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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Re: Derecho I remember folks here were posting links to traffic cameras out to the west, and watching them and seeing unreal lightning shows.   A tree took out the powerlines next to my house, but i missed seeing it as I got a face full of dirt and dust right as it all happened, looking out a screened window.  I do like the social aspect of power outages as all the coach potatoes are forced outside. Many of us, flash light and drinks in hand.

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33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Several hours at the most other than we could see an mcs coming out of Chicago that morning . Hrrr probably did the best job.  In general, even the high res guidance have a hard time picking up on the timing and trajectory of mcs  systems.

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23 minutes ago, high risk said:

Here is the midday 6/29/12 SPC outlook.    Most of the DC area wasn't even in a SLGT at that time.

day1otlk_20120629_1630_prt.gif

and then a mod risk came out around 8pm i think. 

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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Here's the thread if you've got a few minutes:

"Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split." lol

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1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

Re: Derecho I remember folks here were posting links to traffic cameras out to the west, and watching them and seeing unreal lightning shows.   A tree took out the powerlines next to my house, but i missed seeing it as I got a face full of dirt and dust right as it all happened, looking out a screened window.  I do like the social aspect of power outages as all the coach potatoes are forced outside. Many of us, flash light and drinks in hand.

I remember hearing about people on I-70 getting caught from behind by that derecho because it was moving so fast.  That is crazy.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

and then a mod risk came out around 8pm i think. 

MOD came after the 00z RAOB for IAD showed a pronounced EML and CAPE.

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5 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm pretty meh on tomorrow - I think we'll get some storms but I'm not sure it'll be a "big" severe day by any means. 

        I really, really want to be IN on this.     Even with the potentially crappy lapse rates eating away at good instability, the wind profiles are impressive for mid June, as that's a nice trough approaching.        But it's hard not to notice the fairly limited coverage of storms so far in this evening's NAM nest and HRRR runs.   

 

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2 hours ago, high risk said:

        I really, really want to be IN on this.     Even with the potentially crappy lapse rates eating away at good instability, the wind profiles are impressive for mid June, as that's a nice trough approaching.        But it's hard not to notice the fairly limited coverage of storms so far in this evening's NAM nest and HRRR runs.   

 

Probably don't count for very much at all, but both the 00z RGEM and 00z HRDPS rock DC metro at around 00z-01z FRI

00z 3km NAM looks like it has a tiny intense storm in DC at 00z too

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3 hours ago, yoda said:

Probably don't count for very much at all, but both the 00z RGEM and 00z HRDPS rock DC metro at around 00z-01z FRI

00z 3km NAM looks like it has a tiny intense storm in DC at 00z too

I just looked expecting to see very impressive panels...and was disappointed. Those returns look okay but nothing great. 

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Last night around 9:30 pm we had a respectable thunderstorm with heavy downpour over Chestnut Ridge (northern Baltimore County).  Not severe by any stretch however I am taking what I can get during this week of "active weather" that was predicted last Saturday.  But other than last night this week has been a fail for me.  I am somewhat optimistic for today - the last day of this "pattern" until we reload next week.  So maybe today - the day folks let their guard down or give up on the game - is the day we profit!    

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84F with a dew point of 73. I'm optimistic that we'll get something. A strong front is coming through. If I get nothing out of today, you may want to check in on me tomorrow to see if I'm still sane. lol 

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6 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Last night around 9:30 pm we had a respectable thunderstorm with heavy downpour over Chestnut Ridge (northern Baltimore County).  Not severe by any stretch however I am taking what I can get during this week of "active weather" that was predicted last Saturday.  But other than last night this week has been a fail for me.  I am somewhat optimistic for today - the last day of this "pattern" until we reload next week.  So maybe today - the day folks let their guard down or give up on the game - is the day we profit!    

man, even that missed me. 

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7 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

84F with a dew point of 73. I'm optimistic that we'll get something. A strong front is coming through. If I get nothing out of today, you may want to check in on me tomorrow to see if I'm still sane. lol 

    the problem is defining the "we".     There will definitely be some storms in the area this afternoon, and at least a few of them will produce SVR reports, but coverage in the CAMs isn't awesome.   Maybe the CAMs are undoing the forcing, and coverage will end up much greater, but it right now looks like a chunk of this forum will end up disappointed.

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24 minutes ago, high risk said:

    the problem is defining the "we".     There will definitely be some storms in the area this afternoon, and at least a few of them will produce SVR reports, but coverage in the CAMs isn't awesome.   Maybe the CAMs are undoing the forcing, and coverage will end up much greater, but it right now looks like a chunk of this forum will end up disappointed.

eh, been the story all week. 

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18 hours ago, PSWired said:

Here's the thread if you've got a few minutes:

"Then the front on Friday should bring at least a DC split." lol

That...was frickin' AWESOME!!! Thanks for sharing that! Man, how unpredictable severe can be around here. But I will never forget what that looked like outside my bathroom window (was literally taking a shower when I post power, lol) The wind blowing the sheets of heavy rain down the street...felt like a 20-minute hurricane, loop (basically was!) And then the absolute tree carnage the next day...mercy! That was certainly one for the books!

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storm initiation has occurred, and an MD has been issued.   Sounds like a blue box is coming soon, although we may be at the northern end.  

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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

storm initiation has occurred, and an MD has been issued.   Sounds like a blue box is coming soon, although we may be at the northern end.  

yeah, i see the blue box being issued for Baltimore south, maybe DC south even. 

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Bunch of cells just blew up from about 70 on north in the western suburbs. Just looks like a quick shot of heavy rain though.

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3-4,000 J/kg SBCAPE and 1500 - 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE per latest meso analysis over much of the area. Just need it to be realized.

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Looking at the Dover radar some very isolated cells forming and moving NE from the central Chessy Bay. Looks to headed towards the upper Eastern Shore.   

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fast moving line came through not long ago. have a nice view of the clouds as they moved east. 

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