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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I could see this trending toward a more significant snowstorm. 

Why Chuck?  Bigger thump?  850s hold longer?  East track?  Dogs and cats living together causing chaos?  

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26 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Little off topic for this upcoming system .. been seeing alittle bit of lightining down here near Afton Mt... first lightining/thunder of the year !

Interesting. Didn’t hear/see it in Crozet. 

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4 minutes ago, SilentTalkie said:

Interesting. Didn’t hear/see it in Crozet. 

It wasnt alot... I'm on the other side not far from route 340.... There was thunder and lightining on 29 south of Covesville earlier... And some people posting on DTs page from Lynchburg about thunder... Energetic atmosphere this evening....

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The snow depth on the 18z euro seems best in line with the qpf that falls when it’s snow looking at the 1 hour precip type and temps. DC flips to ice between 12-1pm.  Northeast of Baltimore holds on another 2 hours or so.  

This looks in line with the qpf that falls as snow  

E21E55A9-6DE6-4586-806F-05C93BA4C576.thumb.png.86eb4fb28f953f494a47194a19727146.png

 

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The snow depth on the 18z euro seems best in line with the qpf that falls when it’s snow looking at the 1 hour precip type and temps. DC flips to ice between 12-1pm.  Northeast of Baltimore holds on another 2 hours or so.  
This looks in line with the qpf that falls as snow  
E21E55A9-6DE6-4586-806F-05C93BA4C576.thumb.png.86eb4fb28f953f494a47194a19727146.png
 
I'll take that and call it a winter...


I may have no choice
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Agreed PSU. We have been through these plenty of times to know that this is most likely a 5-8 event for those of us NW. It is just how we do these. The temps before onset arent the best we have seen with this type of setup before. But they arent horrible either. And the HP is in perfect position for us as well. 

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You can't go off 850s with this setup, the warming is above 850 in the 700-800mb zone. Best bet is to go off 546 thickness. Once that passes you best to look for a warm nose poking in in that zone. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow depth on the 18z euro seems best in line with the qpf that falls when it’s snow looking at the 1 hour precip type and temps. DC flips to ice between 12-1pm.  Northeast of Baltimore holds on another 2 hours or so.  

This looks in line with the qpf that falls as snow  

E21E55A9-6DE6-4586-806F-05C93BA4C576.thumb.png.86eb4fb28f953f494a47194a19727146.png

 

Any possible way you have a map that shows southern VA from the 18z Euro Snow Depth?

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow depth on the 18z euro seems best in line with the qpf that falls when it’s snow looking at the 1 hour precip type and temps. DC flips to ice between 12-1pm.  Northeast of Baltimore holds on another 2 hours or so.  

This looks in line with the qpf that falls as snow  

E21E55A9-6DE6-4586-806F-05C93BA4C576.thumb.png.86eb4fb28f953f494a47194a19727146.png

 

Living very close to the bay, it really annoys me the way it "zeros" over the bay and inland a bit. I get what it's doing - obviously snow isn't going to accumulate on the water, but it isn't precise with water boundaries so folks along the shore kind of have to just estimate their output. I kind of wish it just ignored the bay.

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:

I'll take that and call it a winter...


I may have no choice

That would still leave me about 12” short of mean and 5” short of my median so I want one more warning event in March then I’ll call it a winter. 

That look early Match btw has some potential. It’s not going to look exactly like the day 10-15 says.  If it drops that trough just a little more it’s a good pattern. If it goes the wrong way it’s winter over lol.  But we could have a shot at a March event in that general look. I could even see a major phased storm with that PV hanging out displaced to our north if something rotated around it and pulls it in. 

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17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Agreed PSU. We have been through these plenty of times to know that this is most likely a 5-8 event for those of us NW. It is just how we do these. The temps before onset arent the best we have seen with this type of setup before. But they arent horrible either. And the HP is in perfect position for us as well. 

How were temps before the December 2013 event. This has some similarities to that imo. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That would still leave me about 12” short of mean and 5” short of my median so I want one more warning event in March then I’ll call it a winter. 

That look early Match btw has some potential. It’s not going to look exactly like the day 10-15 says.  If it drops that trough just a little more it’s a good pattern. If it goes the wrong way it’s winter over lol.  But we could have a shot at a March event in that general look. I could even see a major phased storm with that PV hanging out displaced to our north if something rotated around it and pulls it in. 

we waited for ever for SOI to tank and MJO 8 1 2...this better not be it man.....if we suck in these phases...whats going to...never mind

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You can't go off 850s with this setup, the warming is above 850 in the 700-800mb zone. Best bet is to go off 546 thickness. Once that passes you best to look for a warm nose poking in in that zone. 

I didn’t. 850s hang on a couple hours longer than the flip times I gave. It looks like a flip to sleet before snow is likely given the depth of the low level cold. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How were temps before the December 2013 event. This has some similarities to that imo. 

Yeah I'm kinda looking at this as somewhere in between December 2013 and Vday 2014.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we waited for ever for SOI to tank and MJO 8 1 2...this better not be it man.....if we suck in these phases...whats going to...never mind

We need a moderate to strong Modoki nino. In hindsight I should have differentiated more. Live and learn. But looking at it now...the weak modoki (1959, 1969, 1978, 1995, 2005, 2015) are a mix of bad, ok, and good but all the blockbusters were in the moderate to strong camp (1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010). Not a bad one in the group!  

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I'm kinda looking at this as somewhere in between December 2013 and Vday 2014.

V-day was a very different progression. Much stronger more dynamic system and the slp took a good track but there was too much ridging (one similarity) and mid level warmth. Places in the interior northeast got 30”+ from that storm. 

The 2013 storm was a similar setup.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We need a moderate to strong Modoki nino. In hindsight I should have differentiated more. Live and learn. But looking at it now...the weak modoki (1959, 1969, 1978, 1995, 2005, 2015) are a mix of bad, ok, and good but all the blockbusters were in the moderate to strong camp (1958, 1964, 1966, 1987, 2003, 2010). Not a bad one in the group!  

yep.....i would rather a strong Nino(2016) than a weak one. Weak Ninos seem mediocre. i heard 97-98 had a lot of close blockbuster misses

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How were temps before the December 2013 event. This has some similarities to that imo. 

Temps were pretty cold at the onset in December 2013. Mid-upper 20s from what I recall. Big overperformer too. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How were temps before the December 2013 event. This has some similarities to that imo. 

It was colder. We were well below freezing at onset. But that was a juicy system as well. That storm is about as good as we can do here with a cutter. Solid foot everywhere out here.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Vday 

A91ACBE5-61AF-4493-9B3B-7F746AC758F9.gif.5f2d6d78645cd04911b8c1db23449ad5.gifF34E98B0-AC16-46F6-BBBC-DE19FCDA8924.gif.8b438712b291128ea9c0092ffcf21372.gif2191BCFD-9019-450D-A645-8EA7C59056BE.gif.583520a026e171068885ed793858eb09.gif

i remember the GFS(before they broke it and it stopped giving us snow) was showing 20 inch plus amounts for run after the run but the euro was showing mostly rain...then it started to pick up on CAD. The GFS runs were pretty east though

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Vday 

If that low had transferred just a little sooner, it would've been a major snowstorm for all of us. Like 12-18".

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38 minutes ago, Ji said:

I'll take that and call it a winter...


I may have no choice

We get snowstorms in March every year....sometimes, late March

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How were temps before the December 2013 event. This has some similarities to that imo. 

Looking back at my records, it was  69° on 12/5 and 59 on 12/6 with a couple of inches of rain.  By the 7th the high was 39 and the next day finished with a max-min of 29/24 during the heavy snowfall.  So about the same leading in as this Tuesday's forecast, but a few degrees colder for the event than this one is progged.

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