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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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1 hour ago, mattskiva said:

Not really buying that.  I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett.  In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions).

This is the kind of setup where Garrett does better than Tucker and it’s mostly due to the fact that Garrett is more north. Go just across Garrett into the next county in PA and it’s the same story there...they’ll get 6-10” vs Garrett 3-6”...latitude helps with this setup. 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This is the kind of setup where Garrett does better than Tucker and it’s mostly due to the fact that Garrett is more north. Go just across Garrett into the next county in PA and it’s the same story there...they’ll get 6-10” vs Garrett 3-6”...latitude helps with this setup. 

All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty.

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28 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty.

I personally hope y'all get a thump of some sort out of this sh*tshow coming over the next two days...you (and the Mason Dixon line folks) deserve it, especially after we in the VA 'burbs south of the District bull-ishly cashed in with 8"-10" of snow last weekend.

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Still looks like it would not take much pressure from the cold air to force a center jump from CRW to se DCA and allow wintry precip to continue in much of this region. It's a steadily deepening low which is good in that the energy will force cold air to flow into the CAD zone. My gut says 1-2" snow followed by sleet, non-accum zr, then back to sleet and a top off of 0.5" snow in a final plunge. SBY could hit 60 while BWI and DCA remain 35-40, IAD 32-35 F. Some thunder with all of the above. While it could have been so much better, at least it's interesting. 

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2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Still looks like it would not take much pressure from the cold air to force a center jump from CRW to se DCA and allow wintry precip to continue in much of this region. It's a steadily deepening low which is good in that the energy will force cold air to flow into the CAD zone. My gut says 1-2" snow followed by sleet, non-accum zr, then back to sleet and a top off of 0.5" snow in a final plunge. SBY could hit 60 while BWI and DCA remain 35-40, IAD 32-35 F. Some thunder with all of the above. While it could have been so much better, at least it's interesting. 

So, which specific areas in our region do you think could see thunder-frozen? Probably my favorite meteorological phenom of all time.

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41 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

All of the short range models except the RGEM like a thump from basically my area up through Garrett. This is one instance where being in a valley would actually help keep the cold air in place. I am on top of a mountain so would expect a changeover pretty quickly here in all honesty.

Yep totally agree on the valley point which is why areas like Frostburg and Cumberland will see a significant amount of ice as they are wedged between the BR and the Allegany front. 

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2 hours ago, mattskiva said:

Not really buying that.  I get the idea that any CAD would scour out more quickly (or never exist at all) at 3200 feet, but we're not talking about CAD with the snow scenario, and even if sea level at that latitude is in the 40s, it seems unlikely that the huge different in elevation would result in so much less accumulation in Tucker than in Garrett.  In the vast majority of scenarios, Canaan sees more accumulation than Garrett (though there are certainly some exceptions).

The central and eastern portion of garrett county hold CAD exceptionally well tbh. Even though they are west of the continental divide the gradual rise of the Allegheny Plateau in this region lends itself well to CAD.

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I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain.  I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this.  Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday  

 

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7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain.  I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this.  Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday  

 

I'm expecting almost all rain. The cold at the surface and mids is really shallow and surface and mid level winds are out of the south. It will take very little to scour out what little cold there is near the cities. This isn't a CAD setup with north winds and cold drain. It basically insitu cad with limited cold at the beginning. 

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I am expecting 98% rain but I also mentioned a few days ago that I didn't think this would be a snow eating 50 degree rainstorm. I currently still have basically full coverage of snow...I anticipate the flash freeze to arrive in time to still have coverage of some sort and not just piles. If it can make it to Sunday that's 7 consecutive days of snow cover which for down here is pretty good.

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About 2" of snow cover left here after a high of 41 today.  Most of the day was foggy and then brightened to hazy toward sunset.  Temp is slowly dropping now under broken skies, a light north wind and a rising barometer.  Really hoping for the forecasted period of snow tomorrow before the change to liquid.

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18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The Nams are toasty. Even out this way. Just not a very cold air mass to start with.

Its 37f with a 32 DP currently.   Hell, forget staying below freezing tomorrow; I dont see how we even get to freezing.  Little perplexed by our forecast for WSW and high of 32 during the "event".

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2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain.  I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this.  Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday  

 

You should sue NWS

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2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m not sure what happened, but the NWS now has us no higher than 34 all weekend in Fairfax. Snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain. We were supposed to be in the 50’s. If this is accurate, we should be under an Advisory at least. I’ve seen many storms here that continues snow and sleet when it was supposed to change to rain.  I won’t be surprised if we stay frozen for much of this.  Even after the rain, a flash freeze on wet roads is going to be a mess on Sunday and Monday  

 

Flash freezes are urban legend.  Not happening.  But fun to imagine.  It will dry out before that happens.  For this I am certain. 

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