Bazooka Joe

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as soon as I saw the radar this morning. Not much once the initial burst of snow goes through. By the time the 2nd wave of heavy precipitation moves through later, it will probably be liquid by then so everyone enjoy what you can get in the next few hours.

I'm kind of surprised after looking at the radar. The snow cuts off pretty quickly south of Richmond so the event this morning doesn't look long lived. Most mets miscalculated badly on the onset time of the snow, obviously underestimating how strong the dry air was in place. There's a line of heavy rain west and south of the Mid-Atlantic so as that swings northeast, I would imagine that will be periods of heavy rain this afternoon into the evening hours. In any rate, I don't see how we're going to get more than 3" in my area. If you happen to be lucky enough to get under one of those heavier snow cells, it will come down fast and furious but the coverage of those rates isn't all that impressive. What would be perfect for me is for a few inches to cover the ground and then go to a lighter sleet then no precipitation until the heavier stuff arrives later today. At least that would minimize excessive rainfall.

I'm just east of the I-95 corridor but you could be right about where you are. We could basically have a repeat of a couple of Monday's ago where I only got 3" but just north and west of here got almost 8".

I would think almost all of that is snowfall. Sleet isn't going to accumulate much, even if heavy. And I doubt it's going to sleet all that long anyway...maybe a couple of hours tops before we get the change over to rain. I think the snow will come down fast and furious for about 6 hours, we get our 4-6" and then it's pretty much over. If only we would have had a different track to the south and then northeast...this could have been a legitimate mega snow storm. Oh well, maybe early March.

The 12z GFS/FV3 has the snow arriving earlier and lasting longer than the other models, not changing over to sleet or freezing rain until around 3:00 p.m. The EURO is the fastest to bring in the warmer air aloft. If the GFS ultimately is the winner, the Baltimore/Metro could easily see 6-8" of snow.

New to the forum and really enjoying the discussion. I think this storm might surprise some forecasters relative to the CAD potential. Since the precipitation is going to be moderate to heavy for at least 6 hours for most of the Baltimore/Metro area, if it can stay all snow through Wednesday afternoon, I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread 6-8" of accumulation and as much as 10" close the PA line. Everything would have to come together but I don't think it's out of the question at this point. I would imagine most mets are taking the conservative approach right now.