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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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A follow up from John regarding the collapse of the Chukchi Sea ridge. 

A combination of factors leading to a very cold and active period down the road.  

Awesome animation too ! 

 

  

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46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS longwave pattern is pretty gorgeous through the entire run if you like cold and snow chances. Really hope we get looks like this next month and beyond. Eastern trough locked in with -AO and +PNA. And some hints of a continued active pattern. A move toward the euro solution for next weeks possible event as well. 

EPS with a very similar look.  Both 12z ens runs with improvements in the areas needed to keep this train on track.

2slBnez.png

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Maybe even the South gets involved. Goes to show you the extent and degree of the cold air mass.    

However, as Webb mentions,  it is still early November, and what is a week among friends. 

 

 

 

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Well now, I see HM mentioned the rubber band theory. I know he reads these boards.  I also know for a fact Joel Myers from Accu Weather really did talk about this as a theory way back in the day. 

Not sure if HM's post means a moderation and change in the weather is a natural process, or whether he believes we can continue cold, or simply the most obvious might be there is no real support for the rubber band theory. Who the heck knows sometimes with Anthony.  But, I love his insights !  I imagine eventually a pattern runs its course.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

Well now, I see HM mentioned the rubber band theory. I know he reads these boards.  I also know for a fact Joel Myers from Accu Weather really did talk about this as a theory way back in the day. 

Not sure if HM's post means a moderation and change in the weather is a natural process, or whether he believes we can continue cold, or simply the most obvious might be there is no real support for the rubber band theory. Who the heck knows sometimes with Anthony.  But, I love his insights !  I imagine eventually a pattern runs its course.

 

 

Where was the rubber band all those times it was 80 in December?

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where was the rubber band all those times it was 80 in December?

Brilliant ! 

Bring on the ice age baby !

Its about time Snow Miser gets his damn revenge !  

 

 

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No comment on the sizable snowstorm next Tuesday on the GFS? Pretty sweet run with a lot of upside if the storm takes off a little earlier.

 

Whoops, people mentioned it. Didn’t load on my phone. Either way... sick run.

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No comment on the sizable snowstorm next Tuesday on the GFS? Pretty sweet run with a lot of upside if the storm takes off a little earlier.

 

Whoops, people mentioned it. Didn’t load on my phone. Either way... sick run.

3 days out maybe, not 7 days away in November. Not saying impossible but unlikely.

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3 days out maybe, not 7 days away in November. Not saying impossible but unlikely.


Don’t get me wrong, I agree that it’s very unlikely that most of the Piedmont, not to mention the coastal areas, get a snowstorm in November.

However, we definitely have the cold and pattern to pull it off. Skepticism is obviously warranted but I have a ton of fun following storms. Tracking is half — if not more of — the fun for me.
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1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:

Storm went poof on the euro but the 6z GFS looks like a big hit.  6z GFS snowmaps are silly, 10-12 inches for our area.

Wouldn't say it went poof.  It's weaker and more progressive, but still there.  Basically went from area-wide accumulation to area-wide first flakes more or less.  

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Flipping through the eps members I was pleasantly surprised at how many gave us accumulating snow next week.I wasnt expecting that after seeing last nights  OP run.

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16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I really don't want an early season snow unless it is December 5th

Does our climo really allow us to be picky about when or how it snows?  

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2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

Storm went poof on the euro but the 6z GFS looks like a big hit.  6z GFS snowmaps are silly, 10-12 inches for our area.

The 6z GFS isn’t just an early snowstorm.  It is a cold snow.  21 degrees with snow falling in the first half of Nov would be historic.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Does our climo really allow us to be picky about when or how it snows?  

I'm being simplistic obviously but I believe historically the early early season snows typically don't end up as good overall winters. I get your point though that all snows around here count including early or late. I'd just rather the snow season gets going in December or early January even. Those tend to be the more enjoyable winters in my aging mind

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13 minutes ago, mappy said:

GFS is silly

apparently my attachments storage was full -- now that its fixed. 

for @mattie g and @WxUSAF :wub:

 

download.png

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