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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

I'm having flashbacks to early January with every new weeklies and ens run being better in the LR. I think this time around has more support from seasonal pattern drivers going for it. I think cautious optimism should definitely guide our way here while we continue to track some legit threats in the medium range.

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56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

Need to appease Ralph and his daily criticism of looking too far down the road. Through d10 aint no slouch either

XQwhqiW.jpg

Cautiously optimistic. Not pessimistic on the pattern upcoming (at least trying not to be sorry if coming off that way). Just playing devils advocate at times. The LR has burned us hard at least twice this season already. Third time is the charm. Like I said above and I am with you and psu and showme.....the seasonal catalysts are on our side for once so this HAS to be the real deal. Just want to get thru these next few events here and get something more than a nuisance storm under our belts where I'm at. We should all be happy campers sooner than later.

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the euro did the most complete about face for this weekend...wow...00z had a MECS...12z has a storm way up north

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro did the most complete about face for this weekend...wow...00z had a MECS...12z has a storm way up north

U sure? Looks like it is forced under and redevelops off Va Capes then heads ene this run. Compare 216 to 240 eta: 216 slp in ne Wisconsin but redevelopment near VA NC border by 240 new low is bombed well off coast and moving out. Quick hitter but dont think the main show is north. Certainly not 0z either as u said.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

U sure? Looks like it is forced under and redevelopis off Va Capes then heads ene this run. Compare 216 to 240

You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run.  

Nah it's this run but didnt check 850s. With those temps any transfer is irrelevant so yep euro just crapped the bed late week .

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Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. 

dont assume anything...everything that we know about winter...the exact opposite has happened this year

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the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes!

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes!

That’s the same increase as last run when it went from 2” to 5” after the storm early next week. 

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EPS snowfall mean sucks...its only 6 but 3 is from an event a few days away....so the other 3 are in the next 10 days after that. yikes!

You must have bladder leaks

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

You must have bladder leaks

The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days.  Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days.  Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. 

I'm dead serious here....and I'm sure others do it too but Ji believes deep down that the more he complains and says winter over that somehow magically the models start showing more snow. Maybe he will admit it but after all of these years we all have a sense of each others personality defects.

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days.  Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8. 

3 in the last 8 sucks because thats our epic period lol

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

3 in the last 8 sucks because thats our epic period lol

Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now. 

@Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo.  

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill was saying how weenieish the 12z GEFS was, but it has a SE ridge the entire time as well and has the -NAO/50-50 combo.  

Yea I posted a frame from the 12z gfs where we were under a big ridge and snowing. It could work that way. But I still suspect that se ridge is overdone. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east. 

I know the answer to this is yes as anything is possible, but could the SE ridge holding actually be correct and one of those other teleconnections or indices wrong? And if so, if there was one thing driving the se ridge in contrast to the good MJO and soi looks what do you think it could be?

On the plus side, that se ridge pretty much gets squashed down on other guidance so there's that.

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There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.  

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.  

I know I haven't been paying attention as much lately, but are we actually in a Nino? If anything its a warm neutral I would think. Either way guidance likes some SE ridge action, for whatever reason. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There's been discussion around that MJO Phase 8/1 in Ninos with early season SSWs DOES correlate to a SE ridge.  

Furtado’s study?  I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB!  Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want?  Are they somehow all bad?!?  

Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Furtado’s study?  I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB!  Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want?  Are they somehow all bad?!?  

Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf. 

I could be wrong, I was just going off memory.  Could just be 7/8.  

 

On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS.  Will be an interesting study.  

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I could be wrong, I was just going off memory.  Could just be 7/8.  

 

On a related note, I wonder if the SSW *does* end up actually saving this winter from being a raging dumpster fire for all of the eastern CONUS.  Will be an interesting study.  

Other than one tpv displacement that only lead to 5.5” of snow in my yard...I’ve seen no sign its been of benefit. And now I see chatter that it’s lingering effects could be disrupting the typical response to favorable tropical forcing. So how it’s helping us so far is beyond me. 

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