CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I've been waffling on whether to give up on President's Day weekend (or a day or two after)...I mean, does threat have any reasonable chance to NOT be a cutter? That is a period where the snow mean increases on the GEFS. The low looks deeper and more coastal on the mean this run. Some sort of miller B deal probably. Its still over a week away, so plenty of time for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Its sort of inverted from what we want lol. There really is no block, just transient ridging in front of the low. It still likely tracks inland, but the GEFS gives a glimmer of hope. The lead wave next weekend is a lost cause. It’s cutting and there is nothing to hold cold in with the war. But there is some support for the idea of the trough digging in and something pops on the coast behind it. After that the long range is a mix of wildly different solutions. The only commonality is it’s wet. But there is some “fake snow” cutters, some real snow hits and some southern sliders. Still more cutters than I like to see but more real hits than recent runs. Net positive imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 @C.A.P.E. the worst member gives me 6.5”. Throwing out the 3 worst as “outliers” the worst of the other 17 is 10”! Shame the gefs is really worthless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: The lead wave next weekend is a lost cause. It’s cutting and there is nothing to hold cold in with the war. But there is some support for the idea of the trough digging in and something pops on the coast behind it. After that the long range is a mix of wildly different solutions. The only commonality is it’s wet. But there is some “fake snow” cutters, some real snow hits and some southern sliders. Still more cutters than I like to see but more real hits than recent runs. Net positive imo. I agree. The GFS hinted on the 12z run. There is something there on the GEFS, with a range of possibilities advertised on the members for that time frame. Good to see some flatter solutions in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I agree. The GFS hinted on the 12z run. There is something there on the GEFS, with a range of possibilities advertised on the members for that time frame. Good to see some flatter solutions in the mix. Op euro has an “incoming” look day 9. Wave in the plains. Cold high to the north. Boundary to our south. Confluence with the departing cutter in a good spot to hold in the northerly flow. Maybe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Op euro has an “incoming” look day 9. Wave in the plains. Cold high to the north. Boundary to our south. Confluence with the departing cutter in a good spot to hold in the northerly flow. Maybe... Yeah was just looking at that. At least between the globals we have chances showing up, even if they aren't necessarily keying on the same ones. Long way off and perhaps a bit more uncertainty than typical with the MJO and SOI stuff happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nope cuts lol. Does look like it would have have frozen but it’s way too similar to this week. Blocking breaks down, 50/50 leaves, storm cuts west as eastern ridge returns. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Op euro has an “incoming” look day 9. Wave in the plains. Cold high to the north. Boundary to our south. Confluence with the departing cutter in a good spot to hold in the northerly flow. Maybe... Primary still sucks but who cares. It's a half decent looking window on the ensembles and the euro op is close to something great. I'm still not paying close attention to anything beyond a week. Volatile times with conflicting signals means you can't toss or hug anything specific. I'm not even comparing trends right now. It's a waste of brain power. I still feel very good about additional snowfall over the next month or so. I'll let it come to me instead of hunting in the deep woods chasing specifics 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Primary still sucks but who cares. It's a half decent looking window on the ensembles and the euro op is close to something great. I'm still not paying close attention to anything beyond a week. Volatile times with conflicting signals means you can't toss or hug anything specific. I'm not even comparing trends right now. It's a waste of brain power. I still feel very good about additional snowfall over the next month or so. I'll let it come to me instead of hunting in the deep woods chasing specifics I have a feeling the SE ridge isn’t totally derived from forcing in the pac. Even when the trough shifts east it gets shunted over the ridge and then the ridge flexes again. Something else might be the problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Let's be honest...GEFS/EPS look great every 2 days with suckage in between. It's tiring and it's always 10 days away. Rapidly losing faith at this point. Might just be a bad mood day, but I'm just tired of all of this. DC has had a foot and will probably make average, which is decent enough for me. I'm pretty close to writing the next week or two off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: You didn’t get a warning criteria snow in March in 2014, 2015, and last year??? That’s 3 of the last 5. Last year didn't count for me because it was under 5 inches (measured 3, officially 4.8 at BWI). And I only slightly recall 14' and 15' for whatever reason, lol Regardless...I would rather not have to gamble on March (but you have more chips to gamble with...elevation chips! ). But as it looks...PD weekend-20th may have to be the period that delivers (unless we buck history, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nope cuts lol. Does look like it would have have frozen but it’s way too similar to this week. Blocking breaks down, 50/50 leaves, storm cuts west as eastern ridge returns. Ugh I guess that’s the pattern upcoming retreating cold and cutters. Is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I guess that’s the pattern upcoming retreating cold and cutters. Is what it is Might happen that way, might not. That's part of the fun of this. We really don't know, until we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Might happen that way, might not. That's part of the fun of this. We really don't know, until we do. Hey, as long as the door is still open at this point, that's enough to keep me following this...particularly given the date range, lol At least that's something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is a period where the snow mean increases on the GEFS. The low looks deeper and more coastal on the mean this run. Some sort of miller B deal probably. Its still over a week away, so plenty of time for adjustments. Eps hits day 10-12 pretty good with snowfall. 10-15 overall is pretty high. 3-4.5” across the area mean. That’s really high for just day 10-15 when spread tends to limit snowfall on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Euro control says we get a happy ending. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps hits day 10-12 pretty good with snowfall. 10-15 overall is pretty high. 3-4.5” across the area mean. That’s really high for just day 10-15 when spread tends to limit snowfall on the mean. Did Wes use to say when the mean is 6 inches that is when you can start believing until not worthwhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Hey, as long as the door is still open at this point, that's enough to keep me following this...particularly given the date range, lol Unless the pattern is clearly a shutout, the door remains open until mid March, when climo begins to get increasingly hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, frd said: Did Wes use to say when the mean is 6 inches that is when you can start believing until not worthwhile I think that’s true for the GEFS. Eps is more stingy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control says we get a happy ending. First time in forever seeing areas South of us in the game, that might be a good signal there, IMHO. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps hits day 10-12 pretty good with snowfall. 10-15 overall is pretty high. 3-4.5” across the area mean. That’s really high for just day 10-15 when spread tends to limit snowfall on the mean. 12z GEFS likes that period as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Ok I’m not going to make too much of it but the pattern drivers have said this time period feb 20+ was when to watch and after only subtle hints and false starts both gefs and eps just hit that time period hard 12z with a clear signal. No tea leaves needed. Let’s see if it holds in future runs and maybe we have something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GEFS likes that period as well. You 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: Did Wes use to say when the mean is 6 inches that is when you can start believing until not worthwhile 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think that’s true for the GEFS. Eps is more stingy. Yes...eps isn’t underdispersed so it’s really hard to get a mean just from day 10-15 that high. It is over 6” the whole 15 days. But just day 10-15...I’ve never seen it. It’s ~4” here. That’s about as good as you ever get day 10-15. Eps and gefs both honked. But we need to see consistency. It was a good step. And encouraging that it happened as the period we’ve been watching comes into the day 10 range when guidance has adjusted for the mjo all year. Maybe it’s legit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 My timing with key posts has improved dramatically lately. I got game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 That control run is sweet...but what's more impressive than the snow totals is the fact that it gets 3 dif systems under us in the D10-15. Ind members started to pick up on the same theme. Let's hope this is a shift from the relentless cutter idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: First time in forever seeing areas South of us in the game, that might be a good signal there, IMHO. I’ve been tracking this stat. Again the Eps has 15 members that miss us to the south with snow day 10-15. Less than miss north! I count about 14 flush hits. Another 10 decent snowfalls. Only a few misses north and some that suppress everything and are dry. That kind of spread is what you expect on an ensemble day 10-15 and why you never see mean snowfall on the eps that high. But the obvious tone is definitely good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve been tracking this stat. Again the Eps has 15 members that miss us to the south with snow day 10-15. Less than miss north! I count about 14 flush hits. Another 10 decent snowfalls. Only a few misses north and some that suppress everything and are dry. That kind of spread is what you expect on an ensemble day 10-15 and why you never see mean snowfall on the eps that high. But the obvious tone is definitely good. Agree, and like poolz mentioned above, thats a real good thing. Shows some blocking and slowing and colder outcomes as well. I like that look. HM mentioned this with his series on wave breaking and the NAO, the slowing traffic and I imagine beginnings of a convoluted North Atlantic maybe, also help no doubt to a degree from a improving Pac. With the lag effect from hopfully better phases og the MJO. Like to see phase 8 and love to see progression to 1. Please no back tracks to 7 or diminshing orbits. If all goes well, maybe money time . With the winter we have had so for I want that money with Mafia interest too ! ( no offense to my Italiano clan in South Philly........ YO ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Good news DT just canceled the second half of February 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Good news DT just canceled the second half of February Great now if JB would too we can sit back and await our HECS 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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