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Midweek event, Yah or Nah? February 27-28th Clipper

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5 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Man...I'm right on the edge of the goods in the Berks...too bad I'm up in Leominster all week...maybe a solid 3-6" regionwide event, lollies in the berks to 6+?

Yeah I mean, never turn down a widespread 0.3-0.5" QPF snow event.  That will have some body to it.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Given H7 RH, I wouldn’t be a QPF queen in the rt2 to SNH area. 

I really hope I don't have our 1st snow day... Thursday is my final day of my ski club. If we lose it, we have to do it next week... plus it would push me to June 14...One more and it is into the next week

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I really hope I don't have our 1st snow day... Thursday is my final day of my ski club. If we lose it, we have to do it next week... plus it would push me to June 14...One more and it is into the next week

You want snow....you take it when you can get it...That's It!!  Enjoy whatever comes.  Maybe just a nice delay???  We only have one snow day here so far.  

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

NAM better for SNE VS 12z. 2-4 inches for most.

Colder and further south

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Colder and further south

The way the precipitation just evaporated on that 12z run seemed a bit odd.

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50 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You want snow....you take it when you can get it...That's It!!  Enjoy whatever comes.  Maybe just a nice delay???  We only have one snow day here so far.  

That would be ideal

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11 minutes ago, DFRI said:

2-28-19 snow map.jpg

Looks like the nammy. Dangerous to trust its synoptics this far out. Still plenty of time to up numbers though.

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Bufkit soundings look pretty horrific down this way and I'm not a big fan of a NW llvl flow. Tons of dry air within the SGZ...not a whole lot of showing of RH with respect to ice > 100% and RH is generally under 90%...not good. Should be some subsidence sucking somewhere. 

1448818695_022719CTsnowmap.png.63b4a4bde05dce4ac90e0a19e1e198f2.png

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3 hours ago, Hoth said:

SCT for the loss again.

The way this winter has gone...I fully expect the bulk of this to miss to the north...and that weak ass Friday system will slide to our south. 

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50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why?  Because of 0.06" of QPF difference?  :lol: 

Exactly. Not like there is a rain/mix line with this one that's cutting off at the river.

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57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Why?  Because of 0.06" of QPF difference?  :lol: 

His avatar isn’t Eeor for nothing lol...holy crap what a Debbie that guy is. 

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Last time I checked the forum before work peeps were thinking 2-4, 3-6 for CT. Should have known with this winter it would turn to trash. Guess I’ll be happy with my T-1. My god. what in the actual hell?

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Last time I checked the forum before work peeps were thinking 2-4, 3-6 for CT. Should have known with this winter it would turn to trash. Guess I’ll be happy with my T-1. My god. what in the actual hell?

Wut? Lol Ryan has 2 to 4 statewide

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Last time I checked the forum before work peeps were thinking 2-4, 3-6 for CT. Should have known with this winter it would turn to trash. Guess I’ll be happy with my T-1. My god. what in the actual hell?

Ryan was just on and feels 2-4 statewide is a good call right now.  

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Bufkit soundings look pretty horrific down this way and I'm not a big fan of a NW llvl flow. Tons of dry air within the SGZ...not a whole lot of showing of RH with respect to ice > 100% and RH is generally under 90%...not good. Should be some subsidence sucking somewhere. 

1448818695_022719CTsnowmap.png.63b4a4bde05dce4ac90e0a19e1e198f2.png

Take em up 

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Why is Wiz looking for RH's w/ respect to ice of over 100%?

 

edit....n/m. I misinterpreted what he was getting at. I was thinking he was looking for RH above 100% in order for it to be saturated with respect to ice when in reality it'd be much lower than 90%.

 

Anyway, I think you're worrying too much here Paul. You're starting off with plenty of saturation in the column up to H55 on the NAM. It's a decently deep DGZ aloft as well.

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12z EURO Kuchera snowfall map adding in the modeled SLR shows Cape Cod getting 7-10" wednesday night/Thursday with a grand total of 30"+ in the next 10 days.  GFS/EURO/CMC which one should we believe.

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After looking at the 12Z/18Z suite, i feel 2-4 is a good bet for the majority of the state, with 1-2 in far SW CT. Somewhere in N CT may pop some 5" amounts. 

This is a low end adv event for most, but could see a solid 3-6 stripe along i-90ish area. 

Upton & Box both taking numbers up for the PM shift. 

229587709_StormTotalSnowWeb1(1).thumb.png.7dfbc109438b673983f69d7910b695bb.png

StormTotalSnowWeb1.thumb.png.02274006b14a99700d799ce15a1875b0.png

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Still robust solution on 18z euro. Not quite as good as 12z for the qpf queens but the look is the same. 

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