MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: GFS would imply a 4-8" front side thump south to north across our area then mixing and another 1-2" on the backside. Great run. Everyone should sign up for that. Now we wait for the Euro to break our hearts and give Boston 3 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: GFS would imply a 4-8" front side thump south to north across our area then mixing and another 1-2" on the backside. Great run. Everyone should sign up for that. Now we wait for the Euro to break our hearts and give Boston 3 feet. Or NC. That’s an impressive hp. Signed up sir. Ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The NS is in almost the perfect spot. It's on the fence about whether it wants to phase or shred, so it does a little of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is the euro is still a disappointment but makes a clear move towards the GFS twins. 12z has the icon, gfs twins, and CMC all looking the same. Usually means the euro meets halfway. lol yea...i describe it as the Euro is the parents who leave their kids unattended for a few hours. Kids go wild for a few hours--then the the parent comes back at 1pm to set things straight:( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GFS has single digits Sunday night and 20s for Monday. It would certainly have that arctic tundra feel that we haven't had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, Fv3 is money. Warning event and all snow. Checking out some Met comments and it appears there is potential based on the upstream action in future runs this could trend South due to the TPV. Maybe a more Mid Atlantic type storm, simply dicussing options. I do like the looks of something this weekend. When the pattern is really primed ( after Jan 24 th this would have turned into a HECS possibly, but is stay weak, pressure-wise, but has a lot of Southern moisture, ala some of the events we do well with. A lot to see later today with the Euro and the EPS and Ukmet. This is only the beginning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS would imply a 4-8" front side thump south to north across our area then mixing and another 1-2" on the backside. Great run. Everyone should sign up for that. Now we wait for the Euro to break our hearts and give Boston 3 feet. your location finally pays off after all these years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, yoda said: And its not some 1030-1032mb HP.... its in the low 1040s on this GFS run Yeah, was thinking the same thing. Good CAD should help down your way and wouldn't take much at all to have you guys jackpotting. Assuming track doesn't vacillate too far (and I wouldnt think it could as HP is coming in stronger) I'd think you guys are money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It may be delayed. The improvement over the old is in question. its like getting a new wife who you find out a week later is way worse than the old wife lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 And just like that the GFS spits out a winning solution. Way earlier interaction over western Kentucky. I would feel a little better with the jump a little further south. But still a long ways to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like Mr./Mrs. @Scud is angling for another timeout I'm just calling in the storm. You guys are 48 hrs behind. It does not matter in reality... Rejoice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 @mappy @H2O @WxUSAF not that my opinion matters either but I would say its time to break this out into its own thread simply so the long range discussion doesn't get totally overwhelmed. Obviously this will be the most discussed thing (rightfully so) now but there is still some pretty good stuff regarding the upcoming pattern to talk about also. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Amped said: The NS is in almost the perfect spot. It's on the fence about whether it wants to phase or shred, so it does a little of both. This is where I wish it was already Thursday or Friday, lol Because you know the models are probably gonna jump around on that for at least the next 3-4 days...I'm wondering though, if what we just saw was the GFS twins is kinda the maximum end of the potential here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 im already over the weekend storm.....really looking forward to this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy @H2O @WxUSAF not that my opinion matters either but I would say its time to break this out into its own thread simply so the long range discussion doesn't get totally overwhelmed. Obviously this will be the most discussed thing (rightfully so) now but there is still some pretty good stuff regarding the upcoming pattern to talk about also. Well we've gone and done it now. Expecting Euro to show partly cloudy and low 40s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Post storm temps are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 anybody have the FVS-GFS data yet? sorry im using TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: anybody have the FVS-GFS data yet? sorry im using TT https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20181205 12 UTC&param=snodpth_chng&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: anybody have the FVS-GFS data yet? sorry im using TT 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Fv3 is a better track. Lighter on the qpf but all snow. I'll gladly take either unreliable gfs. 27 minutes ago, LP08 said: To my eyes....FV3 stays all or mostly snow at DCA. Quicker to the coast. 26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, Fv3 is money. Warning event and all snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Nice.....Well all models agree we have a storm coming, possibly significant.....this Euro Run will be interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @mappy @H2O @WxUSAF not that my opinion matters either but I would say its time to break this out into its own thread simply so the long range discussion doesn't get totally overwhelmed. Obviously this will be the most discussed thing (rightfully so) now but there is still some pretty good stuff regarding the upcoming pattern to talk about also. i made that suggestion already. wxusaf said after 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Anybody got the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Weekend threat discussion needs to go here: unnecessary banter will be removed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Anybody got the Ukie? Looks flatter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, mappy said: Weekend threat discussion needs to go here: unnecessary banter will be removed. I'm shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I have been summoned. I've come for the poster named Scud. 7 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 @40/70 Benchmark after all that crap about "it's not a modoki" region 1+2 cooled and the nino seems to be retreating westward after a peak which is classic modoki progression. Lol there is also some cooling to the north which could help provide the gradient needed 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have been summoned. I've come for the poster named Scud. A little love for an old weatherman... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @40/70 Benchmark after all that crap about "it's not a modoki" region 1+2 cooled and the nino seems to be retreating westward after a peak which is classic modoki progression. Lol there is also some cooling to the north which could help provide the gradient needed Put that on Becky's Twitter account...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Put that on Becky's Twitter account...lol She has a very obvious agenda. I doubt it's going to change her spin at all. As of right now...she has been right about the winter...it has been warm. If we flip cold and snowy she will bust, if we don't she was right (about that) but she has been misrepresenting the enso data in a way to support her warm forecast and to very nastily blast everyone who had a cold forecast and to imply they are hyping and attention seeking. I took some offense to that since I am in the "cold/snowy" contingent but I can ensure you I went with that outlook because I honestly believed based on the analogs I think are most pertinent that it will be cold and snowy from mid January on. If I am wrong I am wrong, but to imply I am just saying that because I want it to be snowy or because I want some kind of attention is presumptuous and unnecessary. She could promote her own forecast without personally attacking everyone who disagrees with her. I feel like I have been very adamant about defending my own belief that things would turn colder, but without once attacking or implying a dishonest motive or doubting the integrity of those that disagree with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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