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George BM

July Discobs Thread

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4 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

5.04" and still pouring! This is now my rainiest single day ever since moving here!

This event has arguably earned a spot in my "Weather Event of the Decade" poll.

I was just thinking about that.  This is my #2 weather event on the year behind the windstorm.  I’d have to verify tomorrow, but this should be somewhere in the top 3-5 range of total precipitation events since we moved to our house 9 years ago.  Only Lee and Sandy I know are above it.  I think we’ll pass last year’s event.

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Flash Flood Warning
VAC059-510-220345-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0051.180722T0049Z-180722T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
849 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  East central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 849 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the area.
  Up to four inches of rain has already fallen. An additional one to
  three inches is expected. Flash flooding is expected to begin
  shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Arlington, Alexandria, Annandale, Fort Washington, Fort Hunt,
  Groveton, Huntington, Lincolnia, Franconia, Hybla Valley, Lake
  Barcroft, Mount Vernon, Seven Corners, Hayfield, Jefferson Manor
  and Baileys Crossroads.

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5" here, in the area of SE loudoun/catharpin/centreville.  It absolutely poured from noon until about 7.  Still raining but not nearly as hard now.

Image is Braddock Rd near South Riding, a few miles NE of me.

 

37633978_10215880930803771_1945851134069440512_n.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
901 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Montgomery County in central Maryland...

* Until midnight EDT.

* At 900 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the area.
  Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. An additional one
  to three inches of rain is expected. Area creeks and streams
  are rising rapidly. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Germantown, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Olney, Damascus,
  Lowes Island, Aspen Hill, Potomac, North Bethesda, Montgomery
  Village, North Potomac, Redland, Great Falls, Chevy Chase, North
  Kensington, South Kensington, Forest Glen, North Chevy Chase and
  Wheaton-Glenmont.

This includes flood prone locations
Log House Road at Magruder Branch...
Connecticut Avenue just north of the Beltway...
River Road at Cabin John Creek west of the Beltway...
Viers Mill Road at Rock Creek...
Beach Drive along Rock Creek...
and Woodfield Road at Churchill Downs Road.

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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0503&yr=2018

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0503
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
855 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 220054Z - 220654Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CURRENTLY NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER IS
EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN MAGNITUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO PA. 
HOURLY RAIN TOTALS TO 2" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 07Z, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MD & PA.

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE
IN SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT NEAR THE VA CAPES AND EASTERN SHORE.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER IS BEGINNING TO LESSEN IN MAGNITUDE AND
SHIFT SOMEWHAT EASTWARD WITHIN THE TROWAL OF THIS CYCLONE, SHOWING
UP AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS A BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERLY AND
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE 1.6-2.5"
PER GPS VALUES AND THE WALLOPS VA SOUNDING.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25-40 KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS IN THIS REGION, WHICH HAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
INTO A BAND NEAR THE NATION'S CAPITAL.

THE EXPECTATION BASED ON RAP MASS FIELDS IS FOR THE TROWAL TO
MORPH INTO A PRONOUNCED COMMA HEAD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH TIME, SO BELIEVE THAT
THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD EVENT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LONGER DURATION
HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY 07Z AS HOURLY RAIN TOTALS SLOWLY FADE. 
HOWEVER, EVEN BY 07Z, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN TOTALS OVER 1", WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN
URBAN AREAS.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 4" IN MD/PA AND UP TO 2" IN NJ/NEW YORK CITY THROUGH 07Z. 
COMBINED WITH PREVIOUS RAINS, STORM TOTALS OF 6-7" ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MD BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN SHIFTS NORTHWARD/ENDS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   41427629 41317504 41007389 40747363 40357382
            39607409 38987454 38687496 38507551 38197611
            37977654 38557738 39637828 40917798
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My backyard during the heaviest rain earlier - looked, and sounded, very tropical.  Rare to see the sideways sheets of rain like that here.

 

 

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Closing in on 4.5 inches. Should easily top 5 as that heavy band rotates into Baltimore. Guess I could hit 6 if it stuck around awhile.

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All local PWS around me in Germantown are pushing 5". There is one at 8" out with no other PWS nearby, so it's quite suspect, but the way the rain is coming down right over its location and me right now... yeah, lots of rain.

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Flash Flood Warning
VAC059-107-153-683-220430-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0053.180722T0129Z-180722T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
929 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  South central Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Manassas in northern Virginia...

* Until 1230 AM EDT.

* At 929 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the area.
  Four to six inches of rain have fallen. An additional one to three
  inches of rain is expected. Flash flooding is expected to begin
  shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Centreville, South Riding, Linton Hall, Chantilly, Bull Run,
  Manassas, Sudley, Manassas Park, Gainesville, Nokesville and
  Catharpin.

This includes flood prone locations
Bull Run Post Office Road...
Piper Lane between Route 28 and Observation Road...
Spruce Wood Drive at Lucasville Road...
Hastings Drive from Grant Ave to Lake Jackson Dr...
Brent Street at Bartow Street...
Main Street in Downtown Manassas...
Liberia Aveue at Quarry Road...
Winters Branch near Manassas Regional Airport...
Euclid Avenue near Euclid Court...
Beauregard Avenue...
Peabody Street from Gladstone St to Hazel Drive...
Hospital Way...
Foster Drive at Dean Drive...
Public Works Drive...
and Hastings Dr and Magnolia Grove Dr near Hendley Rd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

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Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
922 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

VAC059-153-600-685-220230-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180722T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
City of Fairfax VA-Fairfax VA-City of Manassas Park VA-
Prince William VA-
922 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR
FAIRFAX AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF
FAIRFAX AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK...

At 918 PM EDT, the Fairfax County 911 center reported a water rescue
along Woodburn Road near Spicewood Drive and the Prince William
County 911 Center reported a water rescue at the intersection of Old
Church Road and Crockett Road. Doppler radar indicated heavy rain
across the warned area with amounts estimated to be between 4 and 8
inches. Additional rainfall amounts up to one inch are expected this
evening.

Creeks and streams continue to rapidly rise with several above flood
stage. Numerous roads are closed due to high water as well.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Centreville, Dale City, Reston, Annandale, Springfield, Fairfax,
Vienna, Groveton, Mantua, Fort Belvoir, Woodbridge, Quantico, Lake
Ridge, Burke, Oakton, Chantilly, Lincolnia, Tysons Corner, Montclair
and Lorton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
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I've been watching that blob of heavy rain moving up the bay. Chesapeake Beach has been getting crushed. Just heard a rumble of thunder to my south and the rain is really picking up. I think it's about to get real here in AA country. 

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2.67” here so far...should top 3” before it’s done. Nothing like to my east but certainly a deluge.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Water rescues in Bethesda

 

 

Eh, more like car stalled out in about 18" of water.

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