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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Well I mean technically...Day 10 does fall around President's Day, does it not? Lol (and certainly before the 20th!)

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30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Would you settle for MECS Feb 30th?

Some people are IMPOSSIBLE to please 

:P

Nah, we get one on February 30th every year.

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50 minutes ago, Ji said:

I really wanted our HECS to be in the first half of Feb...it loses its luster if its between Feb 20 and Feb 31st

Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.

It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

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2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Nice Day 10 pattern on the Euro though, -NAO, -EPO. 

f240-4.gif

3 hours ago called to say it wants it’s news back. 

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Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.
Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
36 minutes ago, Fozz said:
Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

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If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.
Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
37 minutes ago, Fozz said:
Why do you say that? I thought you just said you only care about snow falling, then you're ready to move on. If that's the case, it shouldn't matter whether or not the sun angle is higher.
It actually makes more sense for someone who cares about snowpack to feel this way.... though even then beggars can't be choosers here in the mid-Atlantic.

Yes I like snow falling...and it sticking and accumulating. After over... I dont care what happens. But after feb 20...accumulations dont come as easy. Esp during day

Not as easy, no. Goes without saying. This is a generalization though and not necessarily representative of what we have seen in recent years. Remember St Patty's day event a few years ago?  Low 20s cold powder during the day. It literally could have been mid January the way that played out. Even the mid March storm last year with pretty marginal temps produced a very solid event. If we have a good set up, it can snow efficiently during the day, well into March.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Fozz said:
If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

Feb 22, 2015 was a very good storm for both of us.... granted it was bitterly cold in the beginning, but the sun angle was not a problem at all. Early March has had some pretty good ones in recent years, but then there was also March 2001 and 2013. And up here, March 22 last year had no trouble sticking on the roads even during midday... ended up with 8.5" here, with over a foot to my north. So I think we're very much in the game for good storms after Feb 20 even if they aren't 1993 or March 1958.

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Feb 22, 2015 was a very good storm for both of us.... granted it was bitterly cold in the beginning, but the sun angle was not a problem at all. Early March has had some pretty good ones in recent years, but then there was also March 2001 and 2013. And up here, March 22 last year had no trouble sticking on the roads even during midday... ended up with 8.5" here, with over a foot to my north. So I think we're very much in the game for good storms after Feb 20 even if they aren't 1993 or March 1958.
Forgot about that one lol...yes that was amazing. I think half melted after midnight lol...but it was a great event. Heavy snow

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
16 minutes ago, Fozz said:
If it's a HECS or a MECS, then it will accumulate without a problem, even in late March.

Yep...thus the hecs hunter suit. But 1993 storms are rare....I don't remember any great storms between feb 20 and 28. And early March reminds me of heartbreaks like March 2001

I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  

We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 

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I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  
We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 
I had big depression after March 2001. About a month

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:
38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
I think leesburg had back to back 8”+ storms in March 99.  
We’ve had lots of moderate storms in March lately. Have to go back to the 60s and 50s to see true HECS storms. But things are cyclical. Maybe if the -NAO is coming back so are March storms. 

I had big depression after March 2001. About a month

That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way. 

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22 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

-NAO at day 10 is exciting, it was previously stuck. -EPO is kind of a new development, -NAO and -EPO we haven't done together in a while.. it would probably give us a snowstorm. 

 Dry snow that lasts.. all of our snows have been gone in 1-3 days. 

I agree I was just giving you a hard time. 

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Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

That come up Feb 1st like clock work.  It affects melting not accumulating.  It falls into the off run model category in the weenie book.  Mr. Kocin did not write this book nor endorse it. 

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9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That come up Feb 1st like clock work.  It affects melting not accumulating.  It falls into the off run model category in the weenie book.  Mr. Kocin did not write this book nor endorse it. 

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

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36 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Please don't tell me we are doing the sun angle thing already. We've had light to moderate events in mid-to-late March accumulate easily. If it's cold enough and snowing hard enough, the sun angle is a non-issue.

Unfortunately the dumb angle guarantees we will have to talk about the sun angle every year!  

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22 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

Don’t feed them 

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18 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

So if you're feeling extra weenie, then the 18z FV3 is for you

If the FV3 were a street drug it be laced bad sh*t !   

IV s are optional but very expensive for the weenie punks out there  

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26 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Denying reality is also on the first page of the weenie handbook. Look up higher sun angles and its impact on surface snow sublimation, which even happens while it's attempting to accumulate. Give me snow in Dec and Jan anytime over Feb and March

No one is saying they wouldn't it rather happen during low sun angle season, but very rarely do we get big storms in December so it's not even really a convo worth having. I'd like a storm in early-to-mid January of course, but we can make February and even March work. The bigger issue is the melting afterward, not during the storm so long as it's cold and coming down at a good clip. See PD2.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

No one is saying they wouldn't it rather happen during low sun angle season, but very rarely do we get big storms in December so it's not even really a convo worth having. I'd like a storm in early-to-mid January of course, but we can make February and even March work. The bigger issue is the melting afterward, not during the storm so long as it's cold and coming down at a good clip. See PD2.

He is baiting you 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Got cold?

16EF4234-1665-4655-A059-3C73F284613B.thumb.png.1de8d914f817282e417ef0cffb5a24eb.png

 

 

And, the beat for the -NAO grows louder. 

 

 

 
 
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    •  

      last year seemed very clear to me. this year I don't really have a clue if this period of interest produces anything substantial enough to even affect March. I like that the CWB thing materialized after the Ural's block. So far, so good.

 

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