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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Lastly,  as HM stated about 1994 andf the -EPO

I myself could infer for a colder and snowier scenario we may need to wait until after Feb 14 th, As the pattern continues to improve and maybe we even get a -NAO. 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No way, lets blast the MJO into 20 STD phase 8/1/2 and enjoy a parade of 960 lows bombing off the VA Capes to the Benchmark.  

So you don't see suppression issue if we get a mega block?  

BTW, i'm all about your last statement....just concerned for a friend.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

So you don't see suppression issue if we get a mega block?  

BTW, i'm all about your last statement....just concerned for a friend.

Suppression is not high on my list of concerns given the current pattern look

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Suppression is not high on my list of concerns given the current pattern look

I get it, but seeing JI's off the chart P8 seems like 1 extreme to another.  I agree that we need the change though.  Cant argue that for a second.

 

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1 minute ago, Jandurin said:

Usually a good sign when the northerners start getting nervous before a period of activity.

By the looks of what JI posted, IMO we all would be "northerners" if it verified.

 

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2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Usually a good sign when the northerners start getting nervous before a period of activity.

I'm considered a northerner I suppose  but believe me my concern is not suppression in the least my Southern friend.

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW Pappa G looks better at 108 in both 500's and surface.  Hunch says we may like the next couple panels.

 

Yep..Better confluence to the n at 114

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW Pappa G looks better at 108 in both 500's and surface.  Hunch says we may like the next couple panels.

 

Not sure I agree....energy is taking it's time moving out of the west this run. Let's see how it plays out.

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Ehh.  The front piece is further disconnected from the second wave at 141.  Looks to mostly miss south.  Slower with the second as well.

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Ehh.  The front piece is further disconnected from the second wave at 141.  Looks to mostly miss south.  Slower with the second as well.

yeah, I see that.  Still at distance, its not far from something decent.  Not going to fret this far out.

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It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ha wave 1 escapes south wave 2 a cutter. One of the fears we mentioned earlier. Cave to the 0z euro already?

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

Oh I know man this us the most usual and often way we fail in these setups so I cant say a move to it wasnt expected. Now we gotta hope the Sunday night event the GGEM is strongest on verifies because if the GFS OP is close we are back to 60s middle of next week. Fugly.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t pull that scenario out of my arse. I’ve seen this setup before. Sometimes it works if we get a favorable ejection of energy timed with the high. More lead wave is better. An even split can work. Even all front wave is better if there is enough blocking. But when the lead wave is weak and the second wave hangs back this is how it ends 90% of the time. I didn’t like seeing a move that way in guidance the last 24 hours. 

that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s early but this run looks too close to my nightmare fail scenario I outlined earlier this morning. A weak lead wave with a delayed stronger second ejection is playing with fire in this setup imo. 

Being an op run in way out there range, discussing "details" has to be done knowing the perils of doing so at this range.

IMO 500's (and surface to me) looked better early on and I hoped surface further on would reflect.  It didnt.    

Oh well, 6 hrs and the ol man will get another stab at it.  

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