• Member Statistics

    15,570
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    bx1000
    Newest Member
    bx1000
    Joined
Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

From where? Nothing remotely close :huh:

Storms forming just east of Baltimore right now as an update. For now it looks like only across the bay seems to be getting the action unless the line near pittsburgh holds together which i doubt it will.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the 0100 OTLK from SPC:

Farther east, the IAD 00Z sounding shows a semi-favorable wind
   profile for severe cellular storms capable of mainly hail, with
   effective SRH around 150 m2/s2. A small time window exists in this
   area for a few severe storms, but the threat will also decrease
   through the evening here. If storms over WV can sustain into this
   area, a few strong wind gusts will be possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’d feel better about storm chances the next couple days if the front was closer

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Mid 70s low at DCA.  71/68 here.  Looks like the NAM came around to the HRRR’s idea of more scattered cells rather than something more organized.

It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

It seemed 24 hrs ago it could have been a big day today, now the overall setup seems meh 

Yup, another bust.  Was hoping this season would be good but we've struck out again.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

Seasons over?!

We're getting into low shear pulse season...was hoping we'd have a nice regionwide event by now.  Maybe we can get some home brew tropical this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're getting into low shear pulse season...was hoping we'd have a nice regionwide event by now.  Maybe we can get some home brew tropical this year.

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i have my first softball practice in seven years tonight, and honestly i'm a bit nervous about it. so it could rain. i'd be okay with that. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

June can still be friendly to us - if we can get some decent cells to fire today it could be okay for some area. But yeah - region-wide event today looks unlikely. 

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

i have my first softball practice in seven years tonight, and honestly i'm a bit nervous about it. so it could rain. i'd be okay with that. 

Hunt Valley fields?  Always wanted to get back into softball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It absolutely can, but as you and @high risk have documented here, you need a good pulse of energy to kick things off otherwise it's usually confined to the ridge tops.

Pattern does seem to look good for multiple days of storms at least within the general area as a whole (not speaking specifically about severe). I don't see any elevated odds for anything like a derecho or big outbreak. CIPS does seem supportive of a severe threat for the next 4-5 days or so, though. 

Give me a nice cluster of storms forming a cold pool. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hunt Valley fields?  Always wanted to get back into softball.

PM me if interested, the team could use another guy and girl! its rec league stuff up my way. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRDPS goes pretty bonkers for this afternoon/evening

The meso guidance this AM has been hinting at one or two beefy cells south of the Potomac with the typical popcorn around them.  We're in Maine for a wedding starting Thursday through the 27th so you can bank on something happening while I'm away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest NAM nest rolling in doesn't look half bad on the satellite view. 

NAMNSTMA_prec_irsat_009.png

HRRR also looks to fire up nicely mid afternoon.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning update from LWX AFD:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1034 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Made some minor tweaks to the POPs and weather with the morning
update. There will be an opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms areawide this afternoon, but focused in on higher
POPs along and east of the Blue Ridge. This is in line with
most of the CAM guidance, and conceptually makes sense given
westerly downslope flow, which could limit storm coverage a bit
immediately in the lee of the Appalachians. Think that storms
will initiate around 2 PM give or take an hour and press toward
the I-95 corridor through the mid-late afternoon. Multiple
rounds of storms are possible, and storms could linger into the
evening hours, especially south and east of I-95. This morning`s
IAD sounding shows a predominantly straight-line hodograph,
with around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. However, there is a bit of a
weakness in the wind field above 6 km. MLCAPE is expected to
increase to 1000-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon. Given this
parameter space, the convective mode will favor multicell
clusters, along with some marginal supercell structures.
Splitting of the supercells will be possible given the straight
line hodograph. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with
these storms, but a few instances of larger hail can`t be ruled
out with the strongest storms. Flash flooding can`t be ruled
out either, with a slow moving boundary approaching the area,
and winds aloft paralleling the boundary.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Seeing patches of brown in my lawn. It's getting serious. Time for some soaking rains. Hope this stretch of 4 days of rain does the trick if my lawn is to survive the rest of the summer. 

Hail and wind I can do without though. :-)

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

Also looks decent for this afternoon around 21z-23z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12km NAM for Thursday (at range) looks pretty robust. Bears watching as SPC has been hinting about the timeframe. 

            Yeah, while I do think we'll have some SVR today, the 12z NAM for Thursday would be a TOR day if its solution is correct.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.