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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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3 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

By the looks of it that copycat could be lurking on the forum right at this second.. keep an eye out. 

 

Edit: A quick little search and a user "WeathermanB" pops up. Apparently a banned poster from March of last year. It appears that poster still hasn't learned any lessons.

Yeah, I remember him going completely out of line and saying something that wouldn't fly anywhere. Makes sense that he got banned. 

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24 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Yeah, I remember him going completely out of line and saying something that wouldn't fly anywhere. Makes sense that he got banned. 

Is he the kid from Delaware?  

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Kinda spooky in a way isn’t it?

What's even spookier is the NAO looks to be at least moderately positive after basically tomorrow although we have a +PNA building on the ensembles as well.

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlooks

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Just for some perspective.  Snowfall at BWI by decade.  Avg and # of above normal years. 

1970s 17.8”/3 above  

1980s 18.5”/4 above

1990s  17.7”/2 above 

2000s  18”/2 above

2010s  24”/4 above 

so the last decade was the best in Baltimore for snowfall since the 1960s.  Obviously it’s not hurting us that much.  

If anything the extremely anomalous 3 year run from 2013-16 raised expectations such that the last few winters seem worse than they are.  While not great they were a pretty typical 3 year stretch.  Nothing too awful by historical standards.  Truth is we had the best snowfall decade in a long time yet some people act like we’ve been getting screwed.  

Indeed...And 3 of the 4 above average years came in a row! (something else that kinda rare--hasn't happened since, well, the legendary snow 60s, lol) For this region, it's been a pretty good decade overall (better than the previous two!). But I'm sure it's recency bias that may make it feel like we've been screwed--but, as you said, we've actually done pretty good! I guess my question about the MJO was rooted in an, er...slightly illogical concern about possible climate change making some anti-snow factor in the atmosphere become more of the norm. Thankfully we don't see that so far (uh, right? Lol)

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I would be perfectly content rolling through the winter with this general look. Though this isn't quite the full month of November (through the 27th) it is close enough to give us a good idea of what heights we saw at 500's for the month. Very sweet look IMO. 

PAC looks great with a -EO/+PNA combo over cutting a weakness in the SW. Aleutian low with troughing extending towards Hawaii. EO/PNA delivers the cold, Aleutian low delivers the energy for an active PAC jet and NS. SW weakness provides a split flow and energy injected into the southern stream. The higher heights over Mexico/Gulf help bump up that southern stream into the southern US.

Atlantic looks good as well. Central/eastern based -NAO to provide blocking. Higher heights in the central Atlantic to help offset the suppressive nature of a strong EO/PNA combo. If you also note the weakness extending between these two features (lower heights) this provides a slot for storms to travel through the 50/50 region potentially getting trapped by the -NAO. Between the PAC setup and the Atlantic we are see the troughing being forced into the eastern US. Also note the lack of lower pressures over the Arctic regions (-AO). 

I would take this look every winter and expect at worst an average winter with good odds of it being above to well above.

Nov500anoms.gif.4ce60dce4366e07837f8e697f28f960c.gif

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42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I would be perfectly content rolling through the winter with this general look. Though this isn't quite the full month of November (through the 27th) it is close enough to give us a good idea of what heights we saw at 500's for the month. Very sweet look IMO. 

PAC looks great with a -EO/+PNA combo over cutting a weakness in the SW. Aleutian low with troughing extending towards Hawaii. EO/PNA delivers the cold, Aleutian low delivers the energy for an active PAC jet and NS. SW weakness provides a split flow and energy injected into the southern stream. The higher heights over Mexico/Gulf help bump up that southern stream into the southern US.

Atlantic looks good as well. Central/eastern based -NAO to provide blocking. Higher heights in the central Atlantic to help offset the suppressive nature of a strong EO/PNA combo. If you also note the weakness extending between these two features (lower heights) this provides a slot for storms to travel through the 50/50 region potentially getting trapped by the -NAO. Between the PAC setup and the Atlantic we are see the troughing being forced into the eastern US. Also note the lack of lower pressures over the Arctic regions (-AO). 

I would take this look every winter and expect at worst an average winter with good odds of it being above to well above.

Nov500anoms.gif.4ce60dce4366e07837f8e697f28f960c.gif

Nice look Showme. Pretty consistent pattern evolving next few weeks with higher heights building over the western US heading into December. A prime split-flow pattern with ample disturbances traversing the sub-tropical jet. Still a bit hesitant from what I'm seeing on the ensembles in the extended, but I wouldn't worry too much about that now. In fact, both ECM/GEFS begin to take on a better look after mid-month. Source region for cold will be solid, so even a shutout will have some benefit for later in the extended (i.e beyond mid-December). I'd take that look anytime. 

 

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9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Nice look Showme. Pretty consistent pattern evolving next few weeks with higher heights building over the western US heading into December. A prime split-flow pattern with ample disturbances traversing the sub-tropical jet. Still a bit hesitant from what I'm seeing on the ensembles in the extended, but I wouldn't worry too much about that now. In fact, both ECM/GEFS begin to take on a better look after mid-month. Source region for cold will be solid, so even a shutout will have some benefit for later in the extended (i.e beyond mid-December). I'd take that look anytime. 

 

Some winters (most) it seems that the good looks in the extended deteriorate as they near in time. This winter feels different so far where the bad looks are improving. Not a bad place to be. Kind of helps sets my state of mind while others are melting down over a day 15/16 forecast.

By the way, hope Texas is treating you well. We miss you up here.

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Some winters (most) it seems that the good looks in the extended deteriorate as they near in time. This winter feels different so far where the bad looks are improving. Not a bad place to be. Kind of helps sets my state of mind while others are melting down over a day 15/16 forecast.

By the way, hope Texas is treating you well. We miss you up here.

I can agree with this. It certainly seems like that's the narrative lately. Hopefully for y'all sake it continues. I'm not super bullish on this winter by any means, but I do see a fair amount of chances incoming for the season. Actually bumped my snow fall forecast a bit as a result in the contest.

And my wife and I are doing okay out in Texas. We do miss home. Hope to get back to or at least closer to the ole stomping grounds in time. Really taking advantage and learning the intricacies of forecasting in the NWS. It's pretty awesome. I love what I do, but I need my snow ;)

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I can agree with this. It certainly seems like that's the narrative lately. Hopefully for y'all sake it continues. I'm not super bullish on this winter by any means, but I do see a fair amount of chances incoming for the season. Actually bumped my snow fall forecast a bit as a result in the contest.

And my wife and I are doing okay out in Texas. We do miss home. Hope to get back to or at least closer to the ole stomping grounds in time. Really taking advantage and learning the intricacies of forecasting in the NWS. It's pretty awesome. I love what I do, but I need my snow ;)

Started looking into things for the coming winter in later October hoping to maybe try my hand at a forecast. Got far too busy to do anything more then a preliminary look. The one thing I did notice was that there were quite a bit of conflicting signals both good and bad. But watching this November it seems that quite a few of these conflicts are tending to break our way. Been liking for the most the tendencies both on the models and in verification of actual weather. So as where I was maybe leaning an avg winter in early November I am now tending for an above one (+133%). Things I am seeing also make me believe a majority of this snow will come from our bigger storms (southern lows, coastals) vs. a bunch of nickle/dime events.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Started looking into things for the coming winter in later October hoping to maybe try my hand at a forecast. Got far too busy to do anything more then a preliminary look. The one thing I did notice was that there were quite a bit of conflicting signals both good and bad. But watching this November it seems that quite a few of these conflicts are tending to break our way. Been liking for the most the tendencies both on the models and in verification of actual weather. So as where I was maybe leaning an avg winter in early November I am now tending for an above one (+133%). Things I am seeing also make me believe a majority of this snow will come from our bigger storms (southern lows, coastals) vs. a bunch of nickle/dime events.

I also see this and one of the reasons I bumped my snow for BWI higher than anyone else. Just looking at recency bias would lend credence to a more active coastal track with baroclinic proxy somewhat closer to the coast. Have had a lot of lows actually positioned very well so far in fall with QPF fields in good placement. Still missing the all important cold air to sustain any winter precip, but it was still out of climo. Roll that same kind of H5 height pattern into latter December through early March, and you have to like chances to get a good storm or two. We shall see. Unlikely I'll see any snow this year unless I chase it. Looks like ice would be our biggest threat down here, but you never know. A good snow here is actually not a good precursor for back home, so I'll take my ice or cold rain lol

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Squeeze play...under 7 days now. Bubble of hp on W North America and another squeezing over the Middle East. Looks like the warming over Siberia is legit and the SPV is getting pummeled. I'll leave it to the experts to decipher what it means but it cant be bad. Beats a strong SPV anchored over the N Pole that is stable and unpressured no?

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_12.png

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Squeeze play...under 7 days now. Bubble of hp on W North America and another squeezing over the Middle East. Looks like the warming over Siberia is legit and the SPV is getting pummeled. I'll leave it to the experts to decipher what it means but it cant be bad. Beats a strong SPV anchored over the N Pole that is stable and unpressured no?

I admit there are some positives but as you know the GEFS is at times biased weak, at least so far this early season, while the EC has done better in strat verification forecasts. However, as you mention, we are talking under 7 days here with the GEFS, so that is a positive.  

Also, according to Simmon Lee the FV3 GFS has been doing better versus the GEFS.

A quick note on the AO ensembles -  seems the forecasted extreme positives, up to +5 or more, have been trimmed back down to about + 3, with several members taking the AO back negative shortly thereafter. As HM stated previously,  the same processes causing the AO to rise will be responsible for the upcoming decline in the NAM state.   

Meanwhile, Matt is impressed by the potential down the road.  We will also get an update soon regarding the QBO. There are some interesting evolution and progressions possible in mid- January if things work in our favor.  

This is of interest as well :

 

 

 

 

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I will gladly ride the BAMMWX train ......................where can I get my ticket ?

By the way.....I still believe in snow and in holiday spirit. Hopefully, a nice time coming up for us soon for those who enjoy cold and winter scenes of snow covered fields and streets bounded with snow in a winter wonderland.   

 

 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Why is no one talking about this for next week?? :rolleyes:

 

8C25FA58-C7AE-447C-9393-244CB20A8F96.jpeg.0e6cb14145bc598bdc4b5f03c08a0ccc.jpeg

Both jet streams are somewhat progressive and the NS disturbance and SS disturbance remain separated on most if not all guidance. Would need a mechanism to nudge the SS to the North and/or amplify the NS....and then of course timing a phase would be the next obstacle. Worth watching but not a threat right now.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Both jet streams are somewhat progressive and the NS disturbance and SS disturbance remain separated on most if not all guidance. Would need a mechanism to nudge the SS to the North and/or amplify the NS....and then of course timing a phase would be the next obstacle. Worth watching but not a threat right now.

Also, that scenario would be rain.

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16 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Also, that scenario would be rain.

Euro is close to something. Temps are close below the M/D line at glance. Didnt see precip maps.

Eta: Better spot similar to tomorrow's storm ie Northeast PA, NY, NE...maybe a rain to backend snow 

ecmwf_mslpa_us_fh144-168.gif

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The euro has rain showers.

No, euro actually has snow showers for the far NW areas. WEDNESDAY 

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17 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Went really quiet in here.

In some dead space with no imminent threat worth dissecting and huge spread in the long range so we don't really have much to discuss there. However, the pattern in general isn't a shutout so something interesting can pop up any time. Until then we quiet. 

It is kind of amusing that we start Dec tomorrow and nobody has a clue how the month will shake out in the end. Dec events don't come easy but gut hunch is saying we'll get a couple shots during the second half of the month. Maybe a 1-2' NC to Philly coastal on the 24th. Big block will keep sne under blue skies. 

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Monday and Wednesday could have snow tv for some in the region. Friday/Saturday storm would be interesting with a better airmass or January climo.

After that, hard to say, but doesn’t look like a shut the drapes for weeks for sure. 

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Latest MJO forecast from the GEFS has tropical convection looping in Phase 2 and heading back towards the COD.

Another attempt at progressing into the "bad" phases thwarted perhaps. :weenie:

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

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42 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Latest MJO forecast from the GEFS has tropical convection looping in Phase 2 and heading back towards the COD.

Another attempt at progressing into the "bad" phases thwarted perhaps. :weenie:

 

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

2 in December isn’t as good as later in Winter. It’s kinda what we see now, not warm but typically not cold enough. I’ll take it vs the alternative though. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2 in December isn’t as good as later in Winter. It’s kinda what we see now, not warm but typically not cold enough. I’ll take it vs the alternative though. 

Yeah it's pretty marginal, but if it dies there it's better than progressing into 3, and continuing through all the crap phases.

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