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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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GFS op has shown several systems like this throughout it's runs.  A weaker wave ejects south of us while a cutter forms on its heels.  A little odd but not completely unbelievable.

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15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And by hr 138 we are seeing again some fairly significant changes at 500's

Yep ..some phasing starting  to occur at 156 from energy in south central Canada.  Wave 1 actually looked colder with more confluence then 6z around 114 but not much surface reflection 

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Just now, Ji said:

that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps

At D5+ we have plenty of time to lose a good solution (today), shift back so a sick solution (next couple days), and then lose it all again in the short range. 

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3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Holy hell GFS is an epic fail for everyone!  Rain all the way up into Canada.  

That area just south of Hudson Bay gets destroyed with back to back snowstorms.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps

You were right. I was on your side. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At D5+ we have plenty of time to lose a good solution (today), shift back so a sick solution (next couple days), and then lose it all again in the short range. 

I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

that was my biggest fear this morning when Showmethesnwo was celebrating the snow maps

Celebrating? Really? LOL. I was pocking fun at you Ji. :devilsmiley: Or do I have to work harder at making it obvious?

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The GFS is simply lost. 

I would not worry too much at this time with the goofy GFS. Yes, its possible it goes down like this, but I doubt it. 

Also, I concur with psu this may never really be our event anyway.  Even if we were in the sweet spot getting all snow 24 hours before the event starts it could still go poof  like back in 1994.  

I like the time period after the 15th better. But, with all things weather, you never know.    

 

 

 

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Biggest takeaway after looking at the GFS. Everything is far from settled. GFS has no idea how to handle the 500's and especially the NS. Until it gets a handle on that any one solution is as good as the other.

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 Bird in hand and all, let’s keep some focus on that first wave for Monday. Looks better on both gfs and GGEM.

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

You nailed it.....

Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting.  Too amped/too tucked coastal.

ETA: Dont know how I responded to my own post?  @Chris78

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Do we know why DC is always 25 miles too north in this scenario? 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Because with this pattern (-epo -pna se ridge, cold high on top) the trough axis is way west of us. It can work if a healthy system ejects into the high. Unfortunately what happens more often is most of the energy hangs back with the main trough in the west, whatever weak energy ejects slides east under the high and can’t gain any latitude so stays south of us...(if the cold wasn’t pressing south of us we wouldn’t even be seeing this as a threat window) and then the main energy comes out once the confluence relaxes allowing it to amplify to our west. This is how this setup usually goes.  Not always. It can work. But this is the typical fail look on that run. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You were right. I was on your side. 

When did some on this board lose their sense of humor? I know Snow is serious business but if we can't have a little fun while were at it why bother tracking?

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting.  Too amped/too tucked coastal.

Any wave 1 on fv3?

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because with this pattern (-epo -pna se ridge, cold high on top) the trough axis is way west of us. It can work if a healthy system ejects into the high. Unfortunately what happens more often is most of the energy hangs back with the main trough in the west, whatever weak energy ejects slides east under the high and can’t gain any latitude so stays south of us...(if the cold wasn’t pressing south of us we wouldn’t even be seeing this as a threat window) and then the main energy comes out once the confluence relaxes allowing it to amplify to our west. This is how this setup usually goes. 

So in the previous runs that worked...the two pieces of energy came together into a healthier system and then "eject" into the high? (Pardon me if I misunderstood ya)

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 Bird in hand and all, let’s keep some focus on that first wave for Monday. Looks better on both gfs and GGEM.

Absolutely.  IMO w/ MJO progressing to better phases, I'd think OP's are likely in catch up mode no matter how good or bad they look.

I'm not picking sides in who's right and who's wrong.  

Its a model discussion thread, so tell it like you see it (or wanna see it :P). 

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6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Verbatim it's a M/HECS....Probably turn to mix/rain in our area but not before a massive thump. Not because it's cutting.  Too amped/too tucked coastal.

ETA: Dont know how I responded to my own post?  @Chris78

First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us. :D

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Ukie looks more progressive and probably better for us . 144 looks decent with possible transfer . 

1008 low in Kentucky with hints of transfer at 144

Anyone with ukmet surface ?

 

Screenshot_20190206-115003_Chrome_crop_432x680.jpg

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us. :D

Meh...I've been known to talk to myself about the weather...especially durning model runs.  Just ask my wife.  Nobody else in this house give a sh*t if it snows...I'm the only oddball! 

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

First Leesburg is talking to himself and now you are? Guess people are starting to crack under the pressure. Where's the Reaper when you need him, he needs to start cleaning out the weak among us

Maybe low blood sugar.  I felt better this morning after I had some coffee cake, love cinnamon !  :)  opps  back to the weather ......

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:

FV3 looks like a monstrous hit lol

A stronger lead wave will also promote the high hanging back to the north due to the return flow it creates and it lowers heights enough along the coast to help pull the second system in. Not enough lead wave and the second system is stronger with no height fall in the east to pull it towards and so it’s more likely to cut. 

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