a big warm mid-level push. 

FUdEuGP.jpg

 

Is it believable? I suppose it's possible or the model wouldn't show it. Give me like 5 runs in a row with separation like this and my inner weenie will do things. 

 

ETA: I didn't explain things properly above... The separation is what allows the track to be further south (no tug poleward) as the closed low crosses the region. Keeping the dynamic core of the ULL intact allows good things to happen this far south. I hope that makes more sense. I'm having problems with thoughts and words... lol

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see this as possibly some light frozen in the beginning, mostly rain, ull thumps the mountains to our west, coastal gives the eastern areas a shot at some wrap around snow, but most of the northern va area is left with next to nothing. Don’t see this as a cad setup either. 
 

Not at all trying to be negative but my “reality” check tells me this is a no chance scenario for at least my local area. Eastern MD possibly but not for most of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whether some things or just noise or the real deal we are seeing improvements where we need to see them. We are seeing both the initial blocking over Canada a touch farther south and  the ridging in front of the system is show better ridging in the upper portion where we need to see it. These are slight changes and could very well be noise but whatever they are they have slightly adjusted the upper low track when it gets handed off to the 50/50s influence. That is when we are seeing the biggest difference made. We are now seeing much more interaction between the NS energy (the energy that was screwing up the Canadian heights in prior runs) and the 50/50 (Saw this in yesterdays 12Z as well). If you compare this run to the previous you can see how this is impacting the flow in the N-Atlantic and it is a difference maker on the placement of the upper low off the coast.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Whether some things or just noise or the real deal we are seeing improvements where we need to see them. We are seeing both the initial blocking over Canada a touch farther south and  the ridging in front of the system is show better ridging in the upper portion where we need to see it. These are slight changes and could very well be noise but whatever they are they have slightly adjusted the upper low track when it gets handed off to the 50/50s influence. That is when we are seeing the biggest difference made. We are now seeing much more interaction between the NS energy (the energy that was screwing up the Canadian heights in prior runs) and the 50/50 (Saw this in yesterdays 12Z as well). If you compare this run to the previous you can see how this is impacting the flow in the N-Atlantic and it is a difference maker on the placement of the upper low off the coast.

50/50 is the way to do this IMO.  get that to back in a little more and force this whole deal a bit further south and that would be a way to score.  We need the ridging out front to get squashed/forced south.  50/50 would do that for us...or a good HP placement.  I'd take either.  I'm not picky.  . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

  50/50 would do that for us...or a good HP placement.  I'd take either.  I'm not picky.  . 

They pretty much work in unison right? HP can only move where the 50/50 lets it. 

The handoff is uber complicated and we're going to get teased bigly every 6 hours. The front running WAA piece isn't nearly as complicated and also (stating obvious) the most likely way we'll get snow in the DC area. You are in a much better place for the big show. I've seen this show too many times and even when models are straight locked and loaded with 1-2 day leads the script is re-written in real time and my yard is kicked off the stage. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope nobody takes my posts the wrong way. Anyone who is used to my posts knows that I’m a very optimistic person when it comes to our chances, sometimes stupidly so. But seriously, have you ever seen us get s winter storm from a wrapped up low in Nebraska?

I won’t even be here this weekend but I still hope for snow. I want everyone to get some fun. So can anybody give me some hope and a rationale that could support it for this event?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ggem says no, but closer than 0z. Loses mid level temps before the WAA precip arrives. Gfs a smidge colder, so it’s frozen precip. Ggem then takes the ULL through PA so we get some backside flurries/rain showers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I hope nobody takes my posts the wrong way. Anyone who is used to my posts knows that I’m a very optimistic person when it comes to our chances, sometimes stupidly so. But seriously, have you ever seen us get s winter storm from a wrapped up low in Nebraska?

I won’t even be here this weekend but I still hope for snow. I want everyone to get some fun. So can anybody give me some hope and a rationale that could support it for this event?

I would feel pretty good if I lived in NE PA, NNJ, into SNE right now. The GFS scenario is obv not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely to me. CMC  looks more realistic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, pasnownut said:

50/50 is the way to do this IMO.  get that to back in a little more and force this whole deal a bit further south and that would be a way to score.  We need the ridging out front to get squashed/forced south.  50/50 would do that for us...or a good HP placement.  I'd take either.  I'm not picky.  . 

The ridging (between the 50/50 and the incoming upper low) is a tricky deal. Might seem counter intuitive but we need that ridging initially to be strong in the upper portions of the ridge to help block the upper lows movement northeast. As long as the greater height builds are seen in the northern portion and the southern portion stays weak or even weakens we will be fine as currently depicted as it will not effect the flow through our region. Just follow the height lines from the Midwest into the east and you can get an idea what I am referring to. Now one other thing I haven't mentioned as of yet is that we are seeing the response that we see from the upper low (dropping southward through our region) because we are seeing this strong ridging. Take that out (weaken/squash/force south the ridge ) the incentive for the upper low to drop goes away. So the ridge is a necessary evil in this setup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1575309600-f1zNtbihnzE.png

Mean is definitely distorted by the couple of SECS but... too good not to share.

1575309600-sdgnTVoVlaU.png

SECS? At least 2 of those are HECS, especially for early December. Definitely getting more interesting. Let's see what the King has to say.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.