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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

One last thing... I also agree with Bob that the PDO region ended up being more of a problem than anticipated.  

I learned that from Matt many years ago. He's said many times we will struggle with storm track and ptype more often than not in any PDO phase except +. We can go down the rabbit hole of what drives what and such but at the end of the day, when a large area of AN SSTAs exist off the coast of Japan it's not a good sign here. 

Going off memory but I'm pretty much 100% sure that any nino of any strength that produced well here had a +PDO on the DJF means. I never liked seeing the state of the PDO in Nov and Dec but every damn long ranger went snowy in the east so I mostly discounted it. Never again man. Never again. 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

What a crazy repetitive fail on the GFS.. wow! Ground will remain wet not white with that! 

 

Don't worry the euro will...oh wait it said the exact same thing last night!

I think we need to wait for the response to the coming SOI/MJO phase changes to get some more stable permanent blocking and thus shift the trough axis and press the boundary south.  That is why I have never really become excited about next week.  I still have hope I am wrong.  Not throwing in the towel on anything yet... Maybe this whole "guidance isnt seeing the CAD" thing is right.  But I have seen this pattern over and over and over again look good at range and shift NW when it gets into game time.  In most of the -EPO-PNA gradient patterns that worked either the EPO was centered much further east in western Canada, OR there was a displaced TPV to our north suppressing the boundary south.  We have neither of those and this falls into the category of "usually teases and then fails us".  I have no idea why the guidance likes to press the cold boundary too much in the long ranges in this type of pattern...but they do, and they do it again and again and again.  I am not sticking my head in that door to have it slammed in my face again!

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That storm is a cutter on ALL other guidance right now so did we really have any actual expectations pinned on that?  The GFS just had one run with a hiccup like that one Euro run a couple days ago.  I guess the fact they both had the same hiccup means that idea of the h5 cutting under is there as a possible solutions if the 50/50 goes ape but the fact it's only shown up on those 2 op runs out of the last dozen or so across all guidance, with almost no ensemble support...means its an extremely low probability with a cutter by far the most likely solution.  

Dang....so we gotta throw that out too? And now we're down to the last two weeks of February? Well that sucks...hope we have something to track by this time next week. Starting to get depressing...

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang....so now we're down to the last two weeks of February? Well that sucks...hope we have something to track by this time next week. Starting to get depressing...

We were always down to the last 2 weeks of February. Anything next week is a bonus or because of a faster reaction to the soi crashing or mjo speeding up into phase 8.

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang....so now we're down to the last two weeks of February? Well that sucks...hope we have something to track by this time next week. Starting to get depressing...

About a week ago I said Feb 20 on based on the timing of the progression in the Pacific.  I tried NOT to crap on the period before that as the guidance looked "hopeful" and some were excited but I never jumped in because frankly I have seen this same pattern fail so many freaking times before I just can't bring myself to try to kick that same football again.  Sometimes they do work, it's not the worst shutout pattern there is, flukes can happen...but I was never that excited UNTIL... we get some stable blocking and the boundary shifts south more.  The trough axis is just way too far west right now without blocking to have a good chance.  I really really really hope I am wrong and next week trends into a snowy winter wonderland.  I am still optimistic after.  I have seen nothing on the pattern drivers this time to indicate the train is coming off the rails like I did back in Mid January yet.  I am not going to get too caught up in run to run variance in the long range guidance, until I see a sign the MJO/SOI is going to fail I am leaning on that and sticking too it.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

About a week ago I said Feb 20 on based on the timing of the progression in the Pacific.  I tried NOT to crap on the period before that as the guidance looked "hopeful" and some were excited but I never jumped in because frankly I have seen this same pattern fail so many freaking times before I just can't bring myself to try to kick that same football again.  Sometimes they do work, it's not the worst shutout pattern there is, flukes can happen...but I was never that excited UNTIL... we get some stable blocking and the boundary shifts south more.  The trough axis is just way too far west right now without blocking to have a good chance.  I really really really hope I am wrong and next week trends into a snowy winter wonderland.  I am still optimistic after.  I have seen nothing on the pattern drivers this time to indicate the train is coming off the rails like I did back in Mid January yet.  I am not going to get too caught up in run to run variance in the long range guidance, until I see a sign the MJO/SOI is going to fail I am leaning on that and sticking too it.  

Will be in the UK when things start looking good... at least that is what I think now.

 

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53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I learned that from Matt many years ago. He's said many times we will struggle with storm track and ptype more often than not in any PDO phase except +. We can go down the rabbit hole of what drives what and such but at the end of the day, when a large area of AN SSTAs exist off the coast of Japan it's not a good sign here. 

Going off memory but I'm pretty much 100% sure that any nino of any strength that produced well here had a +PDO on the DJF means. I never liked seeing the state of the PDO in Nov and Dec but every damn long ranger went snowy in the east so I mostly discounted it. Never again man. Never again. 

I considered the less then ideal PDO in the fall as well...but 2 things threw me for a loop.  There is a bit of a conflicting signal there, with the warm pool near the PAC NW coast and some "cooler" waters to the west...but yea that warm pool east of Japan was no good.  But I wasn't sure how hostile it would be.  A lot of predictions thought the PDO might end up weakly positive.  The other was the fact there were 2 -PDO winters in the analogs and they were near the top, and both were epic.  1964 and 1966.  In hindsight the -NAO of that decade probably makes using those years as analogs a mistake.  You are right that if we throw out the 1950s and 1960's that since 1970 EVERY nino that was good had a positive PDO.  OOPS...live and learn.  

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Will be in the UK when things start looking good... at least that is what I think now.

 

Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?

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Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?
All i see is cutters thru 384

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22 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

We were always down to the last 2 weeks of February. Anything next week is a bonus or because of a faster reaction to the soi crashing or mjo speeding up into phase 8.

 

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

About a week ago I said Feb 20 on based on the timing of the progression in the Pacific.  I tried NOT to crap on the period before that as the guidance looked "hopeful" and some were excited but I never jumped in because frankly I have seen this same pattern fail so many freaking times before I just can't bring myself to try to kick that same football again.  Sometimes they do work, it's not the worst shutout pattern there is, flukes can happen...but I was never that excited UNTIL... we get some stable blocking and the boundary shifts south more

But looking at our history...Just how many solid (that is, 6" or more) events come after President's Day week? Not many from my recollection...(and early March isn't reliable--not out of the question, but not reliable) not for the corridor, anyway. Most of the hits came between mid-January and...February 20th (and not many after that). So unless we get a parade of storms the week after next...having to wait that long might not be good down here.

Edit: Okay, let's say 5" or more :P

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2 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

In the good winters we can manage 2 or 3...or we can get one big hit. All the winters that BWI measured 20" or more had at least one or the other.

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?

All i see is cutters thru 384

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking?  But its just one run, the GEFS is jumpy, 6z was a great run.  I guess I will wait.  Looked at the MSLP and Convection in the PAC and both still indicate severely -SOI and MJO phase 1 towards the end so not sure why it degraded the pattern.  This will go down as one of the worst epic fails ever for my specific location if we finally get the MJO and SOI to cooperate and somehow don't get the typical positive response after they muted our nino pattern all winter long.  

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This is an abnormal winter. It's been very wet. Just need to time the cold and wet.

2015 we had like 3 8" snows in a row or something in late February/March.

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9 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

I expect 1/year on average.

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30 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

How many solid 6" or more events do we get ever in winter is a better question

That is highly variable.  For my location I have always had at least 1, but I have had a couple years with only 1.  The most I have had in a single season is 7 I believe.  

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@Bob Chill  I didn't like the mslp and h5 look on the 12z GEFS but the snow mean looked good so I decided to look into just how bad the algorithm is screwing it up.  I really bad.  E9 for instance gives me 6" of snow day 11 from a storm that cuts to Chicago and the precip type algorithm says I get maybe a few hours of ice then rain...  There are others.  In reality the GEFS has almost unanimous support of the op with cutter after cutter after cutter through day 15.  Yet somehow it "sees" snow on that mean map.  In some cases its not even ice...its 34 degree rain and gets counted as snow.  Its seriously off and those maps are completely useless.  We knew that already but its worse than I thought.  

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27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking? 

It's pretty amazing how the models flip and flop every 6 hours. Barely any consistency ever. Nightly model runs always change by the AM.  The AM changes at 12z. 

I mean in the old days, like last year, LOL we would get 4 to 7 days of crap runs  at a  times then switch to 5 or more days showing a great pattern. It has been a long time since  I have seen the models with such an eratic behavior. 

Also of note, besides JB. , most long range forecasters have remained rather quiet.     

I am already thinking about the consequences for the summer if we never really get cold again in terms of Atlantic SSTs.   

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill  I didn't like the mslp and h5 look on the 12z GEFS but the snow mean looked good so I decided to look into just how bad the algorithm is screwing it up.  I really bad.  E9 for instance gives me 6" of snow day 11 from a storm that cuts to Chicago and the precip type algorithm says I get maybe a few hours of ice then rain...  There are others.  In reality the GEFS has almost unanimous support of the op with cutter after cutter after cutter through day 15.  Yet somehow it "sees" snow on that mean map.  In some cases its not even ice...its 34 degree rain and gets counted as snow.  Its seriously off and those maps are completely useless.  We knew that already but its worse than I thought.  

The GEFS are worthless. I've been saying this for awhile now. They swing too wildly and they always overinflate snow totals by huge margins.

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

It's pretty amazing how the models flip and flop every 6 hours. Barely any consistency ever. Nightly model runs always change by the AM.  The AM changes at 12z. 

I mean in the old days, like last year, LOL we would get 4 to 7 days of crap runs  at a  times then switch to 5 or more days showing a great pattern. It has been a long time since  I have seen the models with such an eratic behavior. 

Also of note, besides JB. , most long range forecasters have remained rather quiet.     

I am already thinking about the consequences for the summer if we never really get cold again in terms of Atlantic SSTs.   

I am not going to react much to one GEFS run.  But some of the changes happen early on.  Yesterday there was a serious move towards some hard core blocking around day 9/10.  That is just gone all of a sudden on the GEFS.  That isn't day 15.  Let's see what the EPS has to say soon.  If the EPS abandons the blocking again then I might be more inclined to worry.  

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OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh192-240.thumb.gif.c747ec3e17e41f603d8d83c08722d0c1.gif

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh192-240.thumb.gif.c747ec3e17e41f603d8d83c08722d0c1.gif

Man I hope so...I HOPE we are tracking a legit threat inside of d7 by the middle of next week.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Can you get them to turn all their fans to face the NW and blow that ridge up into the NAO space for us?

I will do what I can! One of the people on my team tends to blow a lot of hot air. I will make sure to point him in the right direction!

:D

 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Pretty uninspiring 12zGEFS run.  Totally lost the blocking in the long range.  Does press the boundary south some and get us cold day 12 on but do we have any optimism the boundary would hold south of us when a wave approaches with a -PNA and no blocking?  But its just one run, the GEFS is jumpy, 6z was a great run.  I guess I will wait.  Looked at the MSLP and Convection in the PAC and both still indicate severely -SOI and MJO phase 1 towards the end so not sure why it degraded the pattern.  This will go down as one of the worst epic fails ever for my specific location if we finally get the MJO and SOI to cooperate and somehow don't get the typical positive response after they muted our nino pattern all winter long.  

That would really be the icing on the cake for many areas in the east that were expecting a good winter...  I did this post on twitter by Jason Furtado:

Upcoming paper by my grad student shows what is almost exactly projected by the models for mid-Feb. The MJO 7+8 pattern with a weak stratospheric polar vortex promotes more SE US ridging and a SW/NE trough orientation from the Rockies into central Canada. 1/2

Does look similar to the crap trough access we see, personally I'm not sure there is enough data to back this up. What we are seeing is more likely just be the typical lag effect of the MJO. It did spend a decent amount of time at a strong amplitude in 6/7 so one would think it may take some time to get things right after that. I'm still hoping we will just see big changes pop up in the day 8-10 period on models once the favorable MJO forcing gets closer in time and quickly moves forward in time. Problem is time is running short if we have to wait until 3rd week of Feb.

If the weather directly following a snow mitigates any need to go out and shovel or ability to take my kids out to play in it my enjoyment of said event is greatly reduced. Obviously the later you get in the season the more likely that outcome becomes.

 

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK today has kind of sucked WRT guidance so far so I will try to post something optimistic...

I could see how we end up with a big storm from this progression after day 10.  The system cutting through the lakes is going to get stuck under the block in the 50/50 space...that energy coming through California swings east under the block and... maybe 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh192-240.thumb.gif.c747ec3e17e41f603d8d83c08722d0c1.gif

So we had been ticking closer....11 days....then 10.....then we were within 9 days....and yesterday day 8. But we pushed things back to day 10+ is where we're at again? 

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