• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Newest Member
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m actually kind of rooting on a mega cutter bomb. That could help tank the NAO more and get the trough into the east behind it. 

Ha ha ha , that was my line of thinking too .I see you ninajed my mind 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Chill out..there were big storms in that period. Ji dismisses the 12-18” storm in late Feb 1987 for some reason.  We just had a 6-10” snow late Feb in 2015. We had a 6” snow late February 2005.  Ji is making a big deal of a minor statistical anomaly. 

So one 12-18 inch late February storm in the last 60 years? Forgive me if I don't like those odds...was really hoping for PD, but...might not be meant to be (I mean, there is minimal chance with that now, right?) Would love to be surprised at late February, though. But historically, doesn't appear to be favorable...but I'll gladly be wrong!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe a couple of cutters.  Then it should get really good. 

Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go?  Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!!

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

So much for PD3 based on that.  Had high hopes for that weekend.  Not sure why

I did too (maybe it was because of history, lol)...really felt like something might pop there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go?  Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!!

You are a pillar of optimism.  I wish I could be but I just have a bad feeling like Hurley did in Lost.  We know what happened there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

You are a pillar of optimism.  I wish I could be but I just have a bad feeling like Hurley did in Lost.  We know what happened there. 

I'm like a blend of the GFS and UKIE....cautious optimism and hope balanced with depressive pessimism and disastrous helplessness. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I did too (maybe it was because of history, lol)...really felt like something might pop there.

Well next fri-sat storm was the catalyst for reinforcing the 50/50 and helping to build blocking in NAO region so yeah......gulp. But there is a signal for something later next weekend into early the following week but hey....one day at a time right? 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

its a valid idea though. 

When you can grab the pebble from my hand you will have learned grasshopper ........    Hey.... I am dating myself right.   I bet you know where that line is from   

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well next fri-sat storm was the catalyst for reinforcing the 50/50 and helping to build blocking in NAO region so yeah......gulp. But there is a signal for something later next weekend into early the following week but hey....one day at a time right? 

True...maybe we can get it on PD or the day after (hopefully!) I did notice that wonderful red over Greenland the 18z showed around that time, so who knows? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? 

One of those is counting down to pattern change and one is counting down to a legitimate threat

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, frd said:

When you can grab the pebble from my hand you will have learned grasshopper ........    Hey.... I am dating myself right.   I bet you know where that line is from   

Well, that does sound familiar, though I cannot quite recall the show it was from (so perhaps dating myself too, haha!)

There's of course "Karate Kid", as well:  show me wax on, wax off...sand the floor...paint the fence...side-side.  Yes, Daniel-san, only when you master these, will you get a true HECS! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So one 12-18 inch late February storm in the last 60 years? Forgive me if I don't like those odds...was really hoping for PD, but...might not be meant to be (I mean, there is minimal chance with that now, right?) Would love to be surprised at late February, though. But historically, doesn't appear to be favorable...but I'll gladly be wrong!

You’re talking about only an 8 day period. There are so few 12”+ storms that with the exception of a few lucky weeks there are several 8 day periods without a lot of 12”+ storms. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go?  Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!!

Thought you were excited for this epo gradient pattern?!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, that does sound familiar, though I cannot quite recall the show it was from (so perhaps dating myself too, haha!)

If the long range was exciting I would never post this , but because we still have a ways to go here you are

psu got me thinking of martial arts with his emoji 

David Caradine I believe as the character ages 

The show was called Kung Fu 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How about we will those clouds and precip down in Jebman land to organize into a lp; ride up what's left of the cold front and give us 3-5 Saturday night!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Like January all over. The first cutter should setup the second cutter which will dip the baroclinic zone for the wave that goes south but sets the stage for the catalyst system which we have to get the rain before we get to the rainbow after that oh wait its St Patty's Day where did winter go?  Fingers crossed we dont have a repeat scenario this month. Feb 20+ ftmfw!!

The cutter after the cutter after the cutter sets up the 1-3” day 15!!!

winning 

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was .... pending where the boundary set up. 

When was the last time we had a -epo -pna pattern with no blocking, no suppressed tpv, and the epo was centered off the west coast and we got a lot of snow??? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman We always talk about how the NAO region is tough for models to predict....usually it comes into focus in the med range.  The GEFS made a pretty big jump to a  stout -NAO  by D10.  Pretty dramatic shift imo compared to 12z...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When was the last time we had a -epo -pna pattern with no blocking, no suppressed tpv, and the epo was centered off the west coast and we got a lot of snow??? 

January 17, 1746

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

January 17, 1746

Lol... I do deb sometimes...but I don’t do it because I’m emotional or trolling or in a bad mood...I do it when the pattern just isn’t right according to history. I’ve seen the models pop out snow in a pattern that just isn’t favorable time and time and time again (just 3 weeks ago they did this same game with that swfe) and 90% of the time it degrades to rain as we get closer. Not always, flukes happen. But I don’t like counting on flukes. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

@psuhoffman We always talk about how the NAO region is tough for models to predict....usually it comes into focus in the med range.  The GEFS made a pretty big jump to a  stout -NAO  by D10.  Pretty dramatic shift imo compared to 12z...

It fell back in line. The eps tanks the NAO around day 8 and holds it through the run. Weeklies and cfs holds it into March. Gfs lost it at 12z and brought it back 18z. I said after 12z I’m not reacting to one gefs run unless the eps follows. Gefs has a severe issue with being jumpy because it’s not dispersed enough. At times the op euro scores higher at day 10. That’s pathetic!  They need to fix that with the next major upgrade or else the ncep package is of limited usefulness at range. 

Overall the -NAO is moving closer in time. It’s down to about 8 days away now. It went pretty negative the last few days which sets up the 50/50 but it breaks down too quickly and so our threat Tuesday is degrading. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It fell back in line. The eps tanks the NAO around day 8 and holds it through the run. Weeklies and cfs holds it into March. Gfs lost it at 12z and brought it back 18z. I said after 12z I’m not reacting to one gefs run unless the eps follows. Gefs has a severe issue with being jumpy because it’s not dispersed enough. At times the op euro scores higher at day 10. That’s pathetic!  They need to fix that with the next major upgrade or else the ncep package is of limited usefulness at range. 

Overall the -NAO is moving closer in time. It’s down to about 8 days away now. It went pretty negative the last few days which sets up the 50/50 but it breaks down too quickly and so our threat Tuesday is degrading. 

Was out all day today and wasn't watching runs.  You are right about the eps but the gefs hasnt had a ripe NAO as early as D10 at all.  EPS hinted at 00z.  Who knows...but, if it's actually going to happen this is the way it starts.  Sit and wait......

Went to the hunting/fishing show in Harrisburg yesterday.....I want snow badly but i am also getting the fishing bug big time! Give me a spring drought in March so we can have summer flow and spring fishing conditions. Been a long time since we have had below norm precip in spring.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, frd said:

If the long range was exciting I would never post this , but because we still have a ways to go here you are

psu got me thinking of martial arts with his emoji 

David Caradine I believe as the character ages 

The show was called Kung Fu 

 

 

 

 

I’m going to roam the Earth like Caine...looking for snow. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.