Hyphnx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, snjókoma said: No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+ RIC looks to be mostly sleet, again. Hoping they catch the CAD and temps will be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I have to think that the precipitation will be a little more smoothed out though. Odd that the heavy precipitation can’t make it a little more N.E. of DC...I doubt DC gets nearly 3-4 more inches of snow than BWI Could. Happened in the January storm. It's unusual but not unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I think we will see a compromise between the Euro and gfs. Euro is the fastest at flipping over. Slow that down by a few hours and you would have more of the 3- 6 / 4 -8 " totals across the corridor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, snjókoma said: No scale but the pretty purples and pinks = 6"+ I’ve been hugging the GFS for a few days now. Hasn’t really moved, puts MBY in a great spot. All of DC, nova, and eastern half of md cash in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 looks much better than the main GFS for Maryland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: I’ve been hugging the GFS for a few days now. Hasn’t really moved, puts MBY in a great spot. All of DC, nova, and eastern half of md cash in. It looks acceptable for a warning level event. The squeeze play between the cold dry air and solid moisture plume has to collide somewhere. In this run it’s DC west and SW. enjoy it for now. Too much of one or the other..and you get the FV3. Or the Euro. My money is on MD being the jackpot but we get an acceptable outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Fozz said: FV3 looks much better than the main GFS for Maryland. You're not kidding... wow... and this is Kuchera! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 FV3 takes that axis of heavy snow and shifts NE to cover dc and bmore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I’m telling you this is unfolding. Significant storm and evolving. I have to agree. This is a dynamic weather event that is about to unfold. The final solution could be much more interesting than we see on the models right now. Definitely fun to track that’s for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I wish the fv3 had a depth map option. That's why it's "so inaccurate"! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I have to agree. This is a dynamic weather event that is about to unfold. The final solution could be much more interesting than we see on the models right now. Definitely fun to track that’s for sure. That FV3 snow map doesn’t concern me for PWC. I don’t think the snowmaps mean much other than entertainment. There is snow to the right nod left of us. Now if there was 0 in all directions but north well I would be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: I don't trust that depth map. It looks way too high and too smoothed out. Kuchera ratios are probably the most reliable choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, Fozz said: I don't trust that depth map. It looks way too high and too smoothed out. Kuchera ratios are probably the most reliable choice. I don't either... now that i look at it. I kind of posted it knee-jerk replying to BTRWx, but it is a little insane. If you go back to 54h, it actually shows over a foot on the ground in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: That FV3 snow map doesn’t concern me for PWC. I don’t think the snowmaps mean much other than entertainment. There is snow to the right nod left of us. Now if there was 0 in all directions but north well I would be concerned. Completely agree, depends on where bands set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Then why is it the same as ttb? That can't be right since ttb includes ice in their 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2019 Author Share Posted February 18, 2019 I'm telling you guys that the FV3 has a documented cold bias at the surface. But even if you cut that map by 40% it's decent. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 18z icon shifted the heaviest axis of snow just north of dc into MD with the thump. Such a nowcast event where that will set up Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: 18z icon shifted the heaviest axis of snow just north of dc into MD with the thump. Such a nowcast event where that will set up Wednesday morning. Right. I don’t think models can predict exactly where those bands will be 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: Right. I don’t think models can predict exactly where those bands will be 48 hours out. My thoughts are it will come in like a wall for everyone. It will enhance in the normal zones from Winchester/Leesburg/moco. After that, us closer to dc, will flip probably an hour or two earlier than progged on any model. Living here as long as I have it’s always the case. I think 2-4 is good for us but someone could see 8” in that enhanced area I mentioned and up into northern md where they will hold snow longer. My .02. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Don't know where the 18z RGEM is but the 18z HRDPS has me... um... interested to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I will take my 18 inches and like it! In all seriousness. This is a 6-8 storm max for our area. We will all flip at some point. I am really concerned about the sleet that is showing on the models for my area. .5 or .6 of sleet on top of 5 inches of snow is no joke. Major sleet bomb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 The overall trends are great. There is a watch posted and the language being used by lwx is more bullish than I have seen for any storm (minus the bust for nova last march) since I have lived here (3 years). Not to squash the live and die by the different model guys but the 18z Icon hasn't been right... ever, and the Ukie and the euro had significant amounts of snow imby this past weekend and I never saw a flake. We are getting a winter storm! and the Icon and the Ukie still suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: I’m telling you this is unfolding. Significant storm and evolving. I saw went out on a limb earlier. you're right most mets are basically now casting these things now. It is a shame. Years of schooling.. years of watching these things unfold and they basically just color a map that blends the leading guidance the day before the storm. I mean Christ.. even Marty Bass will give his opinion... and he isnt even a anything.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Hrpderps looks really thumpy! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Hrpderps looks really thumpy! It's an all time weenie run. I posted this in banter but it shows 4" an hour for CHO at the heart of the thump. And then it's sleet central. HDRPS isn't the worst model out there. Did well on the December storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's an all time weenie run. I posted this in banter but it shows 4" an hour for CHO at the heart of the thump. And then it's sleet central. HDRPS isn't the worst model out there. Did well on the December storm. FV3 did well on that storm, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's an all time weenie run. I posted this in banter but it shows 4" an hour for CHO at the heart of the thump. And then it's sleet central. HDRPS isn't the worst model out there. Did well on the December storm. Don’t think I have seen 4 inch per hour but I am willing to see it. But extreme moisture running into dry cold air seems like recipe for a nuclear snow bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 I'm telling you guys that the FV3 has a documented cold bias at the surface. But even if you cut that map by 40% it's decent.Surface don't matter for this storm. All models at 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 That surface map almost looks like some kind of glitch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 18, 2019 Share Posted February 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: FV3 did well on that storm, if I recall correctly. Yeah, it actually did. If I was to wager though it was more because of it's overamped bias, took the storm more north than other models did. Not qualified to say though. 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Don’t think I have seen 4 inch per hour but I am willing to see it. But extreme moisture running into dry cold air seems like recipe for a nuclear snow bomb Sorry, you only get 2" rates. Sucks to be on the north side of the max band /s Just now, losetoa6 said: It's a real nice hit verbatim with big rates it appears HDRPS snow output, like the CMC, is genuinely all snow. None of this is sleet/ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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