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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dropped this hypothesis over the summer ...  

With the HC expansion stuff, early cold snaps can be intuitively fitting ... because that would tend parlay into NE Pac index responses.  Heights in that region, however subtle, average higher, lends to this...

Question is, does it last.  

The base pattern for winter may not even yet occurred - though I suspect it does in this case for other topic...

This conceptually might begin to atone for the abhorrent increase in snow occurrence in October since 2000 in general.  Interesting.

The Octobomb blew the doors off for magnitude of October snowfall, but the frequency hasn't necessarily been that much greater.  Using the local long-term co-op, 28 of 126 Octobers have recorded 1"+ snow, or 22%, but only 1 of the first 17 years tallied.  Since then it's been about 25%.  The co-op will have zero to trace this month, giving them 5 of 20 (plus a 0.5") for 2000 on.  That's right on the average.   October snow years have come in bunches throughout the record:  3-of-5 for 1922-26 and 1930-34, 4-of-6  in1950-55,  5-of-9 during 1961-69 including the 2nd/3rd/4th (tied with 2000) snowiest Octobers.  (Tops is 8.0" ion 2011.)  Other locations may show a different pattern - CAR has had 29 Octobers in 79 years with 1"+ but 9-of-19 for 2000 on, clearly more frequent.  For the equivalent 19-year span 1958-76, it was 10-of-19 and included their 2 snowiest (62 & 63.)

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It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas.  This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December.  This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas.  This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December.  This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.

Wait till that muthafukka hits the Gulf Stream!

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28 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas.  This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December.  This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.

Great post but congrats CNE NNE like last year?

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45 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas.  This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December.  This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.

Sounds like climo?

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19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe first token weenie flakes but looks cold and dry to me. 

Another panel or two and it looked god for some overrunning clipper snows. But yeah...it won't be there next run, lol. 

The flow is definitely compressed/fast. 

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