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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

And, I know you know this poolz1 ,  but we have already experienced a minor warming and it appears yet another minor warming is anticipated in the first half of December. 

 

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow. 

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z gfs is a smidge faster than 6z, but need more to recover a chance of WAA snow. 

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?:weenie:

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

I am looking at zonal winds at 10 mb. 

But, as you mentioned , and also brought up by HM indirectly, is this set-up forecasted by both the Euro and the GFS.  

On a side note, I have not looked today, but hearing the wave 2 follow-up may not be as significant then first thought for early to mid- December. A lot will change moving forward, no worries there yet. 

 

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Basically from 900mb to the surface is above freezing.  Would need to be a thump/convective or start to trend just a bit colder...3 or 4 degrees would do the trick for most.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?:weenie:

Have to question whether the GFS bias for cold recently is also coming into play. So though we may get a better looking 500's we still lose the temps.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers. 

 

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?:weenie:

The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work.

Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

The ULL generates precip, but the boundary layer is just torched. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if snow mixed in, but the temps need major work.

Having the low speed up again to bring the WAA precip back in Saturday isn’t crazy. Only talking like 12-18 hours earlier.

WAA precip quite often comes in sooner then projected so there is always that.

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Looking at the greatest neg anom 850 temps they actually scoot to the south of our region with the 500 low passage. We are left on the northern fringe with very marginal temps. Would be hard to overcome the lower level warmth even with good rates.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The WAA could come back, and I won’t kick it out of bed if it does, but I’m mildly interested in some snow with the upper low. I know the guidance is pretty dry and warm with that but given that track I find it hard to believe we don’t at least get some instability snow showers. 

Im with ya........and the ull pass is still almost 120 hours out.... I'm just following any trends . 

 

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

WAA precip quite often comes in sooner then projected so there is always that.

Yea...And often its juicier as we near.  Im rooting for it but Temps are so marginal before hand ...without any dynamics I think it will be tough unless it was a few weeks later in winter but the ull with its associated dynamics rolling through Monday morning/ Afternoon could surprise . And there's also the coastal deform :)

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

Im with ya........and the ull pass is still almost 120 hours out.... I'm just following any trends . 

 

Yea...And often its juicier as we near.  Im rooting for it but Temps are so marginal before hand ...without any dynamics I think it will be tough unless it was a few weeks later in winter but the ull with its associated dynamics rolling through Monday morning/ Afternoon could surprise . And there's also the coastal deform :)

With that upper low passage it is hard to give up on this. But the last day and a half runs have been a death by a thousand cuts. 3+ days so there is still time but...

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

CMC looks a bit colder for the WAA and further south with the ull. Fwiw

Pushes the confluence associated with the 50-50 farther west so it holds the cold air in a bit more. 

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Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR.  Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

7ZzLfEl.png

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Finally an op run that somewhat resembles the idea of blocking returning in the LR.  Obviously, not to be taken literally but this is how the current period of blocking started to be advertised....

 

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

Couldnt agree more....I would be more than happy to do away with having to add caveats, grains of salt, etc... 

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think 99% of us here know not to take ANYTHING in the long range too seriously.  But that said, it's still better to see good runs than bad ones.  And looking at general pattern trends is not the same as looking at a specific synoptic event at day 15.  So I think we should be able to post when something looks good in a general pattern sense and log it into "this is good" evidence without having to always have the disclaimer that we shouldn't take it literally.  I would rather just ignore the random posts we get every so often by some clown telling us not to look at long range guidance.  

I find it confusing why such people hang out in a LR thread.

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am guessing this is what you would call a -AO?

-ao.gif.741352b4ffbfab9314e4b8d9df3bab27.gif

 

I think for now it's also relevant to see what the op GFS does because the GEFS is currently based on a completely different model.  For now we don't have an ensemble suit for the op GFS and so while we definitely cannot put that much stock into a single run at range, its the only thing we have giving us a hint at what it "thinks" att.  

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Interesting post by Isotherm from 33. 

 

Other proxies of northern hemispheric, vortex status indicate the predilection for lower-geopotential heights in the Arctic domain, but particularly the NAO domain in the means, as delineated in my outlook. November 2019 ozone data evinces generally lower concentrations near/over Greenland to the north of Europe.

 

image.png

 

 

 

 

When juxtaposed with the mean November climatological ozone, it has generally been less extensive in those domains.

 

 

image.png

 

 

 

 

 

Moreover, the polar vortex area is now running well above normal, circa 30 million km^2.

 

image.png

 

 

Expansion in vortex area is generally a precursor / presages tropospheric NAM significant incline.

Again, as Don alluded to above, while aesthetically pleasing stratospheric maps continue to be circulated, it's integral to examine exactly what is transpiring in the troposphere as far as the veridical data. SPV intensity diminution doesn't always correlate directly to tropospheric vortex status. 

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There will not be a disfavorable oscillation for December.   Whether it’s nw-n-ne of us  the highs will be there and slide east and not se to form a se ridge. As these highs depart they will be replenished by the next one.

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8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

There will not be a disfavorableble oscillation for December.   Whether it’s nw-n-ne of us  the highs will be there and slide east and not se to form a se ride. As these highs depart they will be replenished by the next one.

Uhhh what?

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EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way.  Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole.  

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has 5 sleet pellets to start for N MD. 

But GEFS looks nice for the 2nd week of December. 

We take :weenie:

Actually it was a bit colder for the waa Sunday early morning . 

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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Just curious why you consider the current warming minor (which I consider pretty significant) let alone the projected one in early December that is showing a huge expanse of temps that are off the scale so we have no idea the true warmth. I am looking at the GEFS are you looking elsewhere? Or maybe you are going by the 10 mb winds?

I think what a lot of experts “mean” is that the warming isn’t going to have a major impact on the TPV. It’s confusing the way they talk about it because warning is warming and anyone can see the temps and deduce it’s warmer. But when they say a major SSWE they typically mean is it having a major impact to the troposphere. There is a lot of discussion that this current warming isn’t going to do that for various reasons that I don’t care to get into since most of its above my pay grade. 

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