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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

someone said TOR

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       B)

Too late, you said TOR... so you just guaranteed a TOR day ;)

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20 minutes ago, high risk said:

     someone said IF THE NAM SOLUTION IS CORRECT.       B)

EF5 WEDGE ON THE MALL YOU SAY? 

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Winds are calm right now which I think is a good sign. IIRC i vaguely remember someone saying that breezy conditions before storm chances aren't good.

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Winds are calm right now which I think is a good sign. IIRC i vaguely remember someone saying that breezy conditions before storm chances aren't good.

not necessarily -- southern breezes bring in the moisture and humidity, that help leads to storms. its usually situation dependent, not an all or nothing deal. 

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

not necessarily -- southern breezes bring in the moisture and humidity, that help leads to storms. its usually situation dependent, not an all or nothing deal. 

Thanks for the info.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Flash Flood Watch being pared back.

what were they this morning? i didn't read the text. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

what were they this morning? i didn't read the text. 

They were as far south as the 1st row of counties in N VA (Fairfax/Loudoun/Clarke)

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

They were as far south as the 1st row of counties in N VA (Fairfax/Loudoun/Clarke)

ohhh. i guess i never actually looked at the coverage of the watch. oops. 

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Another dud.

i'm still under the watch, so :bike:

  • Haha 1

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe. 

We're quietly slipping into a very dry pattern since Memorial Day.  Several 'big' events beyond D3 have gone poof within 24 hrs.

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

We are pretty close to the convective temp that @Eskimo Joe indicated.

College Park is reporting a dew down to 63.5 - most stations are higher around here though. 

CU field popped in Gaithersburg.  88/62 at work.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're quietly slipping into a very dry pattern since Memorial Day.  Several 'big' events beyond D3 have gone poof within 24 hrs.

I have noticed! As I said this morning, this “threat” today and tomorrow went from exciting to meh in 24 hours. Certainly has been a change from this time last year. 

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90/69 here, CU field popping just east of me - probably the typical stalled seabreeze right along the Delaware bay's west coast

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

 

     # GFScancel

Seems to be the deb from a few days out usually. Though NAM usually goes too hardcore. Also when the FV3 and old GFS were running in parallel - I noticed on the COD website that the FV3 consistently put out lower supercell composite numbers. 

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14 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I’d rather have the heavy rain threat vs severe. 

rain or severe will cancel practice, so i'm good with either :D 

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