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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Meh...I've been known to talk to myself about the weather...especially durning model runs.  Just ask my wife.  Nobody else in this house give a sh*t if it snows...I'm the only oddball! 

You are in far better company than you realize buddy.

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14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

When did some on this board lose their sense of humor? I know Snow is serious business but if we can't have a little fun while were at it why bother tracking?

Lol I was on his side wrt his fears. I wasn’t implying I was against you. Sorry. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A stronger lead wave will also promote the high hanging back to the north due to the return flow it creates and it lowers heights enough along the coast to help pull the second system in. Not enough lead wave and the second system is stronger with no height fall in the east to pull it towards and so it’s more likely to cut. 

The tendency this year has been generally stronger than anticipated.  There is no massive confluence that would argue for that first system to shred so my guess is it ends up decently strong.  That event is almost certainly rain for you guys and would probably be a NYC-BOS snow ecent.  That though enables DCA/BWI to get hit by the 2nd system which is likely to be much more significant anyway.  As I said earlier it’s 2/8-11 1994 exactly.  That first wave ended up much stronger than expected 3-4 days out.  The AVN and Euro thought the 2/11 event would be all rain and a massive cutter because it underplayed the first storm.  

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not declaring anything dead. But I’ve also never jumped on this because these epo se ridge gradient type patterns shift north 75% of the time. We can snow that way but more often it ends up breaking our hearts. I’m just playing the odds. 

I'm not getting invested in anything until the short range unless a real block builds. We've been dealing with mostly progressive flow for years now. Being in or out of the game at D5 hasn't really told us much with any close call storm. Always comes down to the final 72 hours. If everything goes to hell before that and then holds we can write it off outside of 72 hours. We've seen that. However, things can still look really dicey at 72 hours and we trend into a final (successful) solution. This is where my head is at. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You are in far better company than you realize buddy.

Ha! No doubt...That's the only reason i hang out in this godforsaken place...

 

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in the previous runs that worked...the two pieces of energy came together into a healthier system and then "eject" into the high? (Pardon me if I misunderstood ya)

There are multiple ways to work. The easiest is more energy sooner. Even if the lead wave fails you want it to lower heights to our southeast as much as possible to create a weakness for the next wave to be drawn towards. Additionally it limits the energy held back that could over amp the second wave to our west. The trough axis is not good so we don’t want something going nuts out west. More energy early is better because the cold is in place with confluence. The longer something waits to get organized the more chance it departs.  If too much energy holds back it likely cuts. A nice even split and we could end up with the fv3 coastal bomb idea. The way you get that is enough wave 1 to lower heights and promote high pressure hanging back over the top then the second wave phases into that weakness along the coast under the high.  There are a lot of moving parts but the worst case scenario is too much energy holding back too long. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not getting invested in anything until the short range unless a real block builds. We've been dealing with mostly progressive flow for years now. Being in or out of the game at D5 hasn't really told us much with any close call storm. Always comes down to the final 72 hours. If everything goes to hell before that and then holds we can write it off outside of 72 hours. We've seen that. However, things can still look really dicey at 72 hours and we trend into a final (successful) solution. This is where my head is at. 

Sounds right...I’m just keeping my expectations low so as not to get let down. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Gefs

Looks like a colder look overall thru 120 lookin at individual members 

Yea man, gefs looks really good. Mixed outcomes with both waves but a really nice run through d8. Starting to feel like we're going to get at least some snow out of the busy flow. Hopefully by Friday things will congeal enough so the discussion turns towards how much instead of snow or no snow. 

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48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Ukie looks more progressive and probably better for us . 144 looks decent with possible transfer . 

1008 low in Kentucky with hints of transfer at 144

Anyone with ukmet surface ?

 

Screenshot_20190206-115003_Chrome_crop_432x680.jpg

Through 144 it's a very nice hit.  Good CAD being shown.  Start to lose 850s at 144

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Through 144 it's a very nice hit.  Good CAD being shown.  Start to lose 850s at 144

That’s what I was hoping Pappa G would look like  

So now fv3 Ukie and gefs look decent.

Good enough for now. 

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Just now, yoda said:

snowfall_total_accum_10to1_PANJDE_hr144.thumb.png.3eaf089048a0658ebbb0cdf1b2989746.png

interesting spread of the highest totals.  that high must be really pushing the dry air. to the NE.  NYC crew will shed a tear at that map. 

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


If you happen to have the detailed maps, is the lack of snow in Charlottesville a surface temp issue or is it an ice rink down here?

 

Probably ice rink as 850 0c line is to your north just a tad... but temps are on the upper 20s to around 30

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6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably ice rink as 850 0c line is to your north just a tad... but temps are on the upper 20s to around 30

I'm guessing that means maybe a bit more snow for EZF but an ice rink as well on the UKMET

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I thought people said FV3 was a big hit?

People = Ji

in fairness it looked like it was going to be a big hit, then it bombed and cut the low inland right over DC and flipped to rain.  It reminded me a little of the early march storm in 1994 that run.  

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There's still a good amount of precip coming on the UKIE... but by 144 we are losing the 850s and temps are upper 20s to lower 30s.  Some have changed to wintry mix at 144 while northern areas are still all snow.  Hope that the low at 144 is going to transfer... it's in eastern KY at 144

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought people said FV3 was a big hit?

Watch the Euro start to change personalities soon. Interesting opening acts so far.  

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought people said FV3 was a big hit?

Yeah there’s no wiggle room there for the metros but I guess no sense in getting into detail 

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