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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX's AFD is a bit curious...the visible satellite shows the region is socked in with mid level clouds.  Not sure how we manage to get north of ~1,000 CAPE without better sunshine.

spc mesoanalysis suggests a larger area of 1000 to 2000 already present west of the bay. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's centered over KMTN which has a high surface Td compared to the rest of the stations nearby.  KGED also does that sometimes on the eastern shore and it gives a bad impression.

Well LWX mentions it in their AFD, so they must either accept it on the SPC mesoanalysis page or have other stations to look at that support it

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Also have a convective temp of 87° which is dubious to reach.

LWX in their updated zones as of 10:37 AM has DCA reaching upper 80s for highs which would likely breach ConvT

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5 minutes ago, yoda said:

LWX in their updated zones as of 10:37 AM has DCA reaching upper 80s for highs which would likely breach ConvT

I just hope DCA can hit 90° again.

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     Even if we came up a degree or two short of the convective temp, most of the CAMs show a modest shortwave approaching later this afternoon, which (assuming it's real) will certainly get the initiation job done.     Without full surface heating, the about of instability probably won't be sufficient for widespread severe (although I won't rule out a few wet microbursts), but heavy rainers seem pretty likely with the high PWs

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This might be a dumb question, but why would reaching the convective temp be critical when the synoptic setup provides mechanism(s) for lift? We have a front, with upper level perturbations moving through. Seems reaching the convective temp would be much more important when there is little to no forcing available, as with typical summer air mass storms.

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6 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Even if we came up a degree or two short of the convective temp, most of the CAMs show a modest shortwave approaching later this afternoon, which (assuming it's real) will certainly get the initiation job done.     Without full surface heating, the about of instability probably won't be sufficient for widespread severe (although I won't rule out a few wet microbursts), but heavy rainers seem pretty likely with the high PWs

I'm already up to 84.7F THe sun disappeared on me. But I would think that would be just fine for today's threat. 

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29 minutes ago, mappy said:

latest mesoanalysis shows a 3000 CAPE contour around DC

And another 3000 bubble just north of your yard along with the best lift atm 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

And another 3000 bubble just north of your yard along with the best lift atm 

I see that! here's hoping things work out in my favor later. 

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I poo poo'd yesterday and got some rain.  I'm doing it again due to clouds despite it being muggy af out there.

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^i'm in Maine that day...bank on a big event.  Even possible legit MOD risk day.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I find this suspect. Not sure how we'll get even 1/3 of that CAPE.

The high SB CAPE on the SPC meso page is probably being shown due to a few stations with anomalously high Td, namely KMTN (Martin St Airport),  KNHK (NAS Patuxent) and KNAK (Naval Academy).  Their proximity to the water may be representative of the local conditions near the observation site but it's similar to how DCA can torch if the winds flip to the SW or back to the SE off the water.  The ML CAPE values are more realistic, and even then might be a ~100 j/kg too high because they are incorporating the above stations.

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LWX expanded the FFW

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019


MDZ017-018-VAZ036>040-050-051-056-057-507-508-190200-
/O.EXA.KLWX.FF.A.0005.190618T1800Z-190619T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
St. Marys-Calvert-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-
Orange-Culpeper-Spotsylvania-King George-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Lexington Park, California,
Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby,
Prince Frederick, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville,
Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper,
Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen
152 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded
the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of southern Maryland and
  Virginia, including the following areas, in southern Maryland,
  Calvert and St. Marys. In Virginia, Albemarle, Central
  Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Greene, King George, Madison,
  Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Rappahannock,
  and Spotsylvania.

* Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to develop across
  the watch area this afternoon and linger into the evening.
  Localized rainfall totals of several inches are possible. This
  could lead to flash flooding, especially in the urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

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did you find each other on a subreddit? i feel like thats hard to do with the amount of users, depending on subreddit

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should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?)  for the most coverage.    Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.

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7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Radar is so boring right now. I hope Thursday goes bonkers. 

If you read the AFD... you would see they said 4pm to 7pm for development 

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?)  for the most coverage.    Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.

so like yesterday -- everything initiates to my southeast and i get nary a drop to drink. 

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