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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion


Ji
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea I was just going along with the tone Ji and Leesburg seem to be trying to establish. I don’t put much weight in the gefs right now anyways. 

I was just trying to get Bristow to leap...he loves looking at OP runs in the long range for temps and when I saw 60s I knew he was having an aneurysm...I remain vigilant :snowwindow:

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Only because February is a short month 

Psu and Cape have been saying d10 to 15 look good for 2 weeks ....the problem is now 10-15 is starting to tickle march. Were going to get one good wintry day in feb?

Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure

Watch us get a hecs on feb 28 and feb finishes +5 with 23 inches of snow

Could happen I suppose but it would have to be a surprise storm because every threat that shows up on the models in the long range disappears.

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27 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Or none....who knows bro...crazy winter for sure

It might not snow the rest of winter. Probably will though. It looks like the last week or so of Feb and into March is when the pattern should be colder and more favorable in the east. Hard to have any confidence when it seems we have been saying the same thing all winter, but now we know where we stand with the Nino(or lack there of), and the MJO and SOI look to finally cooperate. If it ends "badly", so be it. Weather gonna weather, and sometimes it doesn't behave as expected(or desired).

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wow, this has been a truly epic pattern and winter for parts of the Plains. I wonder when the last time they got nailed with repeated blizzards like this?  And Feb shows no end in sight for them. Screw the road trips N, time to head West!

I was thinking the same- clearly this is the Midwest’s winter. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It might not snow the rest of winter. Probably will though. It looks like the last week or so of Feb and into March is when the pattern should be colder and more favorable in the east. Hard to have any confidence when it seems we have been saying the same thing all winter, but now we know where we stand with the Nino(or lack there of), and the MJO and SOI look to finally cooperate. If it ends "badly", so be it. Weather gonna weather, and sometimes it doesn't behave as expected(or desired).

Was saying the same thing earlier to a few colleagues that enjoy snow.

The thought that keeps going thru my head for a few days now is we know the MJO with some aid from the SOI have been driving the pattern. This much we seem to know. So on paper if the LR MJO progression and SOI SD appear favorable then recent history says we should enter a good pattern. Ok, ens picked up on this and have been reflecting a better look in the Atl. But what I keep asking myself is this....why should we believe the MJO and SOI forecasts will be accurate at range? Seems like we are putting all of our eggs in this basket where the assumption is both of those indices verify. If for some reason the SOI decides not to tank or the MJO doesnt head into the more favorable phases then we are right back where we began. 

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The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast.  Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting.  That's a pretty good look actually.  If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast.  It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc.  That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ.  

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The shutout pattern in December had that Pac jet blasting into the west coast.  Now it's barely making it to the dateline before splitting.  That's a pretty good look actually.  If anything we want it to extend a bit farther so that ridge is closer to the west coast.  It gets there right at the very end, but 14-16 days out, etc.  That jet across the CONUS there is primarily STJ.  

@WxUSAF  do you still feel if the -NAO materializes we do indeed still have an oppurtunity to get "some"  snow near the very last part of Feb. (maybe early March )   I am burnt out by this winter. Thanks !!  Always appreciate your insights ! 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Like bluewave said in December the Pac jet is a killer.   We will never get out of this pattern if this continues and there are no real signs you can believe. 

gem-ens_uv250_npac_fh0-384.gif.88e344a3c

The MJO should help everyone out coming up towards the latter half of this month

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