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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

It is on TT

Way better than brother GFS but still a boatload of rain for most of us after a thump of snow 

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GEFS is a straight weenie of all weenie runs.  Start to finish...  Bob hit on the improvements day 5 but in the long range it shifts the EPO ridge into NW Canada (where we want it) and has one of the stronger 50/50 signals you will ever see past 10 days.  Just enough nao ridging.  Again our number 1 correlation to big snowstorms is the lower heights in the 50/50 space.  That is an even bigger correlation to big snow here than the NAO or AO or EPO.  Actually, the whole reason we want a -NAO is to get the 50/50 since typically a ridge over greenland will promote getting systems stuck under it in the 50/50 space.  But the 50/50 is the actual feature we really want to get a big snowstorm.  This is a straight great look...and it gets good well before this too.  Guidance responding to tropical forcing maybe...

reallygood.thumb.png.581237c6b255cb181d54b0148600ead7.png

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@psuhoffman

GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. 

On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. 

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

There's still a good amount of precip coming on the UKIE... but by 144 we are losing the 850s and temps are upper 20s to lower 30s.  Some have changed to wintry mix at 144 while northern areas are still all snow.  Hope that the low at 144 is going to transfer... it's in eastern KY at 144

I was wondering when I saw snow maps.  I was thinking there was at least a few more panels to share.  

Just happy to see nothing is set in stone yet.

 

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Here's a visual of what I just posted. Quite a few members have 3 separate events over 16 days. LOVE seeing that. I'd say the odds of us getting another accum event in the next 2 weeks are above 50/50 for sure. 

jVitmDo.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. 

On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. 

That is what I am expecting. LOL.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

GEFS through d12 or so shows a repeating pattern of storm tracks. Some with 3 in a row. Obviously expecting 3 clean storms in a row is complete crazy talk... I just like seeing the potential for 3 chances in 2 weeks. Give us 3 chances and we'll prob hit on 1 of them. The way this year has treated us it would make sense to hit 2-3 out of 3. I just want another event so I can top climo. Don't care how it happens and don't care if it's a thump to rain. 

On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. 

I loved everything about the GEFS run, start to finish.  There is almost no way everything day 5-16 will be snow, if it is we will end up with 50".  But if we can get the boundary south enough that just 1/3 of it is snow...and enough of the rest is ice/mix to keep some on the ground...I will call that a win.  

I know its further out there but the look day 10-16 is really getting my attention.  The epo shifting east along with that 50/50 look...yesterday we agreed all we need is SOME nao help to shift that into a great pattern and today there are signs we might get exactly that.  I know its way out there in range the guidance has sucked BUT this time the tropical forcing supports such a look and guidance is starting to shift towards that and not away from it so maybe it has some legitimacy this time.  

As for your son, congrats, that is great!  He is well on his way.  

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's a visual of what I just posted. Quite a few members have 3 separate events over 16 days. LOVE seeing that. I'd say the odds of us getting another accum event in the next 2 weeks are above 50/50 for sure. 

jVitmDo.jpg

snowstorm54324320947321097439 messaged me to say e8 is the most accurate gefs member  

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

On a side note... My son has made $600 cold cash shoveling this year. He's only 14 and between his summer lawn mows/odd jobs he's pulled in nearly $1,200. He bought a refurbed macbook pro already and still has a box full of cash. He's a great son on all levels. As long as he avoids problems with drugs and alcohol he's going to be very successful in life. 

Thats great to hear. Getting them on the correct path is key. Let them take responsibility too, my son at 14 picked corn at 530 AM at a local farm market during the summer and made decent money. He used it at the time to buy computer parts and assembled his own gaming computer. Picking corn is rather stinky and wet when you do it for 6 hours in a row.  He did enjoy driving the gator. :bike:

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less confluence and whole thermal profile is shifted a decent bit north at 120 on the euro.  Too early to say yet but that is not a good sign imo.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

less confluence and whole thermal profile is shifted a decent bit north at 120 on the euro.  Too early to say yet but that is not a good sign imo.  

It's our region.  If it's bad, it's never too early to say.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

less confluence and whole thermal profile is shifted a decent bit north at 120 on the euro.  Too early to say yet but that is not a good sign imo.  

Euro amped midrange bias will correct over the next 3 days. It says it right in the handbook. 

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30 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Way better than brother GFS but still a boatload of rain for most of us after a thump of snow 

Yeah I just checked TT and the low is sitting on top of us. That's NOT a good run no matter what the silly snow maps put out.

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Still a quite a bit of frozen on Monday.  Maybe for not us lowlanders but the northern crew.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Still a quite a bit of frozen on Monday.  Maybe for not us lowlanders but the northern crew.

kinda... there is SOME frozen so it's not a total fail but....

washedaway.thumb.png.05257a6bf81882baa439c5f46000c527.png

all this gets washed away by rain immediately after also.   Maybe this is just me, but it kind of ruins the event for me if it ends without anything on the ground.  

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro is a little bit of light mix followed by a big ole cutter rainstorm.  Not as bad as the GFS but the result is the same.  

Ill take the euro.. good dump of snow then ice and rain. Not bad for a transitional week to epic weenie 2nd half pattern

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

kinda... there is SOME frozen so it's not a total fail but....

washedaway.thumb.png.05257a6bf81882baa439c5f46000c527.png

all this gets washed away by rain immediately after also.   Maybe this is just me, but it kind of ruins the event for me if it ends without anything on the ground.  

 

I tried to use my words wisely.  Still a wintery day before the deluge I suppose was my main point.

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