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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Incredible bust. Can't remember ever getting less from a four-day forecast of severe storms and flooding.

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13 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

716cc71d9184c11532ecb9503055973b.jpg

Failed on storms again though.

Knights of Columbus?  We are members there!

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I don't see much severe risk upcoming. 

While it definitely doesn't look like much atm I wouldn't completely sleep on Monday. With increasing cape and modest shear if a remnant MCV moves in from the west it could spark something. Again, it's definitely not much atm but something to watch... perhaps.

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Huge CAPE values over central OK right now, exceeding 7,000 J/kg in places.. I want that here

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Some pretty nice soundings showing up on the 00z NAM tonight from 21z MON to 06z TUES

Pretty much last chance saloon for storms for next 7 to 10 days

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11 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Does seem we could go into a NW flow threat in a bit. That could make for some nice opportunity if things setup properly and timing works out. Won't hold my breath for now. 

There hasn't been any associated increase on CIPS or anything yet. 

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Hmmm... maybe?

mcd1238.gif.774050278a085b77119968e3ca97cca1.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

   Areas affected...Virginia...Maryland...Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242317Z - 250145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across
   parts of Pennsylvania southward to Virginia this evening. Weather
   watch issuance can not be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
   located from West Virginia southeastward into western Virginia with
   dewpoints ahead of the trough in lower 70s F. In response, a
   moderately unstable airmass is located from southern Pennsylvania
   into central and eastern Virginia where MLCAPE values range from
   1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms have developed in the
   central Appalachians along the western edge of the stronger
   instability. In addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPS
   show moderate deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt
   range. Although convective development will remain isolated, the
   environment should support a severe threat for a few more hours this
   evening. Wind damage and hail would be the primary threats.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/24/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

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34 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tornado warning out in WV 

what county, do you know?

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now i see the eastern panhandle ones.

these are from Kanawha County, WV—Charleston. this is outside the statehouse. it’s labeled as a tornado but i don’t think it is.

 

632E26D8-6D40-4865-A98D-6C6422A2E6B6.jpeg

CCF2FCD6-937B-4087-AB1C-03FFF898FE49.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

what county, do you know?

It was out in Grant and Hardy... but was canceled after rotation weakened

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1 hour ago, wxtrix said:

now i see the eastern panhandle ones.

these are from Kanawha County, WV—Charleston. this is outside the statehouse. it’s labeled as a tornado but i don’t think it is.

 

632E26D8-6D40-4865-A98D-6C6422A2E6B6.jpeg

CCF2FCD6-937B-4087-AB1C-03FFF898FE49.jpeg

Agreed.  Looks like a shelf cloud and some scud.  Still, cool pics!

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and now I see this--but that's not in the city of Charleston.

 

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Hmmm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  West central Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia...
  South central Page County in northwestern Virginia...
  Central Greene County in central Virginia...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles
  southeast of Massanutten, or 16 miles southeast of Harrisonburg,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Elkton, Mcmullen, Mission Home, Swift Run, Lydia, Fletcher, Graves
  Mill, Jollett, Aylor, Haneytown, Saint George and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 7870 3855 7852 3843 7827 3825 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 218DEG 23KT 3829 7862

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

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That line from the west finally arrived, pouring in B'more, lil bit of lightning, but no wind or thunder as of yet

ETA: coupla mins later lightning flash followed by low rolling thunder but nothing close to severe, will take the rain though

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