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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That was a rough one for me too. I was recovering from a bad ski accident I suffered in January that year. Had to take a semester off from school for it and so I couldn’t plan a ski trip to cope which is my typical MO. Sucked to end an already sucky year that way. 

What happened up your way in March 2001?  I remember back then my local meteorologist mentioning that modelling had been suggesting an impressive NAO block, but that it disappeared (imagine that). 

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5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What happened up your way in March 2001?  I remember back then my local meteorologist mentioning that modelling had been suggesting an impressive NAO block, but that it disappeared (imagine that). 

If I may just mention this , that event I still cry over.

Was forecasted to get 18 to 22 inches of snow in Northern Delaware, and only got 1/2 inch. Worse busted forecast ever !!!!!!!  

Complex diving energy from Northern Canada and in the end only far New England got it I believe. 

GFS 12  days prior forecasted a 952 mb low over the benchmark , DT war WOOFING loudly. 

He called that the forecast that went badly the Pamela Anderson Bust

John Bolaris was on Philly channel 10 and was gung ho on the event , all the outlets  were, but he was tormented by angry folks stating his forecast was the worse ever.  He left the station after that I think. 

 

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34 minutes ago, frd said:

If I may just mention this , that event I still cry over.

Was forecasted to get 18 to 22 inches of snow in Northern Delaware, and only got 1/2 inch. Worse busted forecast ever !!!!!!!  

Complex diving energy from Northern Canada and in the end only far New England got it I believe. 

GFS 12  days prior forecasted a 952 mb low over the benchmark , DT war WOOFING loudly. 

He called that the forecast that went badly the Pamela Anderson Bust

John Bolaris was on Philly channel 10 and was gung ho on the event , all the outlets  were, but he was tormented by angry folks stating his forecast was the worse ever.  He left the station after that I think. 

 

Bolaris had them scroll a warning across the bottom of TV screen throughout the day during the day prior. Iirc he was forecasting 2-3' here. We received less than 3/4". This was an epic bust because I believe it happened in under 24 hours possibly much less. I recall the euro 12z day prior coming in and nudging everything north. We all kind of shrugged it off as noise since all other guidance held steady and besides we thought such sudden and immense short term changes and shifts were impossible. When the 18z AVN and ETA came in warmer and 'norther' people thought again it was noise. When 0z came in unanimous with the bust just mere hours away it was a feeling I will NEVER EVER forget and would never wish that heartbreak on my worst enemy.

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Also known as the storm that shall not be named.  I wasn't really on any weather boards yet, but i had already begun my trip down weather lane loving the weather and forecasting it.

I remember telling my classmates we would be out for a while and not to worry about doing homework for some time.  I was pretty good with my predictions along with one of my teachers, so everyone was going along with what we called for.

Remember waking up to green grass and sunny skies I believe the next morning... I felt so bad since there was a big history test the next day.  Got roasted at school by my friends and other students... took a while before I got believed again calling for big snow.  This was freshman year of high school.

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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bolaris had them scroll a warning across the bottom of TV screen throughout the day during the day prior. Iirc he was forecasting 2-3' here. We received less than 3/4".

I recall like it was yesterday Paul Kocin the day prior on the Weather Channel reviewing the energy set to dive in and it was up near Northern Canada, I new much less then, my God 18 years ago,  where has time gone? 

Anyways, it dawned on me at that time all that was needed to get this huge storm going, after that mid day update from Paul things started to fall apart. 

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38 minutes ago, Fozz said:

March 2001 makes me glad I didn't start following the weather until 2002. I was 10 back then... I would've probably cried.

Same man...that sounds really rough, lol I was the same age but don't quite remember this bust! (I do recall another perhaps I year prior that was supposed to happen on Saturday...but then I woke up to blue skies and the reporters saying "we dodged a bullet!" And I was like "NO!!" and was in a bad mood for the rest of the day, lol) 

Anybody else remember that one? (seems like it was around 2000!)

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8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Same man...that sounds really rough, lol I was the same age but don't quite remember this bust! (I do recall another perhaps I year prior that was supposed to happen on Saturday...but then I woke up to blue skies and the reporters saying "we dodged a bullet!" And I was like "NO!!" and was in a bad mood for the rest of the day, lol) 

Anybody else remember that one? (seems like it was around 2000!)

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

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5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

Yup. I remember they were calling for 12-18” on Friday afternoon and when i woke up Saturday morning it was sunny. It was painful. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

I recall like it was yesterday Paul Kocin the day prior on the Weather Channel reviewing the energy set to dive in and it was up near Northern Canada, I new much less then, my God 18 years ago,  where has time gone? 

Anyways, it dawned on me at that time all that was needed to get this huge storm going, after that mid day update from Paul things started to fall apart. 

Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the  loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm).

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Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the  loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm).
That was 2001. After that storm...a month later...to make my depression worse...my company winstar folded and I lost my job

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58 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Probably December 30, 2000. That one was a Miller B screwjob. 9" in Philly, 12" in NYC with some 20" totals north and west, but not a single flake in DC or Baltimore. The precip shield was very compact with a brutal cutoff.

 

50 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Yup. I remember they were calling for 12-18” on Friday afternoon and when i woke up Saturday morning it was sunny. It was painful. 

Yep that's the one...lol What is it about late December snow that always seems to result in heartbreak? Lol Has a late, post-Christmas December storm ever worked out??

Oh and...is it fair to say: "Never trust Miller B's"...lol

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i wasn't as disappointed in march 2001 as i thought i'd be.  this was before i knew about weather boards, but the fact that i was able to shoot hoops in shorts and a tshirt the day before was a yellow flag for me.  some of the worst busts were in the 80s/90s when they'd call for a winter storm watch or warning and you'd wake up to a non accumulating rain/snow mix lol.  i think it was before models were able to pick up on how much the appalachians destroy clippers and weak lows here.

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20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i wasn't as disappointed in march 2001 as i thought i'd be.  this was before i knew about weather boards, but the fact that i was able to shoot hoops in shorts and a tshirt the day before was a yellow flag for me.  some of the worst busts were in the 80s/90s when they'd call for a winter storm watch or warning and you'd wake up to a non accumulating rain/snow mix lol.  i think it was before models were able to pick up on how much the appalachians destroy clippers and weak lows here.

Models had less skill period. Many big storms here are razors edge between a crushing and a fail. Day 2 in modeland back then is day 4 now. 

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Looks like a parade of storms on the gfs....similar to the one for early next week.  Big cold highs to the N and juiced up systems attacking....hopefully as we get out in the D10-15 with a little better overall h5 look we can time one of these up with a good block. Gonna be a wild month I think ... 

Eta: Like this block...:D

zZwWvsl.png

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So, naturally...the EURO in fantasy range has this at 240...right on PD weekend :lol: (now if by Sunday we actually start seeing more guidance try and put somethin' there I'll be no good, lolol)

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

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6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Models had less skill period. Many big storms here are razors edge between a crushing and a fail. Day 2 in modeland back then is day 4 now. 

Had a similar situation tho I'm not sure this sub region had the same impacts as the fail of late Jan(?) 2015. We were forecast by every model to get 14-28" of snow even up until 12 hours prior. Some models slowly backed off but I remember the euro hung on and may have even increased totals. Woke up to partly sunny and pixie dust snow flurries. Busts still happen even with advancement in skill level.

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6 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Looks like a parade of storms on the gfs....similar to the one for early next week.  Big cold highs to the N and juiced up systems attacking....hopefully as we get out in the D10-15 with a little better overall h5 look we can time one of these up with a good block. Gonna be a wild month I think ... 

Eta: Like this block...:D

zZwWvsl.png

Eps says gfs/gefs out to lunch and brings the WAR back by day 10 (weak neg NAO is there anyway but 50/50 pulls away so not sure the Atl works there based on the look out West). One camp is going to fail by day 10. Not worried about post D+10 need to see what happens prior imo. Euro is emphatic implying this 10 day stretch is where we should be focusing and forget about fantasyland for now. If the day 10 look is the sacrifice we make on the EPS to get what the euro OP throws at us between now and then I'm in. Then give me a side of gefs/geps thereafter. ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.thumb.png.0fdf794332a636403c9e0c2d44727e89.png

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Gonna say it just because I know nobody else will....looks like early Jan again where many are unicorn hunting out past day 10 where our best opportunities of the entire winter may be right under our noses over the next 10 days. Funny how winter 2019 works.

Eta: Not saying day 10+ is a fail just saying there is alot of talk that the "best look" is way out there and yet to come. I'm not sure the "best look" thing has been the one to work out has it?

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5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

6z gfs looks pretty ok for the end of next week 

If we get a due W to E track along the gradient like some guidance is showing and dont trend toward amping things in the midwest this will certainly work.

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11 hours ago, Ji said:
11 hours ago, Stormpc said:
Was it the 2000 or 2001 bust where Kocin was preaching the  loop de loop? Both were epic. I remember going outside Friday night at midnight and seeing a clear sky and full moon after only hours earlier it had clouded up (2000 storm).

That was 2001. After that storm...a month later...to make my depression worse...my company winstar folded and I lost my job

Ji do you remember talking to me on AIM the night of the Dec 2000 bust? You said you were leaving a party and knew it was a bad sign that you could still see stars in the sky....Don’t ask me why I remember that lol....That was the first year I got into wx boards etc. One thing I remember leading up to March 01 was Ji & Noreaster’s (not sure if he posts anymore or has a new username) infamous threads on wright-weather. That storm was a punch in the gut. Who also remembers JB’s newsletter title on Saturday AM before the event? 

Anyway, 6z EPS looked colder & showed more CAD for next week’s event, and the day 9-10 thing could make up for it if it ends up being a bust....fun times ahead hopefully. 

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5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Dude, you need to be more like Frankie and Relax.  Don't do it.  :)

I'd much rather be walking in a Winter Wonderland but hey, maybe soon enough right?

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Eps says gfs/gefs out to lunch and brings the WAR back by day 10 (weak neg NAO is there anyway but 50/50 pulls away so not sure the Atl works there based on the look out West). One camp is going to fail by day 10. Not worried about post D+10 need to see what happens prior imo. Euro is emphatic implying this 10 day stretch is where we should be focusing and forget about fantasyland for now. If the day 10 look is the sacrifice we make on the EPS to get what the euro OP throws at us between now and then I'm in. Then give me a side of gefs/geps thereafter. ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.thumb.png.0fdf794332a636403c9e0c2d44727e89.png

Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but.....

Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS?

Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS?  Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again

Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time.  It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days.  One does not necessary detract from the other.  

There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub.  HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them.  Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub.  You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking.  Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking.

This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you were comparing it too

EPS15.thumb.png.b5f41fe19459e38d68075216043afe78.png

.... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct.  There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO.  The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern.  

None of that means we cannot score before that.  The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend.  BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score.  This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern.  Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win.  Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs.  imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

 

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