Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Can't tell if this is the long range thread or the banter thread...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 @psuhoffman Don S has really given up it seems. After that, there remains uncertainty. Even as some of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range. The risks of a delayed return to Atlantic blocking have recently increased. During neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the MJO's being in Phase 7 at a high amplitude has often coincided with a positive AO. The latest GEFS guidance has suggested that the AO+, once it develops, could persist beyond mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 weekly anomalies centered around January 30 were +1.0°C and +0.3°C respectively. Three of the past four weeks have seen ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies below +0.50°C. In short, basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions currently prevail. Such conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in cities such as New York and Philadelphia. Since 1950, there were just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I hope you can make it happen. I wish I could. Stick me in Bennington VT or somewhere close and I'd be a happy guy. Bennington is actually in kind of a snow shadow. I’ve been up there during snowstorms where the mountains get 15” and Bennington had like 6”. All the valley cities get some downslope but it’s worse there. Rutland isn’t as bad and Montpelier is much better for big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman Don S has really given up it seems. The ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 weekly anomalies centered around January 30 were +1.0°C and +0.3°C respectively. Three of the past four weeks have seen ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies below +0.50°C. In short, basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions currently prevail. Such conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in cities such as New York and Philadelphia. Since 1950, there were just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall. Lol he is so specific though how many analogs does he leave himself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can't tell if this is the long range thread or the banter thread...lol It’s the depressed weenie thread. Welcome. Imagine if we still had the despair index it would be rather elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks nice , lets keep getting looks like this. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Looks nice , lets keep getting looks like this. . I think all 384 panels should contraband on these threads for the remainder of the winter...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think all 384 panels should contraband on these threads for the remainder of the winter...lol I agree in principle. But holy Jesus that is a cold CONUS map. Click on the 2m temp anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can't tell if this is the long range thread or the banter thread...lol Oh thanks for reminding me. I still have a bone to pick with you about that “we don’t get 12” storms the last week of February” nonsense. First of all do you realize how rare those are? Baltimore has only had 20 12”+ snowstorms in recorded history. That’s an average of one every 7 years! Or 3 in a 20 year period. That’s way too small a sample size to get meaningful results of a snowfall distribution study. There are lots of weeks that haven’t had 12”+ storms. But Baltimore has had 3 10” storms that week. Those are rare too at only an average of 2 every 10 years! 11” February 21 1929. 10.8” February 20th 1947 and 10.1” February 23 1987. On top of that we have had a ton of warning events that week including a 6” snow in 2015 and a 5” storm in 2005. I know there was an 8” storm at bwi that week in 1966 that was probably more where you are because it was 10”+ northwest of the 95. We have had plenty of snow the last week of February just not an HECS but that’s true of lots of weeks and it’s just a statistical anomaly not a predictor. We have had 5 HECS storms within 48 hours of that week on either side!!! It’s just luck. Some weeks have had several 12”+ and some have had none. If anything it means we are due. Your worrying about nothing!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, frd said: Looks nice , lets keep getting looks like this. . But DT and Don just cancelled winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 So Don S and DT gave up today. The inverse expectations model has perfomed brilliantly this winter. Time to dust off our shovels and snowblowers cuz it's about to get real here not too far down the road. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So Don S and DT gave up today. The inverse expectations model has perfomed brilliantly this winter. Time to dust off our shovels and snowblowers cuz it's about to get real here not too far down the road. I love that they give up on the day guidance starts to show real signs of getting good. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But DT and Don just cancelled winter!!! And the ground hog. Don’t forget him. They are in good company. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I agree in principle. But holy Jesus that is a cold CONUS map. Click on the 2m temp anomaly. Participating in this hobby and this forum is 100% optional. I expect every good looking op, ensemble, or seasonal model to be posted until climo slams the door shut. If someone doesn't like long range model posts then the easiest solution is to 1) don't open this thread and 2) don't look at long range models. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 @C.A.P.E. holy crap did you see the 18z gefs? I thought 12z was a weenie run. It’s similar with the trough progression but this run it went crazy with blocking on top. I know it’s just one run and the gefs is jumpy as F but in the last 24 hours the good runs are starting to outnumber the bad ones again. And it’s right as the period we’ve been watching comes into range the guidance has “seen” better all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Participating in this hobby and this forum is 100% optional. I expect every good looking op, ensemble, or seasonal model to be posted until climo slams the door shut. If someone doesn't like long range model posts then the easiest solution is to 1) don't open this thread and 2) don't look at long range models. I get the hesitation. And I’m not going to make more out of it than it is. But the weenie looks are starting to pile up today and that’s how it needs to start if this is going to happen. We will know in.....(you know). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. holy crap did you see the 18z gefs? I thought 12z was a weenie run. It’s similar with the trough progression but this run it went crazy with blocking on top. I know it’s just one run and the gefs is jumpy as F but in the last 24 hours the good runs are starting to outnumber the bad ones again. And it’s right as the period we’ve been watching comes into range the guidance has “seen” better all winter. Starting around Feb. 20 still? I am trying to get the good looks to move closer in time for a change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: I get the hesitation. And I’m not going to make more out of it than it is. But the weenie looks are starting to pile up today and that’s how it needs to start if this is going to happen. We will know in.....(you know). I've not once in the last few weeks felt like it was over. Quite the opposite. Been feeling good about getting at least 1 more warning level storm. Maybe 2 or 3. Could be zero but I really doubt it. Pac is active AF and the southern stream is playing along. 85% of our winter qpf is rain and that's years where we hit climo. Seeing rainstorms on guidance never bothers me because it's completely normal and expected to get mostly rain nearly every single year. We could get 3 gully washing raimstorms in a row and all of a sudden get destroyed shortly after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Starting around Feb. 20 still? I am trying to get the good looks to move closer in time for a change... Cold blasts in on the 17th and we’re an icebox the rest of the way. 17th 20th 23rd 25th Blocking isn’t way out there either. Starts to develop ~the 17th and gets stronger to the end 17th 20th 25th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Excellent. I am now invested in getting a KU in what I am terming the ji/maestro window of KU futility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Excellent. I am now invested in getting a KU in what I am terming the ji/maestro window of KU futility. And I haven't given up on President's Day (or the 19th, haha) yet!! A historical showdown for the ages...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I love that they give up on the day guidance starts to show real signs of getting good. Lol Can't blame them. I compare it the stock market, buy low , sell high . Those stating no more significant snow might be selling at a poor price. I would not short winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Think Don S only said the chance for big storms is small doesn't mean he doesn't think more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Gotta move to New England. NE PA would work or NW NJ. Living here is painful if you like snow. We have little margin for error. Other than the snow I like it here in the MA. Ditto but worse for us in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: So Don S and DT gave up today. The inverse expectations model has perfomed brilliantly this winter. Time to dust off our shovels and snowblowers cuz it's about to get real here not too far down the road. Don t know enough to care about DT, but Don S spooks me. Or would if I hadn't thrown the towel in for my area two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Ditto but worse for us in the SE. No argument with that. You guys have the patience of a monk in handcuffs. Yet you forge on looking for anything frozen. Hats off to all of you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 This forum has been hacked lol Here's my take.. the end of the 18z GFS ensembles looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Analogs +PNA is really trying to show up with this OLR forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: @C.A.P.E. holy crap did you see the 18z gefs? I thought 12z was a weenie run. It’s similar with the trough progression but this run it went crazy with blocking on top. I know it’s just one run and the gefs is jumpy as F but in the last 24 hours the good runs are starting to outnumber the bad ones again. And it’s right as the period we’ve been watching comes into range the guidance has “seen” better all winter. I was out for a bit but damn. Biggest difference is in the NA, but also more ridging out west with Pac undercutting. That's pretty. Hopefully that look sticks at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm bored so.... at 168 the GFS might be setting something up. Way less ridging in the plains as the next system ejects and the departing cutter has caved out a deeper trough to our north. Given the spacing and such it would be pretty hard for that next system to cut from where it is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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