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stormtracker

February 19-20th Threat - STORM MODE

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Pd2 was an initial thump as well. If we only get that, then 6” is still within reach, which is what we basically got during the first few hours of that storm.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro snow map? Whole region?

Gimme 2 minutes...Like you I don't need to see a snow map centered on New Jersey

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I feel like CAD systems tend to over perform more often than not.  I can recall a few storms in recent years where the cold air hangs on much longer than expected.  Wasn’t it only 3-4 years ago when the Shenendoah Valley got a surprise 20” from a storm with a similar setup?

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

Gimme 2 minutes...Like you I don't need to see a snow map centered on New Jersey

 

download (1).png

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Interesting how the WSW is still cutoff sharply at the M-D.  Based on the consensus being dialed in across the models and runs, expected NWS to expand it further N by now, if not at the initial posting.  Maybe the next update later this afternoon will see a northward expansion.  

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Regarding the two camps (NAM/EURO and GFS/ICON, I'm still paying attention to the globals and how they are handling the SE ridge. The NAM has the moisture feed from the gulf going around a strong SE ridge into TX and OK and then heading towards our area (why it's projecting in MD/PA). The GFS on the other hand has a much quicker turn towards our area (thus a direct DC hit), mainly because it sees the SE ridge relaxing somewhat. I'm leaning more towards the GFS right now in terms of placement of heaviest precipitation (PA versus DC).

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2 minutes ago, RDM said:

Interesting how the WSW is still cutoff sharply at the M-D.  Based on the consensus being dialed in across the models and runs, expected NWS to expand it further N by now, if not at the initial posting.  Maybe the next update later this afternoon will see a northward expansion.  

Watches/Warnings come from the individual weather offices. LWX went with a watch -- State College had advisories this morning, but i guess that was for the overnight stuff. I see they have nothing now. 

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New to the forum and really enjoying the discussion.  I think this storm might surprise some forecasters relative to the CAD potential.  Since the precipitation is going to be moderate to heavy for at least 6 hours for most of the Baltimore/Metro area, if it can stay all snow through Wednesday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 6-8" of accumulation and as much as 10" close the PA line.  Everything would have to come together but I don't think it's out of the question at this point.  I would imagine most mets are taking the conservative approach right now. 

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12z GFS - We're flirting with mix at 1 pm, but still look pretty good at 4 pm, depending on 900mb-950mb...I guess rates will matter as usual...

 

DCA

1 pm

T1DgPUV.png

 

4 pm

e9lRan8.png

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

12z GFS - We're flirting with mix at 1 pm, but still look pretty good at 4 pm, depending on 900mb-950mb...I guess rates will matter as usual...

 

DCA

1 pm

 

 

4 pm

 

Thanks for posting. I could see the afternoon fluctuate between all snow, all sleet, and a mix depending on rates. Will truly be a nowcast thing on Wednesday to see where the heaviest bands set up (wild guess...leesburg to FDK etc). 

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Just now, Rhode Islander in Balto said:

Any idea on start time for BWI?  My husband is flying in from Florida and arrives just before midnight on Wednesday.

I believe that gets him in ahead of start time up this way.

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2 minutes ago, Rhode Islander in Balto said:

Any idea on start time for BWI?  My husband is flying in from Florida and arrives just before midnight on Wednesday.

That’s fine. Start time isn’t until 5-6 am. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is by far the most aggressive in pushing the upper level warmth north.

A025DA13-84CE-40AE-B4A6-ACB89CDBA8B9.thumb.png.42c4e3a401959d26257d69e9b462bd07.png

If the Euro is right there wouldn’t be much snow but sleet and plenty of freezing rain. Let’s hope it’s wrong. 

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

The Euro is by far the most aggressive in pushing the upper level warmth north.

A025DA13-84CE-40AE-B4A6-ACB89CDBA8B9.thumb.png.42c4e3a401959d26257d69e9b462bd07.png

Personally, based on a blend of the models, the Euro could have some credence, but I'm definitely hedging more a mix, putting N/W of 95 solidly in 3-6/4-6" snow from the thump. Now when it comes to sleet vs zr, there could be more zr as the Euro shows but the snow I'm feeling a blend of things. The ICON and FV3 have been pretty consistent run to run, especially ICON. 

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8 minutes ago, Rhode Islander in Balto said:

Any idea on start time for BWI?  My husband is flying in from Florida and arrives just before midnight on Wednesday.

 

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

That’s fine. Start time isn’t until 5-6 am. 

Not necessarily.  Flight might get in in plenty of time before the storm, but if the plane is to sit there overnight (and that late of a flight it likely will be) airlines may not want to risk having the plane stuck there the next morning, *especially* if it's Southwest.

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Just now, smokeybandit said:

 

Not necessarily.  Flight might get in on time, but if the plane is to sit there overnight (and that late of a flight it likely will be) airlines may not want to risk having the plane stuck there the next morning, *especially* if it's Southwest.

You are probably correct. Southwest is notorious for that. 

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Love the icier look on the guidance.  Hope we jackpot ZR...its so fascinating to track and it's very rare in these parts.

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snow maps don't really matter much in this setup.... look at precip totals and know that your area probably flips from all snow to sleet to rain during the event. 

plus... ukie. :rolleyes:

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