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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Saw a couple of flakes on the way into downtown Raleigh this morning.  Of course, that's not all that unusual for a drive in. :)

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Interesting temperature outlook:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago

 
 

Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 

D1KXAMwWwAAQEbz.png
D1KXA__X0AAmNe6.png

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6 hours ago, Solak said:

Interesting temperature outlook:

NWSCPCVerified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago

 
 

Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ 

D1KXAMwWwAAQEbz.png
D1KXA__X0AAmNe6.png

Looks like the whole winter summed up in 2 maps! :(

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks like the whole winter summed up in 2 maps! :(

Yeah as long as you put a little blue dot over Seattle :cliff:

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15 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

The models have been horrible all winter with temps and precip. Somebody in the Carolinas will score an inch or two next week, easily!

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

We're due for a hundred year flood if we continue the rain through the summer and get a tropical storm to roll throu.....yikes is all I'm guns say. Next week looks interesting for us mtn folk too. Winter's last gasp probley.

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

We are expected to get some heavy rainfall here in the SW mountains.  No surprise as we are continuing to run well above normal in precipitation this year alone. We are some 4 to 7 inches above normal already. 

As of yesterday; Asheville is 2.5" of rain ahead of last year which was the wettest on record.  I've heard old timers speak of dry spells with stuff called dust that comes from mud.

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2 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

We're due for a hundred year flood if we continue the rain through the summer and get a tropical storm to roll throu.....yikes is all I'm guns say. 

Hunnerd year flud?

We're heading straight for the Old Testament, gather the goats and load the boat if this keeps up.

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2 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Hunnerd year flud?

We're heading straight for the Old Testament, gather the goats and load the boat if this keeps up.

I'll tell my son Noah to build us an ark! 

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You know this season seemed to have so much promise.  We seemed to have all the right players in place.  Most of the experts predicted a rockin January, February and even March.  After sitting pretty during the first week in December, the season never seemed to get back on track.  We were told things would turn around in January.  Then we were told things would turn around in February.  Finally, we were told that March would be our month.

Mercifully, NC State ended the Clemson basketball season today!;)

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Cold November’s always seem to lead to disappointment for the season. They always seem to flip in December and we never get into a decent pattern in the heart of Winter. 

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9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

18Z FV3 close to something for March 21/22...  GFS prefers March 25.

Dont get suckered in man.  Just plant those flowers and move on with spring.

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18Z FV3 close to something for March 21/22...  GFS prefers March 25.

It seems that some models keep randomly popping a storm signal around that time frame... interesting to keep an eye on but will no doubt be an all rain event for 95% to 99% of this sub forum


.
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1 hour ago, SnowJoMoJo said:

image.png.c4786ada0045be422a168da368a73494.png

 

Now that would be funny....

it would likely be correct as its the day we are driving back to danville from melbourne fl. this ish happened last year as we pulled in from spring break to a winter weather advisory and school closed the next day lol

 

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2 hours ago, SnowJoMoJo said:

image.png.c4786ada0045be422a168da368a73494.png

 

Now that would be funny....

I'll eat a piece of a leather shoe if that happens as shown.... As long as I have some A-1 sauce to help off-set the flavor. Hey, it still beef right?

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9 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

There’s a huge halo around the moon tonight, that means still no snow until Jan 2020! :(

I'll see your superstition and raise you,  it thundered yesterday here in the triad.  

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The good news is, it's not a hopeless situation around ENSO and snowfall like it seems. The lack of El Nino-cold and true +PNA in recent Winter's, is not opposite of ENSO state. This is subsurface smoothed average data since 1979: 

enso.png

Notice that although 15-16 was a strong El Nino, and there have been 3 El Nino winter's in the last 6 years, the long term average right now is barely positive. I have determined in research that ENSO subsurface is better correlated with the pattern than the surface. Maybe when the subsurface gets more positive there will true patterns of trough and storminess (09-10 was better than 15-16, and so was 91-95, etc). 

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