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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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At 4:55 PM EDT, 2 W Callaway [St. Marys Co, MD] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH). SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

interesting look just south of Glen Burnie on BWI's TDWR velocity scan... 

Yeah, that looks like a downburst.

Lots of boundaries sitting out there now.

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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, that looks like a downburst.

Lots of boundaries sitting out there now.

Fairfax county cell is sending out quite the outflow boundary right now

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Sounds like a few trees into houses in Columbia.  Likely a downburst.

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Two garbage severe days in a row, managed to miss every storm except for a lame 15 minute golden shower

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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

It's a stats thing more than anything. Areas that DO receive hail are actually very isolated. It just seems like "every other place gets hail other than X location" because you're looking at a small geographic area. This is similar to why SPC forecasts are for "severe within 25mi of a point"

I would bet that if you plotted hail reports from a statistically relevant period - the areas within the city boundaries have a similar return period than other areas.  

TL;DR - Hail in unusual in general in any area within our region. 

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Eskimo Joe likes this 

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016-501>508-VAZ052>055-501-502-505-
506-181545-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0005.190618T1800Z-190619T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Charles-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick,
Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown,
Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton,
College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie,
Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton,
St. Charles, Waldorf, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown,
Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring,
Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen,
Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston,
Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia,
Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton,
Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling
338 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and northern Virginia, including the following
  areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Central and Eastern
  Allegany, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Charles, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD,
  Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard,
  Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford,
  Southern Baltimore, and Washington. The District of Columbia.
  In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Northern Fauquier, Prince
  William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Southern Fauquier, Stafford,
  and Western Loudoun.

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to develop across
  the watch area this afternoon and linger into the evening.
  Localized rainfall totals of several inches are possible. This
  could lead to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

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13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Well I never!

Person:  The town is in ruins, all buildings are flattened, thousands are dead!

EJ: Is everyone dead?

Person: What? No, some have survived.

EJ: Meh. Next.

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  • Haha 9

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20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Well I never!

we have our rolls to play. by the third "lame" i lost it. 

  • Like 1

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

@mappy has received SLGT risk on the 1300 OTLK 

sun is trying to come out, and its muggy AF. we shall see. 

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24 minutes ago, mappy said:

sun is trying to come out, and its muggy AF. we shall see. 

Blue sky and sun here as well... guess we shall see how long this lasts

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I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

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7 minutes ago, high risk said:

I certainly agree with SPC that the better wind fields later today will be up towards the PHL area as that convective vort max moves that way.    But there is a pretty strong signal in the CAMs for more widespread storm coverage right around DC.    The wind fields down this way will be slightly weaker but may support a few SVR reports - flash flooding may become the bigger concern, with several CAMs showing potential for multiple waves of storms.

It would figure the day I’m going to the Nationals game would be the day for multiple waves of storms to happen over DC. Last night we didn’t get much rain around Fredericksburg but the light show was pretty good. How much rain we looking at, 2”+ in some areas?

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Updated morning LWX AFD:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
While some heavier activity and thunderstorms evolve over
southeastern parts of Pennsylvania near a weak boundary, much of
our region remains dry and mostly cloudy. There could be a
couple of sprinkles over western Maryland, eastern West Virginia
Panhandle, and far northern Virginia over the next two to three
hours. Temperatures are pushing 80 degrees across much of our
region with dewpoint temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
This rich surface moisture will help to feed developing showers
and strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and this
evening. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms in
central and northeast Maryland this afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large
hail and very heavy rainfall. 1500 J/kg surface based CAPE or
1000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE is concentrated over northeast
Maryland at this time. There is also about 20 to 30 knots of
wind shear over this same area. A few of the convective models
and NAM deterministic model indicate some strong to severe
thunderstorms that could develop over northeast Virginia and the
D.C. metropolitan area between 4pm and 7pm, and then some
damaging thunderstorms developing over northeast Maryland and
southern Maryland between 7pm and 10pm. Timing and location is
low to middle confidence. Nonetheless, there is a threat for
some damaging thunderstorms. A Flash Flood Watch remains in
effect for central, northeast and southern Maryland, the
metropolitan areas and eastern portions of Virginia. Rain rates
of an inch per hour is likely with the heaviest activity.

Later this evening and overnight, upper level energy will
continue crossing the region, so showers and storms could linger
for some time, perhaps most of the night, though intensity
should wane as the night progresses. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

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LWX's AFD is a bit curious...the visible satellite shows the region is socked in with mid level clouds.  Not sure how we manage to get north of ~1,000 CAPE without better sunshine.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Updated morning LWX AFD:

 

 

All seems very iffy again. Lots of clouds all morning here in newington. Still waiting on the region wide severe/flood event :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX's AFD is a bit curious...the visible satellite shows the region is socked in with mid level clouds.  Not sure how we manage to get north of ~1,000 CAPE without better sunshine.

12z KIAD RAOB has FCST SURFACE of just below 2000

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX's AFD is a bit curious...the visible satellite shows the region is socked in with mid level clouds.  Not sure how we manage to get north of ~1,000 CAPE without better sunshine.

Um, there already is 1500 SBCAPE in NE MD

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Just now, yoda said:

12z KIAD RAOB has FCST SURFACE of just below 2000

Also have a convective temp of 87° which is dubious to reach.

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Just now, yoda said:

Um, there already is 1500 SBCAPE in NE MD

That's centered over KMTN which has a high surface Td compared to the rest of the stations nearby.  KGED also does that sometimes on the eastern shore and it gives a bad impression.

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I see sun and blue sky in Adelphi. 82.2F. Dewpoint is 74. I'd imagine that's enough to get some storms going. 87 shouldn't be too hard to reach in a few hours if it stays partly cloudy. 

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