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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.

On a standard boxplot it would be the 25th to 75th percentile, so that would be my first guess.

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36 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

 

Anyway consider me bummed.  It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO.  I had my hopes set on the EPO.

Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. 

We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie

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46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.

You’re right, I didn’t zoom in. Looks like a box whisker plot. But that would mean it’s not a percentile because that would be more uniform.

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course I'd much prefer a -ao but the long range doesn't look bad at all anymore. There will likely be a shortlived period of zonal/pac air next week but there's universal agreement on the pna going up and keeping us in a "non-shutout pattern". My gut hunch is the epo will not be hostile either. I'm also not sold on a long duration big nasty +ao setting up shop. A lot of hints being dropped that blocking (of some kind) will be close by. 

We all want a perfect pattern 24/7 but that's no how it works. Ultimately we just need to spend as much time as possible in a non-shutout pattern and just let simple odds take over. Our area typically needs 4 legit chances per event that actually delivers. Keep the non shutout pattern going, the chances coming, and we'll score. There's nothing worse than a 4-6+ week shutout pattern setting up during met winter. I'm not seeing that threat at all right now and that's a good reason to have a happy weenie

I just have nightmares of a pig Pacific vortex or a 594 dm death ridge in the Atlantic a la Dec 2015.   They haunt me.

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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re right, I didn’t zoom in. Looks like a box whisker plot. But that would mean it’s not a percentile because that would be more uniform.

Percentiles aren't necessarily symmetric.  It all depends on the underlying data.  There must be some extreme outliers on both sides.

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27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukmet total snow through Tuesday.  Not sure the algorithm used but I'd take it .

 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_191128_123836858_crop_1267x1220.jpg

I heard in the winter of 2019-2020, the Ukmet is using the :weenie: algorithm. 

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

If the 12z Euro is correct Philly into most of NJ is in for a pummeling. :weenie:

Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Deform band? How’s the ULL look for us? I’m resigned to the WAA probably just being some pingers for N MD before the rain.

It's all backside love with the ULL.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

It's all backside love with the ULL.

Euro snow map looks a lot like the GGEM and ukie. Looking better that the northern 1/3rd of the subforum could be measuring Monday evening. I’m gonna do my best to slant stick 0.1”.

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Whoa! Euro using the :weenie:algorithm of the Ukmet. :lol: Seriously. We might not even need to slant stick our way to getting on the board. Hope this trend keeps up for the rest of today’s runs. Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

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49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just a bit stronger with the ridging N/NW of the upper low this run.

Noticed that.  And today's runs have a theme so far of the ull low tugging or catching the surface low better "pulling"the surface low further sw ...most models have showed this today. I've also noticed the tendency of some guidance with the low further sw dont continue on a northeast trajectory but east which could keep eastern areas in the qpf longer . Here's to another 50 - 100 mile shift sw :weenie:

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I wouldn't count out getting some snow from the upper level low/wrap around from the coastal low. Looking at the individual members of the eps theres over a dozen that get snows from the coastel low into central and northeastern md and even  more that gets good snows into southern/eastern pa. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Noticed that.  And today's runs have a theme so far of the ull low tugging or catching the surface low better "pulling"the surface low further sw ...most models have showed this today. I've also noticed the tendency of some guidance with the low further sw dont continue on a northeast trajectory but east which could keep eastern areas in the qpf longer . Here's to another 50 - 100 mile shift sw :weenie:

I’m not expecting this and am generally optimistic we get some snow from the ULL but one thing to be careful of if the coastal ends up closer but not close enough, we could end up in the subsidence outside the banding. If the coastal was further away it would actually increase our chances of convective banding with the ULL. A trend towards a closer coastal ups the ante for all or nothing. 

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High pressures are being undervalued by models..This is the winter of well situated highs so add about 5-8mb  to the crunch time assessments of 48-72 hours in advance.

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