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Ji

The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Before I open this can of whoop a$$ let me first say I appreciate your input so don't take this the wrong way but.....

Why are you comparing the day 10 EPS to the day 16 GFS?

Why are you cherry picking the one very brief period where the WAR pops up as a transient period on the EPS?  Its gone again soon after and by day 15 there is a monster 50/50 signal again

Some people can have more than one train of thought at the same time.  It's possible to discuss both the threats within the next 10 days AND the period after 10 days.  One does not necessary detract from the other.  

There are many times (90%) when your snow climo isnt THAT far off from most of this sub.  HOWEVER, a -EPO/-PNA pattern with no blocking is NOT one of them.  Your chances the next 10 days are significantly better according to climo than most of this sub.  You can win with that look...its much harder for DC to win with a SE ridge without NAO blocking...so maybe there is a regional reason some on here are "looking" ahead to a possible period of better blocking.  Places south and east of DC are very unlikely to score a significant snowstorm in a -PNA without blocking.

This is the EPS day 15 which is a more fair comp to the GFS day 16 panel you posted

EPS15.thumb.png.b5f41fe19459e38d68075216043afe78.png

.... which the guidance has been trending towards for a while now...and I suspect that SE ridge will continue to get muted more and more if the NAO look is correct (all guidance trending towards that) and the soi/mjo signal is correct.  There is absolutely no basis for a strong SE ridge if we have a -soi, phase 8/1 MJO, and a -NAO/EPO.  The weather never ceases to amaze me so anything is possible but if those other signals are correct the boundary will end up south of us in that pattern.  

None of that means we cannot score before that.  The threats next week have my attention, especially the one towards next weekend.  BUT... for those of us south of you the more blocking we get, the further south we can drive the boundary, the better our chances to score.  This week has opportunity but its flawed and history suggests we end up on the wrong side most of the time in this type of pattern.  Add nao blocking and suddenly history suggest we win.  Those are just the probabilities based on climo and analogs.  imageproxy.php?img=&key=20fe2b78d4e66dff

 

Great write up psu.

I was wondering about the 240 WAR he was speaking about in light of the tellies that are arguing against it.  your 360 snapshot mutes that argument for sure.

It will be nice in the next few days to hopefully start to see more consistency in the LR as we get to a more favorable/stable regime winter wise.  Current regime has been stable mind you...but not in a good way.  Cutting is a bad habit.

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LOL at how the MJO is still the driver here...  The GEFS looks less favorable day 6-9 because it keeps the MJO is phase 7.  The Euro gets into 8 and looks better.  Then the Euro crashes the MJO for a couple days and that is exactly when the SE ridge pops back up...before the MJO goes into 1 and the trough starts to shift east again at the same time.  

mjodead.gif.3cf2be682a04c1ded5313a762c85d9e8.gif

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Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away.  Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well.  Everything is still progressing.  We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January.   I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good.  But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real.  

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Start of the SOI crash looks to be 3 days away.  Tropical convection looks to align perfectly in the central pac starting in a few days as well.  Everything is still progressing.  We are crossing inside the time period where it evaporated the last time this SOI/MJO look was showing up in mid January.   I am not sure that dip in the MJO on the euro is real... it may be, but as long as it is only temporary and the wave progresses into 1 after we will be good.  But none of the other guidance has a deamplification there so I am not even confident its real.  

Does the CFS have the dip?

If not,  maybe the Euro will adjust. Look at the last four days how the Euro has shifted.  

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@psuhoffman    can you commnet on this ?    Good or bad?    I would think good , but I have a head cold and cant think this morning. I hope you are having a better day then me. 

This is 33andrain and webbweather 

The GFS might be a bit overdone but I think we could see a gigantic WWB near the dateline next week as an Equatorial Rossby Wave interferes w/ the lowpass ENSO signal. We're at that time of the year where ENSO is most receptive to high frequency noise like this, granted you can clearly see this isn't just fleeting noise anymore w/ the 3rd legitimate 150E-180E WWB in the past month.

 

2044758608_ScreenShot2019-02-07at10_25_13AM.png.ca965211abdf2d5ffaef79de19acdb98.png

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

Does the CFS have the dip?

If not,  maybe the Euro will adjust. Look at the last four days how the Euro has shifted.  

No...

CFS.gif.3143fc7e69a8dba3a3d8ed1b0309b5b5.gif

I am skeptical of that temporary dip on the eps mjo.  BUT...even if its real so long as its not the start of the permanent wave de-amplification we would be ok.  I was just pointing out that it is not a coincidence that when the EPS goes into phase 8 the trough gets into the east...then the mjo wave dies for 3/4 days and the trough retrogrades into the west...then the MJO wave spikes into Phase 1 and suddenly the NAO tanks and the trough shifts east.  The other guidance takes the MJO into phase 7 instead of 8 day 6-10 and so it keeps the trough axis further west during that time.  It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it.   

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's pretty apparent that the MJO is still driving the pattern here, or in this case, driving the models interpretation of it.   

It been unrelenting this winter, simply incredible. We MUST get that MJO to move it phase  8 and then 1 without any issues this time. 

If you believe the modeling this is the best combination of factors so far to achieve that needed result with the MJO.   

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21 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman    can you commnet on this ?    Good or bad?    I would think good , but I have a head cold and cant think this morning. I hope you are having a better day then me. 

This is 33andrain and webbweather 

The GFS might be a bit overdone but I think we could see a gigantic WWB near the dateline next week as an Equatorial Rossby Wave interferes w/ the lowpass ENSO signal. We're at that time of the year where ENSO is most receptive to high frequency noise like this, granted you can clearly see this isn't just fleeting noise anymore w/ the 3rd legitimate 150E-180E WWB in the past month.

 

2044758608_ScreenShot2019-02-07at10_25_13AM.png.ca965211abdf2d5ffaef79de19acdb98.png

 

 

 

If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing.  

One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal.  First of all it's been muted all season.  Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold.  I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso.  

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we can get it east of the dateline (as it seems to be heading there) it would be a good thing.  

One thing I continue to see and that just confounds me, is this implication that we need something to mute the nino signal.  First of all it's been muted all season.  Second, a weak to moderate basin wide or central nino is NOT a hostile signal for eastern CONUS cold.  I thought we were past the time when people just plastered the super nino climo onto every +enso.  

Good points. Yeah, not sure the point here.  He has posted 6 weeks this could be a two year event and then this post.  I mean this is a pathetic Nino so far.

 

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

Good points. Yeah, not sure the point here.  He has posted 6 weeks this could be a two year event and then this post.  I mean this is a pathetic Nino so far.

 

It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year.  So long as it's not a super nino that would be great.  There are no signs right now of a super nino.  USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. 

If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way.  As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine.  The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nina years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina.  

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way.  As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine.  The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nino years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina.  

You meant to say nina, right?

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The GFS op might be the weeniest run of the year, wave after wave west to east under us with 1040 high pressures to our north... and it highlights how the day 10 eastern ridge might not even be a problem.

Yea there are higher heights in the east because of the -PNA but look at the blocking up top and the 50/50, nothing is cutting in that pattern

uptop.thumb.png.234e5c61b61255bed59c1bb22af09eb3.png

and it leads to this...we will overcome a -PNA with that pattern up top.  Actually with that pattern up top we WANT a -PNA or else it would be congrats Jacksonville.  

uptopfinal.thumb.png.9918ec9e6b6638a9a22f338a681c4fbd.png

As for SE ridge, look at the h5 heights

Warmh5.thumb.png.bbb818bcc811b28f7fdff059c91b8eb2.png

But look at the surface the same time  

surface.thumb.png.eb3b42d7568b7d59a104d7403b523b17.png

This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge.  If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north.  

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year.  So long as it's not a super nino that would be great.  There are no signs right now of a super nino.  USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. 

If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way.  As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine.  The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nino years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina.  

I know people laugh at what I am going to say here next,  but take my word on this that both HM and Isotherm use eruptions of volcanoes greater than VEI 3 in determining the NA pattern, as they effect blocking and the HL.  I think we are going to see some effects of all the recent activity manifest itself somehow. Would love a HM post just on this element. He mentioned it not long ago comparing winters, I know he has brought this up several times in the past 2 or 3 months. 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge.  If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north.  

 

Been noticing the trend for higher mb High pressure centers moving West to East, I like !!!  

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15 minutes ago, frd said:

I know people laugh at what I am going to say here next,  but take my word on this that both HM and Isotherm use eruptions of volcanoes greater than VEI 3 in determining the NA pattern, as they effect blocking and the HL.  I think we are going to see some effects of all the recent activity manifest itself somehow. Would love a HM post just on this element. He mentioned it not long ago comparing winters, I know he has brought this up several times in the past 2 or 3 months. 

 

 

 

I don't laugh at that... I don't understand the cause/effect relationship well enough to add much but I don't laugh at things I don't understand.  As far as the blocking... we are due for another -NAO period.  We had a period of blocking in the late 1800s and again around the middle of the last century and we are due for another.  If/when that happens some of the assumptions about certain other influences will change.  For instance, a nina wasn't necessarily a bad thing during the -nao periods.  We have had some pretty good nina winters when the nao was negative.  

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25 minutes ago, frd said:

Been noticing the trend for higher mb High pressure centers moving West to East, I like !!!  

It's all about the blocking...get that epo/nao ridge connection across the top along with the 50/50 and it will promote high pressure across southern Canada and the northern CONUS and they will be locked in by the 50/50.  Regardless of the se ridge storms will be forced west to east under the blocking.  

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GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

The trends the last 48 have been impressive,  but based on the events ongoing in the North Atlantic and the Pac,  I could speculate that we may not have even seen the weeniest run yet. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

gefsweenie.thumb.png.a67f4a1de0a955991c1618ae75d1df89.png

gefsweenie2.thumb.png.1699f6bf12d3721bd8b122c10c2def9c.png

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1 minute ago, frd said:

The trends the last 48 have been impressive,  but based on the events ongoing in the North Atlantic and the Pac,  I could speculate that we may not have even seen the weeniest run yet. 

The trends in the models are predictable given the pacific.  We watched the same/inverse trends all winter when the pac forcing was destructive...now it is constructive and we are seeing the positive influence, equally under-estimated by guidance at range.  

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

what you're saying is i should do a backflush on my jeep's heater core sooner than later (just had to replace the radiator and thermostat...fun times).

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS is the weeniest run I've seen this year. Even stronger signal for a repeating pattern with multiple events than yesterday (and I thought yesterday looked really good). Northern tier is looking to be in a prime spot for a fast and furious catchup to climo. 

e12 thinks we both get 40"+ in the next 2 weeks.  

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22 minutes ago, Ji said:

Weeklies 3 weeks ago for today. Screen shots from wxrisk video lol46e6e11e05270c7cd490f83096f229d9.jpg

JB says we go from Feb 94 to Feb 2010 lol

There are some similarities to both "SOME" and I am very on board with the potential...but its just amazing that every pattern he uses the absolute most extreme example 

He jumped the shark years ago when he forecasted some 1" frontal snows and literally said "but it might be the worst 1" snow ever".  

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