• Member Statistics

    15,535
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ransom
    Newest Member
    ransom
    Joined
Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The only thing I've noticed that is consistent on most of the models is that it doesn't seem to be a high CAPE environment at all. Highest sounding SBCAPE I've seen is sub 1000 J/KG

       good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, high risk said:

       good point, although the NAM nest seems to be a fair amount higher, although it has much higher low-level dew points than the other guidance.

Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look" 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mappy said:

hot muggy nights are great for night swims in the pool. 

In the dark so the neighbors cant see you :ph34r:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

In the dark so the neighbors cant see you :ph34r:

thats the only way to night swim. need a cloudy-ish night, none of that full moon stuff (already enough of that as it is)

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Does seem that it can overdo those dews at times. I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon before I go out entirely...just doesn't have "the look" 

FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question

Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, yoda said:

FWIW, LWX afternoon AFD mentioned the threat and said the shear is there and the shear profiles suggest severe storms, but instability is on question

Maybe it will be one of those high shear low CAPE days?

Those tend to result in pencil thing lines of gusty showers around here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/2/2019 at 6:51 PM, Bodhi Cove said:

JFC. What the hell just hit South eastern Baltimore county?

I was in this at 95 and Balt Beltway, Very soft splatting hail, unreal sheets of rain with 50 mph gusts for about 15 minutes. Lots of cars pulled over,  20-25 mph top speed driving.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, mappy said:

hot muggy nights are great for night swims in the pool. 

In the chessie bay is better.  the minnows like to nibble

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, yoda said:

Back in the SLGT risk for tomorrow, Wednesday 

              I think I'm IN.     While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk.     If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, high risk said:

              I think I'm IN.     While the details among the CAMs so far this morning are not in agreement, they all have good storms somewhere close to the DC-Baltimore area with a combination of instability and shear that isn't amazing but will certainly justify a SLGT risk.     If we could combine the NAM nest instability with the strong HRRR wind fields, we'd likely be looking at an ENH.

Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Go big or go home boys. Let's bring it home. 

      Boom!     Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields.      Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing.     I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Boom!     Actually, one interesting aspect of the NAM nest forecast is that it pops a sfc low later Wednesday night over the eastern shore, and whatever shortwave is causing that leads to a huge response in the low level wind fields.      Instability is iffy, but the hodographs over eastern ME and DE look amazing.     I have big doubts about whether this feature is legit, but there would be a threat of late night TORs east of here if it verified.

Bring it west and drop a wedge in the woods near my parent's house ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kmlwx said:

With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail. 

sounds awesome. count me in. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

With embedded wedges every 1-2 miles along the line and minivan sized hail. 

Darn, I wanted hail the size of oreos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Kmlwx said:

Planet sized hail. 

lol

There was an actual report of hail to the size of oreos to NWS... thats where that post came from.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i would say that going from dry weather to warm/humid/storms in one day is a stretch, but this area is fully capable of it.  we do humidity extremely well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We will not have the benefit of good shear for this event, but keep in mind that one of Virginia's best tornado events occurred in August 1993 and was not a tropical induced event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can I have my vote back?     Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, high risk said:

Can I have my vote back?     Trends in the guidance have been towards a less interesting event tomorrow - looks like a few isolated cells during the late afternoon (with still some SVR potential) and then perhaps more widespread non-severe storms after dark.

I was about to say neither one of the NAMs nor the HRRR on their 00z runs looked particularly interesting at all tomorrow afternoon... hopefully it will change for the better tomorrow morning lol

Wouldnt mind some night time storms though to be honest 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is like showing up to the starting line for a race but it was cancelled and you didn't get told.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not.    The hi-res windows show both ideas.     It seems to come down to heating:   the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives.    The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s.     Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, high risk said:

HRRR shows storms for a lot of us later today, while the NAM nest does not.    The hi-res windows show both ideas.     It seems to come down to heating:   the HRRR (and other models with aggressive solutions for our area) take us to the upper 80s before the forcing arrives.    The NAM nest keeps us in the lower 80s.     Right now, it seems too cloudy to make it up over 85....

agreed.  bit too cloudy at the moment.  there seem to be some breaks in the clouds to the west, but kinda locked in for now.  hopefully, early to mid afternoon we can get some prolonged breaks, so we're not just dealing with showers moving through later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.