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Danajames

February 19-21, 2019 storm threat

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, that CAD on the NAM is vicious and actually keeps getting better.   We trade one thing for the other I guess.

Yep...like a game of jenga or something! We now have more CAD but now the se ridge is flexing...Whereas a few days ago we had less cold air...but a flatter se ridge. Snow life in the MA! This is one of those setups where...if ya see something 3-4 days out that has even a chance of crashing the party...assume it will but hope for the best, lol I won't be too high on this until we see even a slightly weaker ser modeled. I can picture thump trending wester and wester in the coming runs...or staying within the goalposts here (hopefully).

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Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition.

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition.

Is this similar to say the 12z gem solution? Surface not necessarily what we want but it does pop the LPC on the delmarva. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

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22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Something else to make mention before I step away for the rest of the afternoon. Take a look at hours 75-84. Notice the tight compaction of isobar's over the Delmarva. That is the position of the thermal gradient between the warm air from southerly flow and the easterly winds along the base of the surface high to the north. That kind of baroclinic ribbon could pop a weak area of low pressure, which is exactly what the NAM does towards the end of the run. It's pretty late, but any development of that low will allow for winds to diminish greatly on the western flank of the ridge, locking in the cold air for the event entirety. Despite very little precip for the end of the run, temps and dew points will be running pretty close with light precip and mist likely for several hours after the storm. That's a sneaky way to sustain ice accretion with only light returns across the sub-forum, especially those west of the fall line. Verbatim, this would be a pretty nasty event with snow to sleet and ending as several hours of freezing rain and mist. It will become really slippery on Wednesday if that came to fruition.

Thank you for that bit of explanation.  Being next to the Atlantic often throws a wrench in forecasts around here. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon gets precip in DC  around 10z . Looks decent for thump  

 

 

Ninjd 

Yeah, we pretty much just got iconed! Surface stays at or below freezing for cities north and west for the entire event it appears. Big thump. If people want to know best case scenario it's what the icon just gave us imo. 

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54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol..at 66  its got a heavy band...and then a gap of precip south of EZF...as it nothing. where the other models have a solid wall of precip.  wtf

Yeah, but that looks believable.  We often see a lull in a transition region between types.  I could absolutely see an initial band of snow, and then a lull, then it fills in with sleet/zr. 

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It’s amazing how we suddenly pay attention to the Icon since Stormtracker’s declaration. A week ago everyone would have said, “but it’s the Icon”.  LOL 

Regardless, it’s great to see similarities with all the models at this point in the game. Anything can still happen at this point... as long as it doesn’t go South, literally. 

 

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15 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

It’s amazing how we suddenly pay attention to the Icon since Stormtracker’s declaration. A week ago everyone would have said, “but it’s the Icon”.  LOL 

Regardless, it’s great to see similarities with all the models at this point in the game. Anything can still happen at this point... as long as it doesn’t go South, literally. 

 

Chill has always liked it. So have I. We've been saying all winter that it's sniffed out certain storms at times better than the other globals. It's got weird algorithms etc but it's not a half bad model. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Chill has always liked it. So have I. We've been saying all winter that it's sniffed out certain storms better than the other globals. It's got weird algorithms etc but it's not a half bad model. 

May end up being more accurate than the new GFS...lol

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Follow the model that shows the most snow. 

Weenie rule # 1 in the rulebook

I mean if your not riding the model with the most snow then you’re in the wrong forum lol

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2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

It looks like the ICON starts as freezing rain if its below 32 and then transitions to snow. If true, I don't think that is a good trend.

Gotta bust the boundary...only way this is an event...no cold smoke here.  I like our chances. 

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Back to the NAM for a minute, the stoutness of the cold is really solid.  These are the 925mb temps at 21z, long after we've lost the upper levels.  To this point 1" of QPF has fallen out west and ~0.8" in the 95 corridor.  The NAM really has almost this entire event as frozen of one sort or another.

925s.thumb.GIF.30c5eefd04986aa1edbe787b75de4a5d.GIF

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Best GFS run for the event lol

Well, I dunno yet...I'm only at 66.  I wanna see two panels of snow!

Nevermind...panels were slow loading for me.  Yeah, it's a good run so far...2 full panels of snow..looks moderate at least too

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