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George BM

July Discobs Thread

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That's not good to see.

Imagine if this was a mid winter SECS  :-)   Hopefully it just requires fine tunning, from what I read 3 months ago I thought it was good / better than the current model.  

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

HRRR keeps shifting the death band around gradually.  Back a shade east on the 14z.

15z well east, back to Annapolis.

Ellicott City 3.0 today...calling it.

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.80 since this event started this am.

Also, if you want it to really open up, order some chinese takeout.  It was light to drizzle for me a while back. As soon as I ordered and had to pick it up, whamo! Probably picked up .5 in those 30 minutes.

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Days like today are what make me laugh when people say, "This area is hot too..." when I tell them from Louisiana.

 

That I'm not going to break 70 degrees today in July... my god, this is why I moved here.

 

And I love the rain too. About to take a nice Jebwalk... in my sleep, comfortably in my bed.

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46 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

HRRR keeps shifting the death band around gradually.  Back a shade east on the 14z.

15z well east, back to Annapolis.

lol the HRRR

16z has it over the bay.

 

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

64/63 with 0.34" so far.

Feels like a fall day today. Amazing for late July.

Wow, I'm surprised we have such a discrepancy. I just checked and .82" here so far, and while I was out there, my garden smiled at me.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Wow, I'm surprised we have such a discrepancy. I just checked and .82" here so far, and while I was out there, my garden smiled at me.

Hmmm... I was going by the nearest station on Wunderground. Sometimes its precip totals seem low, so maybe it was more than that in reality. Another nearby station has almost 0.7".

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Flood warning for Stafford Co.

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Stafford County in northern Virginia...
  The City of Fredericksburg in central Virginia...
  Spotsylvania County in central Virginia...

* Until 845 PM EDT.

* At 247 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
  flooding. Two to three inches of rain have already fallen and an
  additional 1 to 3 inches are expected. This will cause creeks and
  streams to rise out of their banks.

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And then we'll probably have some freak heat wave in December where we actually get the July-ish temperatures. Welcome to Virginia!

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So far, based on storm totals the Euro's rainfall output is not verifying where as the HRR seems to be doing much better.

Heaviest rainfall has been way more West then modeled. Whether that changes after 5 PM into the early evening I am not sure. 

 

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